AUD/USD

Haha, no style dude. Just trying to make some money. Although, it might take a while to reach 0.72, its a long term trade.

I got the same idea as you.

What's interesting is the better than expected news from China today forced the au lower or should I say not above 77. Opposite to what has happened with previous china "good news". The on the other hand US found strength. AUD is strength is definitely going off the back of US weakness now. Once the bad news starts rolling in for AUD then it will fall, slowly, the couple of rate cuts from Yellen this year, I see back to low 70's.

We may see 80c if there is really bad news from US or the rates cuts are off the cards but not enough strength in Aussie economy to lift it. Commodities should consolidate, but who knows what funny business will happen there, the funky 20% earlier this month who knows... China flower festival... yeah right. Some politics there I'm sure.

Becareful with that long term view [don't know your analysis or benchmarks]. I think the US dollar could continue to weaken until the DXY lvl 94 - 93.5 is reached...same idea on the USDCHF 0.95 - 0.94

http://fxpro.ctrader.com/images/screens/fZbbn.png

Still nothing really happening IMO, waiting for some clarity.

There is certainly a war raging between the bulls and bears right now!

AUD going down, I'm going to bed, shorts opened @ 765 for next week. Have a good weekend!

Haven't watched enough news releases but price action on 15 minute chart in the lead up looked very suspicious coupled with movement afterwards. Narrow range for hours in lead up and then 3 strong up candles followed by big drop. As if it was predetermined that it was going down?Mixed news didn't justify that big a drop in my humble and limited opinion.

Not long term view, just long term trade taken. Thanks for your view.

Taking a long bet here...... 7601 filled.

50/50 chance, not too confident in this trade....

If it goes anywhere near 7450 then bets are off.

7600 should be a tough support.Fingers crossed!!

I found two levels of interest:

7550 - 7580
7660 - 7700

Either one of them may be the true support.

Edit:

I think we will get the answer by end of today's session or on monday's opening, which of the above two set of numbers is the true support.

atm looks like the buyers @ 77 made the call (50pip bounce)
time will tell, if it goes to the 1st one I will buy on monday open

Guess we will need to see where it close today and what's the opening price for next week.

This move is indeed tricky. After studying charts on 2 different time frames, i believe both supports are valid. The market got the opportunity to test both supports which opens up the target at 7730 - 7760.

Not sure if this pair is going to test today's low again...... i'm ready for it to retest today's low, but won't be surprise if it goes straight to 7730 - 7760. Shorts are definitely out of the question for me.

short, lol, only if you don't like trading a live a/c

updated COT data (as at 29-Mar-16):

Non-commercials

Long: 77,076 contracts (+ 9,145)
Short: 53,610 contracts (+3,709)

so non-commercials (speculators) are long 23,466 contracts (each contract is AUD 100,000).

They have actually been net long since the week of 16-Feb-16 when they were long around 2,800 contracts.

So right now non-commercials are long AUD 2,346,600,000. It is good to keep this amount in perspective.

Therefore for me, if there is any position to be opened then in my opinion there should be long ones.

Best to you all.

Happy weekend.

I posted this on NZD thread and copy here as it is relevant to AUD. I agree Long is the best bet, will only consider shorts for scalping.

Hi ninner I agree with you, it (NZD) ended up staging a good recovery back above it's break out level, which I calculate occurred at .6885. I also interpret this recovery and closing price as bullish. The daily close was above previous day's close, which the strong AUD also managed to achieve. The EUR finished 9.5 pips below it's previous day's close! The NZD has also finished the week with a strong green candle. However, none of the three regained their highs from immediately prior to the release of the news.

I've done some comparative analysis of what occurred last night to USD pairs as a result of NFP. It took the AUD, EUR and NZD approximately 2 hours to reach the lows after news. It took them appx. 2 hours to recover most of what they lost, and to reach the approximate levels they closed at. I think these time periods are good numbers to reference on similar major announcements for future NFPs, as although I haven't gone back and checked the precise results of last two NFPs, from memory there were similar impacts and time scales. So maybe wait about two hours after news before looking for true direction.

The USD/CAD took an hour and a half (true direction began here after 1.5 hrs) to add 117 pips then plunged for six and a half hours to loose 137 pips from it's high to it's close, where it finished roughly 20 pips lower than it's level before news.

The USD/JPY spiked 45 pips in first 40 minutes, then similar to USD/CAD, spent seven hours dropping 81 pips to close below pre-news levels. By close, the yen had gained about 40 pips against USD from the level it was at immediately prior to news.

So initially AUD, EUR, NZD, JPY and CAD all dropped significantly against USD, but by close NZD, EUR and AUD had staged recoveries, closing in the range they were all in 3 hours before news.

So although there were wild spikes up and down on all these pairs, which formed different chart patterns from one another which at first glance seem to indicate widely different results, the end result is nothing has changed much and they are all still trending up against the USD at this stage.

Of particular relevance, in spite of the fact that the initial break out by the NZD from it's side range pulled all the way back to it's break out point and looked weak, as noted by most members commenting, including me, it bounced up strongly again before NFP. Then immediately post NFP it spiked well below it's breakout point, and looked doomed to resume it's old range, before it then powered back up for a strong daily and weekly close Above break out level. I'll be looking to buy around .689 on Monday.

Longs make money, Shorts make money. Truth is money management is the most important aspect of trading.

Crazy action Friday night, really sad I was asleep for it

Continues to look very bullish, the 4h uptrend was not even approached. Seems to be heading towards weekly 100d ema at around 80c.

order pending long .7637