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  • #10,921
  • Apr 6, 2016 9:31am Apr 6, 2016 9:31am
Quoting ddaytrader
Yesterday three trades +2 ticks +12 ticks +1 tick and Monday ONE TRADE + 12 ticks and today one trade +12 ticks for a net of just over 37 ES ticks, which is the equivalent of just under 94 YM ticks (all net of commish and fees). If I am not mistaken, we expect the Fed minutes this afternoon, so I am going to sit tight and keep my powder dry until after the release, and possibly I may be done for the day. I swept $1500 from my little account at the end of last week, and started this week with a little over $2000 as a re-boot. My goal is simple: I...
DD, would you mind sharing more information about your trade management. I have migrated back to 5M bars, which I believe you use primarily, and would appreciate any ideas/thoughts. I'm not sure if its fixed, but I'm interested to know how/when you reduce your risk.

Thanks for the advice.
  • #10,922
  • Apr 6, 2016 10:07am Apr 6, 2016 10:07am
Quoting ddaytrader
... I hope all are doing well. FWIW my trades have been more faders than flags this week (fading highs/lows of the opening range).
Good stuff!
With all that fading, i hope you rode that range from 37 to 47
  • #10,923
  • Apr 6, 2016 12:32pm Apr 6, 2016 12:32pm
DD always good to have a plan in place. I have been doing well 25 on monday 60 yesterday been averaging about 150 ticks a week which is nice money with 3 contracts
  • #10,924
  • Apr 6, 2016 1:22pm Apr 6, 2016 1:22pm
Quoting JMaurice
{quote} DD, would you mind sharing more information about your trade management. I have migrated back to 5M bars, which I believe you use primarily, and would appreciate any ideas/thoughts. I'm not sure if its fixed, but I'm interested to know how/when you reduce your risk. Thanks for the advice.
For example, this morning I sold short 41.50 and my stop loss was initially 3 points, but the high print after my entry was 41.75, so once price moved 4-5 ticks in my favor, I moved my stop loss down to 42, so my 3 point initial stop was reduced to 2 ticks. I used a 3 point profit target.


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  • #10,925
  • Apr 6, 2016 1:25pm Apr 6, 2016 1:25pm
Quoting qwerty00
{quote} Good stuff! With all that fading, i hope you rode that range from 37 to 47
I faded the high of the opening 5 minute range as that 41.50 level had been a brief premkt support and I was anticipating it to be resistance on the first RTH test. I made my 3 points on that trade and called it quits for the day. I tend to do best when I quit while ahead. My worse days are those where I am ahead, I press my luck, and I fall behind. That has been a recipe for disaster for me. So I try to trade within my weaknesses.
  • #10,926
  • Apr 6, 2016 1:27pm Apr 6, 2016 1:27pm
Quoting Divergence
DD always good to have a plan in place. I have been doing well 25 on monday 60 yesterday been averaging about 150 ticks a week which is nice money with 3 contracts
I'm gunning for 60 ES ticks per week myself, which is the equivalent of 150 ticks on the YM. I agree, $750 per contract per week X 3 contracts is nice money for me.
  • #10,927
  • Apr 6, 2016 3:21pm Apr 6, 2016 3:21pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} You do not know before it happens. This system puts probabilities on our side - but not certainty.
Thanks. So how do you decide which one to trade according to this system? You could buy a 123 and then it would turn into a 2b so how exactly are you supposed to enter?
  • #10,928
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:54pm Apr 6, 2016 6:54pm
Quoting Ygr
{quote} Thanks. So how do you decide which one to trade according to this system? You could buy a 123 and then it would turn into a 2b so how exactly are you supposed to enter?
That is where you're own observations and back testing come into play. I have found, for example, that where price is relative to a 20 EMA on the 5 minute ES is a good "filter". Not perfect, and it certainly does not yield certain outcomes.

Today, for example, ES had a perfect 123 short (perfect in that it had the `123 and a trendline break to support it. Price was also below the 20 ema, and the entry was below the 20 ema. However, price only dropped 1.5 points before reversing. This trade would have resulted in a loss of 2 to 2.25 points. However, that stop loss would also have been a long entry for the 2B reversal, and the entry price was above the ema. Using a trailing stop (either below the swing lows or using the 20 ema as a trailing stop, would have yielded a 10 point trade. Even someone taking an automatic 3 or 4 point profit would have been ahead after these two trades. Later in the day (not shown) there was a similar situations - a 123 below the 20 ema that soon became a 2B reversal long entry with the entry above the ema. The short would have been a 2 to 3 point loss, depending upon your trading plan, and the long would have yielded an 8.5 point profit at the close.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There are many ways to plan your trades, but there is only one way to trade your plan - and that is to take every set up that meets your trading plan's criteria, and honor every stop, and take profits exactly as you have planned.
  • #10,929
  • Apr 6, 2016 7:03pm Apr 6, 2016 7:03pm
Wow DD, thanks for the informative post. Do you have any recommendations for tp/SL for ES?

Div, do you have any recs for SL/tp for cl and my?

Thank you all soon much.
  • #10,930
  • Apr 7, 2016 6:51am Apr 7, 2016 6:51am
Quoting Ygr
Wow DD, thanks for the informative post. Do you have any recommendations for tp/SL for ES? Div, do you have any recs for SL/tp for cl and my? Thank you all soon much.
I think you have misunderstood the nature of trading as we understand it. We all share certain basic principles of price action, but the specifics of a trading plan really need to come from you. All we can do is provide examples from our own experience. But those examples will not do much for anyone else. You need to settle down and do some work, which involves picking a market to trade, watching it intently during the hours which will be your trading day, and then observe the patterns that repeat often enough and with enough regularity to build a trading plan around. Most here in this thread are using the 123 and 2B, though not all use the same forms. In addition, I use support/resistance in the form of recent prior highs & lows and I also use the opening range of the instrument I am trading.

Step 1: Choose your trading instrument
Step 2: Decide what hours you are going to trade, e.g. for me I primarily trade 9:30 to 11:30 Eastern
Step 3: Observe the price action during your trading hours for as long as it takes, preferably everyday, until you are able to identify repeating patterns in real time
Step 4: Hypothesize what might become a consistently profitable trading plan from those patterns, and write it up
Step 5: Back test said trading plan
Step 6: Assuming the results of the back test show a profit, then proceed to
Step 7: Forward test the plan in real time real market conditions. Assuming a successful forward test,
Step 8: Go Live and make $$$$$$$!

Your stop loss and your profit target will be your own, and you will have the confidence you need to execute your trading plan flawlessly, which is, as Douglas would say, the very essence of trading in the zone.
  • #10,931
  • Apr 7, 2016 7:04am Apr 7, 2016 7:04am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} I think you have misunderstood the nature of trading as we understand it. We all share certain basic principles of price action, but the specifics of a trading plan really need to come from you. All we can do is provide examples from our own experience. But those examples will not do much for anyone else. You need to settle down and do some work, which involves picking a market to trade, watching it intently during the hours which will be your trading day, and then observe the patterns that repeat often enough and with enough regularity...
PURE GOLD
  • #10,932
  • Apr 7, 2016 8:52am Apr 7, 2016 8:52am
Opening Range Fade works again for 3 ES points in the little account.
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  • #10,933
  • Apr 7, 2016 8:54am Apr 7, 2016 8:54am
Dow sideways waiting for a trend then the pullback
  • #10,934
  • Apr 7, 2016 9:13am Apr 7, 2016 9:13am
Quoting ddaytrader
Opening Range Fade works again for 3 ES points in the little account. {image}
good work dd well done
Become the casino
  • #10,935
  • Apr 7, 2016 9:14am Apr 7, 2016 9:14am
Quoting Divergence
Dow sideways waiting for a trend then the pullback
yes slow start so far
Become the casino
  • #10,936
  • Apr 7, 2016 9:20am Apr 7, 2016 9:20am
2b short at 04
Become the casino
  • #10,937
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:42am Apr 7, 2016 11:42am
today's trade:

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Become the casino
  • #10,938
  • Apr 7, 2016 1:25pm Apr 7, 2016 1:25pm
Quoting erasmus66
today's trade:
Way to go, Erasmus! Looks like volatility might be picking back up. Let's hope so!
  • #10,939
  • Apr 7, 2016 4:06pm Apr 7, 2016 4:06pm
Quoting Ygr
{quote} Thanks. So how do you decide which one to trade according to this system? You could buy a 123 and then it would turn into a 2b so how exactly are you supposed to enter?

Ygr, what DD wrote is so true. What works for one person, does not necessarily work for others. Finding your own trading style, your 'edge' as it were can only be determined by yourself. It is basically a journey of discovery - finding out what works and what doesn't, which timescales fit your plan etc etc

I find that if you can come up with a reason as to why a 123 should occur in the first place, then, when it does, it is a far better certainty.

Here's an example of what i mean;

CL earlier this evening;

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The 123 occured off of the 50% fibonacci retracement level of the prior long cycle. Whether you believe it will go to new highs from here, thus how you decide to trade it, or move your stop placement once in profit, is an entirely different matter, i am merely showing an example of when to expect a 123, but there are literally dozens of other examples i could show.
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #10,940
  • Apr 7, 2016 9:37pm Apr 7, 2016 9:37pm
Thanks DD. I perfectly understand if people don't want to spoon-feed, although there is a part of me that thinks that if there's no harm in sharing something that already works why not share if that will help others springboard into finding something that works for them. But anyway I've learned aot from your posts sothank you so much.
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