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  • #221
  • Apr 7, 2016 9:37pm Apr 7, 2016 9:37pm
Hi Quinton

I'd also like your opinion on AUD/USD. It broke slightly lower on this latest drop than your previously established level, but managed to hold there for about 7 hours. Now for about three hours it has been building a foundation for a rally. Do you think it has enough legs in it this time to move up?

Cheers
  • #222
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:05pm Apr 7, 2016 10:05pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Hi Quinton I see NZD/JPY made it back up to .74 now .7381. I would guess that you would not expect the pullback to reach the golden level .7443 but maybe go short somewhere near it? Or does your approach require contact with golden level in this case?

You'd be surprised how quickly a level can get reached that "looks far away". As for as my expectations, I try to have none, as it's impossible to predict what price will do. I was already aware of that 74.00 level and the fact that it could get hit and cause price to decline further, but I decided to only draw the golden levels with the best definition and price. Could price continue further down and we miss an entry at those higher levels? Sure. But such is the game of waiting for the best setups.

Below is how PA behaved around the 74.00 level. Is it golden? Almost. Certainly good for a scalp of no more than 20-30 pips going by the quality of the level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #223
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:16pm Apr 7, 2016 10:16pm
Quoting Blackopal
Hi Quinton I'd also like your opinion on AUD/USD. It broke slightly lower on this latest drop than your previously established level, but managed to hold there for about 7 hours. Now for about three hours it has been building a foundation for a rally. Do you think it has enough legs in it this time to move up? Cheers

Again, the urge is always there to predict. It's a habit you need to kill in order to become profitable. I don't say this in a condescending way at all since, it is almost a default stance that most people bring to trading. The FF threads are full of these guesses and predictions.

I have absolutely no idea how far or even if AUD/USD will rally. In fact, it is impossible to predict. Nobody knows. What I can tell about the current state of the AUD/USD market is this:

It's currently within a range. Long-term it looks a bit topish, so I have a bias toward shorts. However other than .7637 which already yielded a great short, I see no gold level to be mined. Would I re-short at .7637? Only if short-term PA plays ball since it has already been used and levels do lose strength over time.

I hope this helps identify the mindset needed a bit better. Predicting can be fun, but it does not lead to profits.

Q
  • #224
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:30pm Apr 7, 2016 10:30pm
Quoting Quinton
{quote} You'd be surprised how quickly a level can get reached that "looks far away". As for as my expectations, I try to have none, as it's impossible to predict what price will do. I was already aware of that 74.00 level and the fact that it could get hit and cause price to decline further, but I decided to only draw the golden levels with the best definition and price. Could price continue further down and we miss an entry at those higher levels? Sure. But such is the game of waiting for the best setups. Below is how PA behaved around the 74.00...

Thanks for reply Quinton. I will wait and see if it can reach your levels. With the recent Yen strength, this one is an appealing short. I see the golden levels here are mostly defined by the lows. Is there any significance to this in relation to the strength of the levels? ie is a short to be considered more or less likely to work with this formation? Not meaning to pick the bone, just trying to learn as much as possible.

And thanks for reply on AUD. .7637 certainly yielded well yesterday. Somebody unloaded heavily there.

And I appreciate the mind set guidance. I do believe the charts are the best approach. Fundamentals and news impact on the charts, but timing is so important in making profits, and who knows when the fundamentals will reflect in the price. 10 pips away or a 1000?
  • #225
  • Edited 11:05pm Apr 7, 2016 10:41pm | Edited 11:05pm
Quoting fisheggs
{quote} Will be interesting to see how yesterdays Aussie level is received and sebsequent reaction. {image}
Quoting Quinton
{quote} What I can tell about the current state of the AUD/USD market is this: It's currently within a range. Long-term it looks a bit topish, so I have a bias toward shorts. However other than .7637 which already yielded a great short, I see no gold level to be mined. Would I re-short at .7637? Only if short-term PA plays ball since it has already been used and levels do lose strength over time. Q
I also thought that AU, EU, GU now look as they are at some strong support levels in their ranges
As for AU I see that MA 200 on H4 is coming with possibly more support to go long from this level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD-H4-160408z.png Size: 74 KB
  • #226
  • Apr 8, 2016 1:02am Apr 8, 2016 1:02am
Quoting Quinton
Took that long here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post8857305 A reload at the level requires a confluence factor which this TL now provides. However, PA is bearish. Expect a small scalp if anything. It's an older level now. Q
Sorry I did't realize you just post GBPUSD levels
  • #227
  • Apr 8, 2016 1:41am Apr 8, 2016 1:41am
WTF, he has posted AUD/USD, gold, NZD/JPY (in fact many JPY charts) open your eyes and perhaps look at previous pages
  • #228
  • Apr 8, 2016 4:07am Apr 8, 2016 4:07am
Quoting nimbinsstone
WTF, he has posted AUD/USD, gold, NZD/JPY (in fact many JPY charts) open your eyes and perhaps look at previous pages

Carlostedo has posted several of interest also. With Respect, Carlostedo, please continue with your posts.
  • #229
  • Apr 8, 2016 5:39am Apr 8, 2016 5:39am
Quoting carlostedo
{quote} Sorry I did't realize you just post GBPUSD levels

No problem. You might come up with slightly different levels on the same chart. Then one can compare further.

Q
  • #230
  • Apr 8, 2016 6:02am Apr 8, 2016 6:02am
Quoting BillGates
Q, How can you tell a pair is overbought/oversold, is there any candlestick/price pattern? thanks
I usually do not use candlesticks since a big chunk of the move get eaten up in the confirmation pattern. However, there are patterns which I will post to the intro. Usually the best way to get a feel for price overextension is to learn from examples of when PA hits up against the golden levels and when it does not.

Q
  • #231
  • Apr 8, 2016 6:41am Apr 8, 2016 6:41am
Quoting Quinton
{quote} I usually do not use candlesticks since a big chunk of the move get eaten up in the confirmation pattern. However, there are patterns which I will post to the intro. Usually the best way to get a feel for price overextension is to learn from examples of when PA hits up against the golden levels and when it does not. Q

Let me add to my previous post. There are occassion where candlestick are useful and can be used for entry. Esp, when you have a level that has already been tested a few times, like recently with EUR/USD:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post8860352

Other times they are used during analysis:
Look at this strong level on EUR/CHF. The PA however if shooting back up with strong momentum as the bull candlestick pattern shows. Therefore we move to BE quickly on that short and take quick profit. That pattern is telling us that the short is likely to be a scalp and not a longer term hold.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHFM30.png Size: 39 KB



Hope this helps.

Q
  • #232
  • Apr 8, 2016 8:11am Apr 8, 2016 8:11am
Quinton,
Are these UC levels significant? Any thoughts? Thx!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #233
  • Apr 8, 2016 9:50am Apr 8, 2016 9:50am
101-102 could be a turning point in USDJPY. Worth watching atm.
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  • #234
  • Apr 8, 2016 10:40am Apr 8, 2016 10:40am
Quoting asgcorp
101-102 could be a turning point in USDJPY. Worth watching atm. {image}
There is gold to be mined within that upcoming range. Will dig in later to look for golden levels.
  • #235
  • Apr 8, 2016 1:22pm Apr 8, 2016 1:22pm
Quoting KZman
Quinton, Are these UC levels significant? Any thoughts? Thx!!! {image}
I think another member pointed this one out before it was hit on March 31. I usually like taking my long from level are nested a bit deeper in a range. Let me put it this way: Another long from there would not make for a super high probability trade. I would reduce my regular order size by half.

Q
  • #236
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:49pm Apr 8, 2016 2:49pm
Quoting Quinton
{quote} I think another member pointed this one out before it was hit on March 31. I usually like taking my long from level are nested a bit deeper in a range. Let me put it this way: Another long from there would not make for a super high probability trade. I would reduce my regular order size by half. Q
Thanks! Have a great weekend!
  • #237
  • Apr 8, 2016 4:45pm Apr 8, 2016 4:45pm
Quoting asgcorp
EG top is where UJ bottom is, can't call a bottom out yet on UJ. Here's EG vs UJ weekly correlation. inversly correlated. {image}
asgcorp how about the 0.8412 - 0.8367 level EG
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #238
  • Apr 8, 2016 5:12pm Apr 8, 2016 5:12pm
Quoting factlover
{quote} Quinton and friends of this thread, I'd like to suggest a simple obvious improvement to the golden mining process. It would be great to have a separate dedicated thread for each pair which deserves attention. So it would be much easier to track all related posts and monitor it in real time. Quinton, if you like the idea, can you please start new threads for your pairs of interest, named for ex. "Golden Levels: EURUSD", "Golden Levels: AUDUSD", etc. And you can continue to use this original thread for your common announcements and educational...
or updated shot from excel spreadsheet with pairs in row, in this thread
  • #239
  • Apr 8, 2016 5:46pm Apr 8, 2016 5:46pm
Quoting miro1360
{quote} or updated shot from excel spreadsheet with pairs in row, in this thread

Got something in the works... stay tuned.

Q
  • #240
  • Apr 9, 2016 5:09am Apr 9, 2016 5:09am
USD/CAD


An amazing lineup of factors: the exponential daily 200 MA and long-term .50 fib made price stop right before the 1.3300 area and caused it to drop 400 pips.
Price remains in a range, esp. due to uncertainty in the oil market (after large drops like the one over the last months markets tend to range as traders/investors either lick their wounds or remain uncertain about whether it is time to go in for a bargain or wait for further price depreciation). Therefore there is a possibility for price to respect this level again

Further up, the simple daily 200 MA looks to be lining up with a high level @ 1.3400. However if price makes it this far, any fading of this level should be considered counter-trend and therefore profit should be taken quickly.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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