{quote} I like your style
- #96,182
- Apr 1, 2016 4:48am Apr 1, 2016 4:48am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2015 | 1,352 Posts
{quote} Haha, no style dude. Just trying to make some money. Although, it might take a while to reach 0.72, its a long term trade.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
- #96,197
- Apr 2, 2016 7:12am Apr 2, 2016 7:12am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,788 Posts
I posted this on NZD thread and copy here as it is relevant to AUD. I agree Long is the best bet, will only consider shorts for scalping.
Hi ninner I agree with you, it (NZD) ended up staging a good recovery back above it's break out level, which I calculate occurred at .6885. I also interpret this recovery and closing price as bullish. The daily close was above previous day's close, which the strong AUD also managed to achieve. The EUR finished 9.5 pips below it's previous day's close! The NZD has also finished the week with a strong green candle. However, none of the three regained their highs from immediately prior to the release of the news.
I've done some comparative analysis of what occurred last night to USD pairs as a result of NFP. It took the AUD, EUR and NZD approximately 2 hours to reach the lows after news. It took them appx. 2 hours to recover most of what they lost, and to reach the approximate levels they closed at. I think these time periods are good numbers to reference on similar major announcements for future NFPs, as although I haven't gone back and checked the precise results of last two NFPs, from memory there were similar impacts and time scales. So maybe wait about two hours after news before looking for true direction.
The USD/CAD took an hour and a half (true direction began here after 1.5 hrs) to add 117 pips then plunged for six and a half hours to loose 137 pips from it's high to it's close, where it finished roughly 20 pips lower than it's level before news.
The USD/JPY spiked 45 pips in first 40 minutes, then similar to USD/CAD, spent seven hours dropping 81 pips to close below pre-news levels. By close, the yen had gained about 40 pips against USD from the level it was at immediately prior to news.
So initially AUD, EUR, NZD, JPY and CAD all dropped significantly against USD, but by close NZD, EUR and AUD had staged recoveries, closing in the range they were all in 3 hours before news.
So although there were wild spikes up and down on all these pairs, which formed different chart patterns from one another which at first glance seem to indicate widely different results, the end result is nothing has changed much and they are all still trending up against the USD at this stage.
Of particular relevance, in spite of the fact that the initial break out by the NZD from it's side range pulled all the way back to it's break out point and looked weak, as noted by most members commenting, including me, it bounced up strongly again before NFP. Then immediately post NFP it spiked well below it's breakout point, and looked doomed to resume it's old range, before it then powered back up for a strong daily and weekly close Above break out level. I'll be looking to buy around .689 on Monday.
Hi ninner I agree with you, it (NZD) ended up staging a good recovery back above it's break out level, which I calculate occurred at .6885. I also interpret this recovery and closing price as bullish. The daily close was above previous day's close, which the strong AUD also managed to achieve. The EUR finished 9.5 pips below it's previous day's close! The NZD has also finished the week with a strong green candle. However, none of the three regained their highs from immediately prior to the release of the news.
I've done some comparative analysis of what occurred last night to USD pairs as a result of NFP. It took the AUD, EUR and NZD approximately 2 hours to reach the lows after news. It took them appx. 2 hours to recover most of what they lost, and to reach the approximate levels they closed at. I think these time periods are good numbers to reference on similar major announcements for future NFPs, as although I haven't gone back and checked the precise results of last two NFPs, from memory there were similar impacts and time scales. So maybe wait about two hours after news before looking for true direction.
The USD/CAD took an hour and a half (true direction began here after 1.5 hrs) to add 117 pips then plunged for six and a half hours to loose 137 pips from it's high to it's close, where it finished roughly 20 pips lower than it's level before news.
The USD/JPY spiked 45 pips in first 40 minutes, then similar to USD/CAD, spent seven hours dropping 81 pips to close below pre-news levels. By close, the yen had gained about 40 pips against USD from the level it was at immediately prior to news.
So initially AUD, EUR, NZD, JPY and CAD all dropped significantly against USD, but by close NZD, EUR and AUD had staged recoveries, closing in the range they were all in 3 hours before news.
So although there were wild spikes up and down on all these pairs, which formed different chart patterns from one another which at first glance seem to indicate widely different results, the end result is nothing has changed much and they are all still trending up against the USD at this stage.
Of particular relevance, in spite of the fact that the initial break out by the NZD from it's side range pulled all the way back to it's break out point and looked weak, as noted by most members commenting, including me, it bounced up strongly again before NFP. Then immediately post NFP it spiked well below it's breakout point, and looked doomed to resume it's old range, before it then powered back up for a strong daily and weekly close Above break out level. I'll be looking to buy around .689 on Monday.
- #96,199
- Apr 3, 2016 9:57am Apr 3, 2016 9:57am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,983 Posts
Crazy action Friday night, really sad I was asleep for it 
Continues to look very bullish, the 4h uptrend was not even approached. Seems to be heading towards weekly 100d ema at around 80c.
Continues to look very bullish, the 4h uptrend was not even approached. Seems to be heading towards weekly 100d ema at around 80c.