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AUD/USD

  • #96,321
  • Apr 8, 2016 8:07pm Apr 8, 2016 8:07pm
Quoting galvcore
I think I'm finally ready to call this AUD bull run as being over, trading for the downside now.
I doubt it, the market marker will make it go up to at least .82, and people will start thinking the downtrend is over and start buying then they will make it go down to .79 and everyone will think it's going down because it broke .80 psychological level to .67 but they will only make it go down to .77 to trap traders, then they will push it higher to .91 and people will think for sure the downtrend is over and we are only heading higher & they will start buying again and then the market maker will push it all the way down to .72 where it will be the maximum down we will go this year then you will wake up and realize it was all a dream.
  • #96,322
  • Apr 8, 2016 8:18pm Apr 8, 2016 8:18pm
had a quality 4H divergence buy trade off AUDUSD on Friday.

regards to daily, .7490 decent support to be beaten for bears to start taking control. i'm also leaning to the bear camp atm.
  • #96,323
  • Apr 8, 2016 9:13pm Apr 8, 2016 9:13pm
Quoting Vorex
{quote} I doubt it, the market marker will make it go up to at least .82, and people will start thinking the downtrend is over and start buying then they will make it go down to .79 and everyone will think it's going down because it broke .80 psychological level to .67 but they will only make it go down to .77 to trap traders, then they will push it higher to .91 and people will think for sure the downtrend is over and we are only heading higher & they will start buying again and then the market maker will push it all the way down to .72 where it...
Market makers dont change trends they dont have enough liquidity. ATM banks are holding shorts on aud this is why its failed to go back to .77. Only banks can move markets and only the state of an economy will determine price not the charts or market makers.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,324
  • Apr 10, 2016 9:36am Apr 10, 2016 9:36am
Quoting galvcore
I think I'm finally ready to call this AUD bull run as being over, trading for the downside now.
I don't agree, or at least I wouldn't say there's been any clear confirmation yet. I maintain a bullish bias, but would love for it to move to high 74s to take bigger long positions.

I think in the next few months there will be broad USD weakness.
  • #96,325
  • Apr 10, 2016 9:38am Apr 10, 2016 9:38am
Quoting galvcore
I think I'm finally ready to call this AUD bull run as being over, trading for the downside now.
I called the top around 0.7729/0.7713, missed the top by 7, aiming for LL, although... I am not in :/
  • #96,326
  • Apr 10, 2016 3:53pm Apr 10, 2016 3:53pm
nice review of the lng markets atm (bloomberg) LNG Backers Face Comatose Market as Oil Shows Signs of Revival
  • #96,327
  • Apr 10, 2016 6:31pm Apr 10, 2016 6:31pm
This is what scares me

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...flation-persi/

Australia will be in the firing line as its really failed to transit fast from a quarry. Innovation has been slow and red tape in this country is making it bureaucratic mess.
  • #96,328
  • Apr 10, 2016 8:04pm Apr 10, 2016 8:04pm
Quoting lasty
This is what scares me http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...flation-persi/ Australia will be in the firing line as its really failed to transit fast from a quarry. Innovation has been slow and red tape in this country is making it bureaucratic mess.
And whats the 1st thing a company says before they go broke. "Dont worry we have everything under control"
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,329
  • Apr 10, 2016 8:13pm Apr 10, 2016 8:13pm
missed the short this moring, will wait for a pull back and do a swing short to 0.75 first target and beyond.
  • #96,330
  • Apr 10, 2016 8:22pm Apr 10, 2016 8:22pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Market makers dont change trends they dont have enough liquidity. ATM banks are holding shorts on aud this is why its failed to go back to .77. Only banks can move markets and only the state of an economy will determine price not the charts or market makers.
Do you know banks are short AUD or is this speculation? If you know, how?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #96,331
  • Apr 10, 2016 8:34pm Apr 10, 2016 8:34pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Do you know banks are short AUD or is this speculation? If you know, how?
Banks hold very little these days .. Most of their prop desks have been shut down ..
The ones who hold the positions are the funds .. They are more than likely are long AUD given the yield play but that's a guess.
  • #96,332
  • Apr 10, 2016 9:10pm Apr 10, 2016 9:10pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Do you know banks are short AUD or is this speculation? If you know, how?
Was announced on sky business news monday the 4th.


Ive talked to a bank trader about this and yes their guide lines have changes since "black Monday Jan 15 2015". They have a limit to the liquidity they can trade with. amongst other things. He also stated that banks alone can move the market up to 50 pips in normal conditions but to get the trends the bank clients need to follow suit along with fund mangers and institutions ect...

Market makers are there other side of the trade.

When ever a trade is placed there has to be someone on the other side to take that trade. When you place a sell order someone has to buy it. When you place a buy order someone has to sell it.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,333
  • Apr 10, 2016 9:18pm Apr 10, 2016 9:18pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Do you know banks are short AUD or is this speculation? If you know, how?
It was Australian banks that were mentioned.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,334
  • Apr 10, 2016 10:33pm Apr 10, 2016 10:33pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} I don't agree, or at least I wouldn't say there's been any clear confirmation yet. I maintain a bullish bias, but would love for it to move to high 74s to take bigger long positions. I think in the next few months there will be broad USD weakness.
I think you will get your high 74s fills. Does look like it wants to do at least one more test of 7500 and below.

Not sure if AU is actually that bullish, will prefer to say its neutral for the mid term. It now looks increasingly likely that it may come down after 7850 and above.
  • #96,335
  • Apr 11, 2016 1:27am Apr 11, 2016 1:27am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} I think you will get your high 74s fills. Does look like it wants to do at least one more test of 7500 and below. Not sure if AU is actually that bullish, will prefer to say its neutral for the mid term. It now looks increasingly likely that it may come down after 7850 and above.
I would say its ranging somewhere between 74-78.
  • #96,336
  • Apr 11, 2016 8:01am Apr 11, 2016 8:01am
Having bounced from 0.7485-90 horizontal support, the AUDUSD presently challenges to short-term descending trend-line, a break of which, at 0.7600 now, can quickly trigger its rise to 0.7655 and 0.7725.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 32 KB
  • #96,337
  • Edited 8:58am Apr 11, 2016 8:15am | Edited 8:58am
Trying a short from here at 7598...... don't think this is ready to move up yet. Trade off if it hits 7630

Edit:

Trade closed 7596......... not sure if this will hit 7620, not gonna risk

Re-shorted at 7616
  • #96,338
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:14am Apr 11, 2016 9:14am
Quoting 10cents
Trying a short from here at 7598...... don't think this is ready to move up yet. Trade off if it hits 7630 Edit: Trade closed 7596......... not sure if this will hit 7620, not gonna risk Re-shorted at 7616
Waiting for a short at 7599. I've been selling at spikes since March. Overall, its been profitable but really frustrating.
  • #96,339
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:26am Apr 11, 2016 9:26am
Quoting dejcire13
{quote} Waiting for a short at 7599. I've been selling at spikes since March. Overall, its been profitable but really frustrating.
That's just a short term short, i have the stop set at 7645. Looking at around 7500 to close it. I hope it works out well.

I won't be surprise if this pair grinds up all the the way to above 7850 over next few weeks.
  • #96,340
  • Apr 11, 2016 10:38pm Apr 11, 2016 10:38pm
Closed shorts..... not working as expected.

Not gonna look for long term shorts until at least 7850.
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