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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #2,361
  • Edited 9:45am Mar 30, 2016 7:27am | Edited 9:45am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,362
  • Mar 30, 2016 8:04am Mar 30, 2016 8:04am
Thursday
15:30
31/3/16
CA GDP growth
(CA GDP), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
24% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

The Fed is not going to raise interest rates in the near future, and it should provoke further pressure on the RBA policy, RBNZ and Canada.
Canada continues to rake the problem in 2015, marking a total decrease in oil prices. Despite recent small successes, we still get weak GDP data, since, despite the monthly publication - the numbers come from a two-month delay: Release March 31 will show the figures for January 2016.
The new Canadian government presented its first budget, according to the Prime Minister: "Budget is aimed primarily at people", which indirectly means additional social and infrastructure spending. It will form an additional burden of responsibility on the Bank of Canada, which has not submitted its opinion on this document.
The nearest meeting of the Bank of Canada will be held on April 13 and that will be the key to correct expectations. Recall that the markets anticipated further reduction in interest rates on the BC -0.25% to the end of 2016.

Thursday
17:30
31/3/16
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
20% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,363
  • Mar 30, 2016 9:49am Mar 30, 2016 9:49am
Quoting vvFish
{image}{image}
Good trade on the correction. So hard trading on the usd jpy for me now. Unpredictably mooving down.
  • #2,364
  • Mar 31, 2016 6:32am Mar 31, 2016 6:32am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

A small remark Switzerland.

Against the background of, say, the global mitigation of key monetary policy should not forget about the Bank of Switzerland, who never liked the growth of CHF, and that's what we have now with the course.
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Probably, it is necessary to remain vigilant to possible "stuffing" by the SNB. There is such a feeling.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,365
  • Mar 31, 2016 9:42am Mar 31, 2016 9:42am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,366
  • Mar 31, 2016 10:01am Mar 31, 2016 10:01am
Friday
15:30
01.04.16
US Number of employed outside agriculture (conflict) HARD
(US Non-Farm Employment Change), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

If Janet Yellen has turned its attention to the structure of the labor market statistics - do not expect the ease of the Non-Farm Payrolls, as the data packet will be scrutinized markets that could lead to a mixed reaction.
Preliminary view of the ADP, as it suggests to us for the continuation of the optimistic banquet hall in the labor market: 200K increase, which is higher than average growth.
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CME Group indicates 21% chance of a rate hike in June, the markets to price in a 25% expectation that, in general identical. A further reduction of expectations has occurred against the backdrop of statements by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Charles Evans, who said "very slow rate" of interest rate increase the most acceptable, and although Evans does not have the right to vote - the markets, following statements by Janet Yellen, we took it seriously enough.

The main risk for the publication of Non-Farm Payrolls is a number of important variables of this report: Non-Farm Employment Change (quantitative growth of the employed), Unemployment Rate (the percentage of unemployment), Average Hourly Earnings (dynamics of growth of wages), as well as the structure of quantitative growth (to full and part-time). Can be considered indicators and workforce involvement.

At the peak of monetary regulation by the Fed, the report is considered deeply enough, and surface analysis NFP markets often enough. Recall that in December 2015 the Federal Reserve for the first time in 9 years from the date of the start of the crisis, resorted to increase the range of its interest rate. It is expected that the tightening of monetary policy will continue in 2016, against the background that generated a lot of speculation on this subject.

This conflict within the data packet and can cause spiking market. What to do with the conflict in the indicator - by and large accept as completely avoid its probability will not work: the data in 90% of cases, publications have the time gap between their releases.

History knows how the positive aspects of the publication of the report, both positive and negative. It is necessary to understand all the risks associated with this release.

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,367
  • Apr 1, 2016 8:15am Apr 1, 2016 8:15am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,368
  • Apr 1, 2016 9:31am Apr 1, 2016 9:31am
Great weekend to everyone.
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,369
  • Apr 2, 2016 12:22am Apr 2, 2016 12:22am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Top 7 events in April 2016
March and the start of spring made their colors in the thick of the composition: a major factor certainly become coups expectations of higher interest rates the Fed and the ECB's reduction of interest rates. April will be the least vigorous, and these are the main market anticipated dose of adrenaline.

Meetings of the Reserve Bank of Australia
In March, the Fed dramatically changed the rhetoric and market expectations of an increase of the interest rate was reduced from 3 times to 1-2 (say 1.5) in 2016, which puts additional pressure on the key economy suffering from the growth of the national currency: Australia, New Zealand Canada.
Over the past month the pair rose by 500 points, and it seems only words RBA no longer enough to bring the AUD to the target level of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
In April, the RBA rhetoric can dramatically softened, reducing the likelihood of interest rate may increase significantly.
Bank Meeting will be held on 5 April. Generalizing the final reports will be published on 19 April.

Quarterly inflation report in Australia
If the RBA meeting will be held at the beginning of the month, and it is likely the markets will bask in the 4 weeks after the release of the quarterly CPI Australia may be marked by a massive surge of lunacy. The decline in inflation in the country, almost right next to the wall to supply the Australian central bank.
indicator publication will take place on 27 April.

Quarterly inflation report of New Zealand
RBNZ has cut interest rates in March, but markets expect a further decline to the end of 2016. CPI q / q last release displayed a deflation of -0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2015 and an additional reduction in its Ikv. 2016, virtually guarantees us the actions of the Central Bank.
It adds fuel to the fire and the publication date: April 18, the eve of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

The rhetoric of the Bank of Canada in respect of the new budget
April 13 held a press conference of the Bank of Canada (immediately after the rate decision and the publication of reports) which probably will set new benchmarks and strong next monetary regulator plans.
The key will be a substantive discussion on the subject of the new government's budget, presented a month earlier, in March. Budget "socially oriented" and it throws an additional expenditure of the economy calls. Perhaps, you may need additional stimulus measures by the Bank.

Quarterly GDP England
While the pound is waiting for a referendum on EU membership, which will be held June 23 key points for him are only the most urgent news on kshtalt preliminary figures look at the GDP of the first quarter 2016.
April 27 will be marked by new data estimates the state of the British economy.

FOMC meeting
The issue of the year is still relevant - the alleged actions of Americans. Expectations of increasing latent rate and is constantly changing, it is not surprising, because the FOMC - a collegial body provoking sided thinking. Any appearance of the head Janet Yellen and similar activities will throw new drivers worry markets.
It is not expected to raise rates in April, but "very" forecasts expected correction.
Especially because the Non-farm still shows mediocre, insufficient for the Bulls this Friday, the dynamics of growth of wages.
The meeting will be held April 27 in advance, Yellen may appear in public on 8 April.

Preliminary US GDP
Following the meeting of the FOMC, April 28, will be published preliminary estimates of GDP primary data of the first quarter of 2016, which added to the interest in the period of the report - "the first quarter of 2016", this is the first more or less summarizing assessment of the state of the US economy in the current year.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,370
  • Apr 2, 2016 12:24am Apr 2, 2016 12:24am
Tuesday
7:30
05/04/16
AU Interest HOT!
(AU Cash Rate), Australia, the AUDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 55.00 points in the first minute after the release.
22% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,371
  • Apr 3, 2016 6:05am Apr 3, 2016 6:05am
Hi vvFish
tnx for sharing your experience .
How do you use the time of opening london, new york , and others ?
is it important ?
  • #2,372
  • Apr 3, 2016 7:15am Apr 3, 2016 7:15am
also is it possible that cc4 indicator change ?
i have pic from the time when i trade and some hourse after that ?
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  • #2,373
  • Apr 3, 2016 7:46am Apr 3, 2016 7:46am
Quoting mohsen210007
also is it possible that cc4 indicator change ? i have pic from the time when i trade and some hourse after that ? {image} {image}
my friend I'm not a programmer, if you want to change something that refer to programmers.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,374
  • Apr 3, 2016 11:03am Apr 3, 2016 11:03am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} my friend I'm not a programmer, if you want to change something that refer to programmers.
thnx for respond
i did not mean that if u can change it , i meaned whats wrong with indicator . is it possible that some times cc4 does not work properly ?

also what is the second pink indicator that u use ?

tnx again
  • #2,375
  • Apr 4, 2016 4:39am Apr 4, 2016 4:39am
Vvfish, i noticed you're trading news with 100 lots for each deal also on pairs with scarce liquidity: what's your broker? I am asking because due to slippage issues with my broker i can't trade news on oceanic pairs (NZDUSD, AUDUSD) with more than 5 lots for each deal.
  • #2,376
  • Apr 4, 2016 5:44am Apr 4, 2016 5:44am
What are the most important news for this week ?
i mean tradable's .
  • #2,377
  • Apr 4, 2016 12:23pm Apr 4, 2016 12:23pm
Quoting nxk
Vvfish, i noticed you're trading news with 100 lots for each deal also on pairs with scarce liquidity: what's your broker? I am asking because due to slippage issues with my broker i can't trade news on oceanic pairs (NZDUSD, AUDUSD) with more than 5 lots for each deal.
I do not slip because I go to the market a market order.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,378
  • Apr 4, 2016 12:24pm Apr 4, 2016 12:24pm
Quoting mohsen210007
What are the most important news for this week ? i mean tradable's .
See above, there is the announcement on Tuesday.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,379
  • Apr 4, 2016 2:36pm Apr 4, 2016 2:36pm
i read the first thread that Vigovski started , i understood that CC4 indicator can show the power of pairs before the news release .
But as i see in Your post vvFish you trade almost every news ,

How would you do that ?
What is you enterance signal , is it always by looking the CC4 indicator ?

and if you can tell me How do you exit the Trade ? what is the signal for the exit of a trade ?


tnx alot my friend , you are the best
  • #2,380
  • Edited Apr 5, 2016 2:09am Apr 4, 2016 11:46pm | Edited Apr 5, 2016 2:09am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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