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  • #139,701
  • Mar 29, 2016 9:53am Mar 29, 2016 9:53am
is the "scary" changing moment coming now, or market is waiting for something else (meeting/M+Q close/...)? what you guys expect if anything?
  • #139,702
  • Mar 29, 2016 11:08am Mar 29, 2016 11:08am
Quoting Grinsakh
is the "scary" changing moment coming now, or market is waiting for something else (meeting/M+Q close/...)? what you guys expect if anything?
I bet it's going to be a non event. Good luck.
  • #139,703
  • Mar 29, 2016 11:51am Mar 29, 2016 11:51am
SISSE!

What is going on?

US printing win after win after win, yet FOMC is running scared?
  • #139,704
  • Mar 29, 2016 2:07pm Mar 29, 2016 2:07pm
My theory is that june will bring a better opportunity to raise rates. This gives brexit a chance to clear and other world economic forces to settle. Until then it would seem that a test of the current highs and maybe extension to 1.15 is in play. I am just an amateur expressing what may be a less than well educated thought. Have a great day to all!
  • #139,705
  • Mar 30, 2016 1:50am Mar 30, 2016 1:50am
Quoting The Fool
I am (still) looking for a hard bull run in April for US equities.
oh, mos def, get the stars to align on the oil, China, and NFP data points & we can see spoos back above 2,100 THIS WEEK! ^VIX to new atl's IN APRIL! SOME TRADERS are gonna be VERY much RICHER! OMG!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,706
  • Mar 30, 2016 3:53am Mar 30, 2016 3:53am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} oh, mos def, get the stars to align on the oil, China, and NFP data points & we can see spoos back above 2,100 THIS WEEK! ^VIX to new atl's IN APRIL! SOME TRADERS are gonna be VERY much RICHER! OMG!
Indeed.

Quoting sisse
Extremely bullish close in Equities worldwide with a very hawkish after taste from the FED and the super positive numbers form the US that keep coming non stop.

S&P closing in imminent break up!!! [check]for the extension 2040 -> 2080 in the upcoming weeks and with Gold losing foot short term to complete the leg 1190.xx.
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed double whammy (ECB/FED combo) for the bastards ...they are going for the clean sweep...hard to see who is going to step in the other side short term. .Check the Vix [check]is entering in comatose mode...
​
No surprises across the board since the double whammy. Equities in a rampage manic move fuelled from all fronts. To put the cherry on top, yesterday Yellen playing ball with the bastards waking up the board from the Holidays.

As widely expected Euro back at key decision levels for the Q close. Soft stops sitting naked at the current highs and offers will be raised @ the 1.13xx handle with Euro losing the highs unlocking a sharp test on air to the highs of the 1.14xx handle for to allow NFP to officially start spring trading mode.

Here, still flat in the FX board but actively looking for positions in Sterling, Yen and Euro. On the rest of the board, same levels, same plays, same all....

GL all next Quarter...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,707
  • Mar 30, 2016 4:14am Mar 30, 2016 4:14am
with all due respect what you are ignoring here is USDJPY correlation with SPX. USDJPY in strong downtrend. Yes equities did in fact push higher in thin volume, however this is not going to end well. Also April seasonality does in fact favor equities and risk assets, however not so during election years. Check out stock traders almanac, got some useful stuff in there. Finally, here's the EW outlook on SPX daily chart. Downside favored from now on. Unless we have a clear break above 2115 on SPX we go down big time.
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  • #139,708
  • Mar 31, 2016 7:00am Mar 31, 2016 7:00am
Equities in a hurry as there is no tomorrow but the plethora of mixed bag reports in the european session put a hard stop on the rally. European Equities starting to cough at the current highs. However, heavy bearish hands looks ready to capitulate for the spring and DAX taking 10000 this week will be enough to unlock an extension that will add even more fuel to the already manic move in global equities.

All eyes on China first tomorrow as a double positive combo with NFP could unlock the moon in equities. For today also, eyes on the Euro for the Q/M/NFP triple combo. We are set to lose key 1.097x on the Quarterly unlocking 1.15xx and marginally the extension to 1.172x before entering in what it seems could be a 'summer of hell for Europe' ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,709
  • Mar 31, 2016 9:28am Mar 31, 2016 9:28am
Quoting sisse
All eyes on China first tomorrow as a double positive combo with NFP could unlock the moon in equities. .... sisse
...stars are aligning....plus that comet crashing into Jupiter was some kind of sign, too.....China data is key....April/May last best chance for a juicy bull run in equities until after the US elections, if then
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,710
  • Mar 31, 2016 9:58am Mar 31, 2016 9:58am
Quoting sisse
...
For today also, eyes on the Euro for the Q/M/NFP triple combo. We are set to lose key 1.097x on the Quarterly unlocking 1.15xx and marginally the extension to 1.172x before entering in what it seems could be a 'summer of hell for Europe' .... sisse

Hi Sisse,

What do you mean 'summer of hell for Europe' .... ?
  • #139,711
  • Mar 31, 2016 10:28am Mar 31, 2016 10:28am
Europe going home with the first round of Quarterly closes for this week. Important updates coming both from the TA and FA side.

The most important one is from the FA side. Risk is officially off the table till the summer/brexit/EU collapse/US election jitters with a populist on the front seat on the polls.

A double round China/NFP will confirm it but we are set to continue the tone. Bears are capitulating in the European equities markets and a break of DAX 10000 will scare even the most pessimistic seller until June...meaning nobody will seat on the offer against an avalanche worldwide with CB on board and in a hurry to kill the year before RISK take over the remain of the year....

Only a major flop tomorrow will change the outcome until then 1st update for the end of the Quarter:

-> Changing mid term outlook in European equities from neutral to Soft Buy

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,712
  • Mar 31, 2016 10:38am Mar 31, 2016 10:38am
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with the first round of Quarterly closes for this week. Important updates coming both from the TA and FA side. The most important one is from the FA side. Risk is officially off the table till the summer/brexit/EU collapse/US election jitters with a populist on the front seat on the polls. A double round China/NFP will confirm it but we are set to continue the tone. Bears are capitulating in the European equities markets and a break of DAX 10000 will scare even the most pessimistic seller until June...meaning nobody will seat on...
do u have any ideas on cable? im expecting 1.45/1.4550 region as a top of range, before cable starts chopping
  • #139,713
  • Mar 31, 2016 10:59am Mar 31, 2016 10:59am
Quoting monkey@forex
{quote} do u have any ideas on cable? im expecting 1.45/1.4550 region as a top of range, before cable starts chopping
The mid and long term outlook in Sterling is dramatic to say the least. 1.304x is already unlocked since last year confirmed when the day of the Referendum for Brexit was announced. Brexit will unlock 1986 lows (1.05xx) to max extension overshoot +/- parity.

Sterling has been losing it shine for a few years already. The slow decline became a full blown sell off with the UK flirting to leave Europe and isolate itself marking the official historical end the 'Empire' in between.

The main issue right now is that everybody is on that train. The closer we get to the referendum and the closer the polls are for leaving the stronger the weight in cable will be, but the more difficult it will become to jump on board.

Shorter term, the GU outlook update needs to come with the US session close as the DOLLAR side will be the one that allow to jump in or out (Sterling alone is just blind and strong sell until Brexit and BOE later). 1.427x is the level to track for the Q/M/NFP combo...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,714
  • Mar 31, 2016 11:01am Mar 31, 2016 11:01am
sisse,

Is this info correct? True or False on RISK ON or OFF information below as I am trying to see why if RISK is "OFF" then why EU or perhaps GU would go HIGHER until JUNE and EQUITIES.

INFO on RISK:

When you see the stock market increase significantly, that is an indication that risk is “on”. A risk “on” environment is a mood of the market where investors feel good about the future prospects of the economy. Therefore, they take their capital and speculate in the stock market and high yielding instruments. This generally increases the value of the stock market and high yielding currencies.

This selling of a low yielding currency while simultaneously buying a high yielding currency is called the Carry Trade. So an effect of a risk “on” sentiment is an increase in the stock market and demand for high yielding currencies. As a result the Carry Trade strategy tends to perform well.

The EU is a carry trade currency correct? If so, RISK OFF should be promote SELLING in the EU and GU unless I am not understanding correctly.

Thanks as it appears, I am in hibernate mode for awhile unless this info is correct and I didn't understand your posts. I recall you telling me if we make a HIGHER High for Quarter end that we could go as HIGH as 1.17xx; but, does that mean we will RANGE from 1,17xx to 1.128X until the summer?
  • #139,715
  • Mar 31, 2016 11:08am Mar 31, 2016 11:08am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Is this info correct? True or False on RISK ON or OFF information below as I am trying to see why if RISK is "OFF" then why EU or perhaps GU would go HIGHER until JUNE and EQUITIES. INFO on RISK: When you see the stock market increase significantly, that is an indication that risk is on. A risk on environment is a mood of the market where investors feel good about the future prospects of the economy.
Yes but don't make the mistake to think that markets only move because of RISK. When risk is the variable in play you can play the on and off card but most of the time risk is not the variable in play ...


Quote
... I recall you telling me if we make a HIGHER High for Quarter end that we could go as HIGH as 1.17xx; but, does that mean we will RANGE from 1,17xx to 1.128X until the summer?

Yes. Outlook updates on the close. Euro side is settle but Dollar side to confirm the FX board ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,716
  • Edited 11:44am Mar 31, 2016 11:33am | Edited 11:44am
Quote
Yes but don't make the mistake to think that markets only move because of RISK. When risk is the variable in play you can play the on and off card but most of the time risk is not the variable in play ...

Thanks sisse. I think at one time when RISK was OFF it was due to OIL uncertainty and MEDIUM/MODERATE RISK OFF went to GOLD and EU (carry trade).

Now, we have RMT (rate momentum trade) OFF for DOLLAR at the moment affecting this trading environment. I still am confused with this as US DOLLAR is stronger than EU despite the carry trade in my books. DOLLAR has more momentum to move FORWARD or hold VALUE than EU even if RATE INCREASE limited. How is 0% better than .50%? Yet, EU is still stronger due to 0% interest. I understand it encourages the consumer to want to take out more loans in EU (free money)and can stimulate the economy; yet, to me, interest is kind of built into the EU now at this level or price. And, I realize with the CHINA issues in play with the YEN makes is more attractive until the YEN unwinds fully as gator spoke about. But, logically (with my limited amount and makes me ignorant of what you know) it seems DOLLAR would be stronger against the EU and GU even now.

There is too much RISK for this currency and GU against the DOLLAR IMO. US economy is stablizing and GU and EU are not while both economies are looking at some big hurdles MID TERM and LONG TERM.
  • #139,717
  • Mar 31, 2016 11:52am Mar 31, 2016 11:52am
Quoting sisse
The main issue right now is that everybody is on that train. The closer we get to the referendum and the closer the polls are for leaving the stronger the weight in cable will be, but the more difficult it will become to jump on board
there will be good money to be made on either side - a binary event - if the Brexit ref fails, FTSE and sterling will rally, and vice versa, of course.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,718
  • Mar 31, 2016 2:24pm Mar 31, 2016 2:24pm
Second round of updates in outlook:

--> Re-confirming mid term outlook in GOLD from Neutral to STRONG NEUTRAL

but more interesting:

--> changing mid term outlook in OIL from SELL to NEUTRAL

... and a good round of numbers overnight from China will trigger a change in short term outlook from Buy to STRONG BUY.

US Equities and Currencies updates coming in a few....

sisse
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} Thanks sisse. I think at one time when RISK was OFF it was due to OIL uncertainty and MEDIUM/MODERATE RISK OFF ...
Lets go step by step one more time. You are putting the hours ...so you will crack it sooner rather than later:

Generalizing 3 Main Movers from a FX perspective:

  1. Via monetary policy (interest rates, rate differentials, QE, bands, etc)
  2. Via Macroecnomic Factors (Growth, good numbers, GDP, inflation, etc)
  3. Via Risk

We are playing number 2 for the spring (which is usually the norm most of the 'normal' time) ....hope it helps...

Quoting The Fool
{quote} there will be good money to be made on either side - a binary event - if the Brexit ref fails, FTSE and sterling will rally, and vice versa, of course.
Definitively !!!! ... I don't know what it looks better to trade. Brexit is guarantee major panic leg short term but a long, painful and slow leg down later for the mid term. No Brexit guarantee major flop and it will trigger a massive relief rally short term but a slow painful chop for the mid term ...

Whatever the case both sides look extremely interesting for this year ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,719
  • Mar 31, 2016 2:53pm Mar 31, 2016 2:53pm
Final round of updates...

--> Confirming US equities short and mid term outlook on BUY (NFP before revaluation short term).

More interesting in the FX board:

--> Changing mid term outlook in YEN (UJ) from Neutral to SELL and short term outlook from Sell to strong Sell

--> Reconfirming mid term outlook in Sterling (GU) from Sell to Strong Sell while keeping short term outlook in very feeble Neutral

and finally and very importantly

--> Changing mid term outlook in Euro from August 2015 from Strong sell to Neutral

Maps also cleared for the first short term swing of the spring and the NFP play tomorrow but those details for later....

Got what I wanted. Plenty of data to digest both from the FA and TA side. We are ready to roll for the spring ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,720
  • Edited 3:21pm Mar 31, 2016 2:54pm | Edited 3:21pm
sisse,

You may think Ill crack it sooner than later...but, this is one MAP I think will be later than sooner for me .....I am on the wrong side again of GU and EU.

My TIMING was off. I positioned early from last months NFP and it swung against me on GU and EU. Everything on my MAP looked clear and the levels were there. Didn't see the Whipsaw and reverse though you did. My STOPS were "adjusted" due to the fact I leveraged appropriate to deal with this move against me. However, as you said, my stops were not reasonable. I have the leverage but perhaps, not enough if EU runs to 1.17 and GU to 1.50. But, this is a lesson here to learn how IMPT TIMING is to my trading.

But, enough about my ignorant positions on the currencies; I would like to understand why #1 is not still on the table if #2 proves good US data and not good EU and GU data. What I mean is that wouldn't #1 be considered with #2 during the SPRING to bring EU and GU lower rather than HIGHER? I realize no rate increases for SPRING but still possible for JUNE IMO. GU data for deficit today was horrible and is growing worse at a rapid rate; yet, GU continues to be stronger against the DOLLAR? OIL stablizes, CHINA good numbers yet YEN a Sell?

Good numbers in CHINA last night mean CHINA EQUITIES rally and YEN suffers? And, EU and GU stronger with mixed correlations with EQUITIES at times. Doesn't add up. But, that's because I am ignorant compared to someone as yourself and I only understand a little.

"Generalizing 3 Main Movers from a FX perspective:"

 

  1. Via monetary policy (interest rates, rate differentials, QE, bands, etc)
  2. Via Macroecnomic Factors (Growth, good numbers, GDP, inflation, etc)
  3. Via Risk


#1 in my opinion is still on the table if good numbers follow. I am not one who thinks JUNE is off the table despite what YELLEN states in her DOVISH tone. Aside from that, I don't understand why US has to raise rates and EU and GU doesn't; yet, they get stronger despite even bad numbers. EU and GU have QE plus going on and US does not.

US has had good numbers all along and consecutive; yet, that has not proven good for the DOLLAR. If MACRO FACTORS are good for US and bad in EU and GU, how does DOLLAR get stronger? It hasn't so far. I am frustrated I don't know enough to ask intelligent questions as I am sure all that I am asking is obvious to most here.

I am seeing that the MID TERM LEG is stubborn to get started in all of this.....and, I am learning why patience is more valuable than any currency!

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