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Flag trading the trend

  • #10,901
  • Apr 1, 2016 7:53am Apr 1, 2016 7:53am
hit 2 nice runs for +40 an +30. YM in the AM might be coming back
  • #10,902
  • Apr 1, 2016 7:57am Apr 1, 2016 7:57am
Quoting degil
Would be zero trades for me...What did you do ???
Congrats to that brave fellow, degil : 100% correct

No trend = no flags to trade.

Not so easy to stay flat for 2 hours, but it gets easier with age...

Good weekends everybody.
  • #10,903
  • Apr 4, 2016 6:37am Apr 4, 2016 6:37am
looks like we're going down
Become the casino
  • #10,904
  • Apr 4, 2016 6:44am Apr 4, 2016 6:44am
Quoting erasmus66
looks like we're going down
More likely we see a test of last week's RTH high before any serious down side.
  • #10,905
  • Apr 4, 2016 7:14am Apr 4, 2016 7:14am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} More likely we see a test of last week's RTH high before any serious down side.
ES came within 2 ticks of Friday's high and stalled. You might be right now, Erasmus. This is looking like fairly weak follow through given the strength we saw Friday, and the fact that that strength reversed a reversal.

I took 3 points ES long 62.75 to 65.75.
  • #10,906
  • Apr 4, 2016 7:39am Apr 4, 2016 7:39am
Fade the extremes and wait for the breakout, imo (i.e. sell high & buy low until breakout, then sell low and buy lower or buy high and sell higher).
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  • #10,907
  • Apr 4, 2016 7:56am Apr 4, 2016 7:56am
Quoting ddaytrader
Fade the extremes and wait for the breakout, imo (i.e. sell high & buy low until breakout, then sell low and buy lower or buy high and sell higher). {image}

Breakout down - sell low and buy back lower ...
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  • #10,908
  • Apr 4, 2016 8:29am Apr 4, 2016 8:29am
unfortunately nature called and a 2b short to get back in trend occurred from 92 for almost 50 ticks need to schedule bodily functions better up 15 though today. I am taking a page out of DD book and will return at 100PM est to grab the rest
  • #10,909
  • Apr 4, 2016 11:24am Apr 4, 2016 11:24am
Thanks DD 123 short back into the trend at 81 that's the ticket
  • #10,910
  • Apr 4, 2016 11:41am Apr 4, 2016 11:41am
Quoting Divergence
Thanks DD 123 short back into the trend at 81 that's the ticket
Nice going, D. Lately I have found we get 1 good one in the morning if that, and then 1 to 2 god ones in the afternoon. Activity level has really dried up. I'm back to taking the first 3 to 4 points the ES gives me (12 to 16 ES ticks which is the equivalent of 30 to 40 YM ticks).
  • #10,911
  • Apr 4, 2016 11:46am Apr 4, 2016 11:46am
Just to say that i am not abandoning you all, just that i base a most of my trades on EW so as to predict what to expect next. Thereafter, it is 123's and flag etc, but not many will understand the labeling etc, hence i will keep it minimal.

Chose FTSE this evening, but Dax & Dow had similar reversal patterns back to short side...

FTSE before;

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looking for fresh LL, pullback to create rev C&H possibility;

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  • #10,912
  • Apr 4, 2016 11:51am Apr 4, 2016 11:51am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Nice going, D. Lately I have found we get 1 good one in the morning if that, and then 1 to 2 god ones in the afternoon. Activity level has really dried up. I'm back to taking the first 3 to 4 points the ES gives me (12 to 16 ES ticks which is the equivalent of 30 to 40 YM ticks).
well done guys .. will take a look into reliability of signals post 13:00
Become the casino
  • #10,913
  • Apr 4, 2016 1:19pm Apr 4, 2016 1:19pm
I had researched over W/E and found the same thing DD though if I made my coin in the AM then I stand aside in PM. Nice charts CG
  • #10,914
  • Apr 4, 2016 11:13pm Apr 4, 2016 11:13pm
If i had stayed up all night i could have traded my fave set-up!

Update to above reverse C&H;

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Quite annoying that it happened during futures, that would have been a max lot for me.
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #10,915
  • Apr 5, 2016 1:15am Apr 5, 2016 1:15am
Quoting The Cableguy
If i had stayed up all night i could have traded my fave set-up! Update to above reverse C&H; {image} Quite annoying that it happened during futures, that would have been a max lot for me.
CG - what timescale are you using on your chart please?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #10,916
  • Apr 5, 2016 1:39am Apr 5, 2016 1:39am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} CG - what timescale are you using on your chart please?
Hi TP,

Those are set to 20 tick for FTSE. I have two charts open for each instrument. I firstly use range bars, but the settings vary for each index/pair, due to different values.

I then use fast tick candlesticks for more detail. Watching both helps to keep the overall plan for the bigger picture in sight. I seldom use time charts any longer, except hourly and daily perhaps to help labeling waves.

Hope that helps.
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #10,917
  • Apr 5, 2016 9:30am Apr 5, 2016 9:30am
Quoting The Cableguy
{quote} Hi TP, Those are set to 20 tick for FTSE. I have two charts open for each instrument. I firstly use range bars, but the settings vary for each index/pair, due to different values. I then use fast tick candlesticks for more detail. Watching both helps to keep the overall plan for the bigger picture in sight. I seldom use time charts any longer, except hourly and daily perhaps to help labeling waves. Hope that helps.
That helps a lot -many thanks Cableguy. I am trying to learn more about Range bars.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #10,918
  • Apr 5, 2016 7:46pm Apr 5, 2016 7:46pm
I am still on page 484 so please bear with me. How do you know if a 123 is going to turn into a 2b or not?
  • #10,919
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:11am Apr 6, 2016 6:11am
Quoting Ygr
I am still on page 484 so please bear with me. How do you know if a 123 is going to turn into a 2b or not?
You do not know before it happens. This system puts probabilities on our side - but not certainty.
  • #10,920
  • Apr 6, 2016 7:06am Apr 6, 2016 7:06am
Yesterday three trades +2 ticks +12 ticks +1 tick and Monday ONE TRADE + 12 ticks and today one trade +12 ticks for a net of just over 37 ES ticks, which is the equivalent of just under 94 YM ticks (all net of commish and fees).

If I am not mistaken, we expect the Fed minutes this afternoon, so I am going to sit tight and keep my powder dry until after the release, and possibly I may be done for the day. I swept $1500 from my little account at the end of last week, and started this week with a little over $2000 as a re-boot. My goal is simple: I want to average 3 ES points per day. Once I am trading multiple contracts, I will take 3 point profits on half and I will let the other half run for a potential intraday swing. The last two weeks I had too many 3 to 6 point profits run back to +1 or 2 ticks. I want to be able to thrive in both a low volume/low volatility environment, while also participating in the occasional big swings such as we had in Jan/Feb. I will trade 1 ES contract per $1500 of equity, and I will have a daily loss limit of $450/ per contract traded. In my experience, such losses should be rare, as that would equal 3 consecutive losses of my initial max loss. Usually I get into a trade and I can very quickly reduce my risk from an automatic 3 point stop loss to less than 2 points, and sometimes, such as this morning, to as little as 2 ticks.

I hope all are doing well. FWIW my trades have been more faders than flags this week (fading highs/lows of the opening range).
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