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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,681
  • Edited 2:37pm Mar 18, 2016 9:43am | Edited 2:37pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} why not? ... -> When and how would you know that the current breach to the 1.13xx handle is a wick or it is going to be extended? sisse
I answered this week and wasn't sure if my answer was correct........

I responded with "wait until the WEEKLY or MONTHLY close." Weekly could close BULLISH though and not be a wick but the MONTHLY could close as wick at this this level. Thanks

Here is what I am looking at with the RMT:
in OCT 2015 the HIGH was 1493 with Rate increase in Question
in FEB 2016 with 1 rate increase and 2nd in Question along with RISK OFF the HIGH was 1377
in MARCH 2016 with 1 of the rate increases out (for now) in 2016 but 2 rate increases still factored in and ECB cutting again and QE+ the HIGH so far is 1344

The fact we haven't taken out 1377 when we were so close (1344) with all the ECB/FED out and digested makes me ponder if the MID TERM LEG has now begun............I would have thought we would have taken out the HIGHS today and did not!

Month is still not over but HIGHEST CLOSE since Feb 2015 was 1224. This could be a KEY. Breaking 1055 is the CONFIRMATION I am looking for 1050-->097X--0800 with fast EXT to -->.0518

This is my MAP and my DESIGN if the MID TERM LEG is in PLAY..................if not, I sit and wait......
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  • #139,682
  • Mar 18, 2016 10:16am Mar 18, 2016 10:16am
Hi guys , was a little bzy d whole week ... So after everyone's post can clearly see overall it was a good week ... What more plans for the upcoming week

For me E/u extension is still a valid option with a very good RMT mode(sisse style) consuming the Q2... Guys who didn't read my posts canget back to my last posts ... Hope I m right ...don't know what sisse chester imarich has to say ..
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,683
  • Mar 18, 2016 4:45pm Mar 18, 2016 4:45pm
...and euro barely held 1.128x but held at the end for the W roll.

Bearish close but we have key M/Q combo close coming from the TA side that will settle the deal once and for all next week.

Not much to do with remaining positions across the board, Euro stay neutral in the short term but we are officially inside of 'choose your poison time' for the mid term ride....

Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} I answered this week and wasn't sure if my answer was correct........ I responded with "wait until the WEEKLY or MONTHLY close." Weekly could close BULLISH though and not be a wick but the MONTHLY could close as wick at this this level. Thanks Here is what I am looking at with the RMT: in OCT 2015 the HIGH was 1493 with Rate increase in Question in FEB 2016 with 1 rate increase and 2nd in Question along with RISK OFF the HIGH was 1377 in MARCH 2016 with 1 of the rate increases out (for now) in 2016 but 2 rate increases still factored in...
Good post.

One important point.

--> FA expectations and facts are not static in time like charts (thats why is difficult to analyse back in static charts at FA moves). Although your OCT 2015, FEB 2016 MARCH 2016 we are currently 1 hike up (FED) and 2 rate cuts (ECB) as facts not expectations.

I am mentioning this because the rate differentials is so distorted now that Euro as become extremely attractive as carry currency to ride the short term pig in equities (bastards riding free money again via ECB QE).

--> Point being, expectations are even stronger that ever for a very very sharp down in the euro this year. However, the divergence in monetary policy between ECB and FED is so deep now that has bring 'unweigthed' consequences on the value of the pair and as long as equities are in manic mode riding free money Euro will stay strongly on bid....

So try to stay in synch with the market and not get caught with the pants down when and avalanche in equities and commodities is riding the wave short term on very strong fundamentals (rate cut /QE ECB and FED outlook with super strong numbers). Time to be super sharp and pay attention. Your levels look solid, your FA are getting better, your timing ? ...well you will get an answer with the Q/M combo

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,684
  • Mar 19, 2016 1:32pm Mar 19, 2016 1:32pm
sisse,

Thanks for the compliment. Really gives me some confidence despite my trades I have taken. Yes, my TIMING is horrible. I just hope I can fix it. I almost think if you could ask me periodically if I should take a trade now and see my answer that I might learn and understand far more. But, that requires your time and one commodity (if it was one )I have over extended with you.

Thanks for the insight on the FA side. It's tuff deciphering the EU. At one point it was Moderate Risk w Oil and China. Then, it was a carry trade issue as EU AND JPY are funding currencies and w 0% interest it's cheaper to get a loan w those currencies over USD OR others. EU is tuff to understand with all of this.

I am Prob wrong but would have thought with all I have observed since Oct 2015 w USD rate in question, Moderate Risk, Oil, carry trade, funding currency, US DATA continues to get better, ECB cuts and more QE+, US does raise rate and claims for at least 2 more that if price was going to 1.17 it would have already. I think the fact 1.14xx has been the highest high in all I listed and not reaching a HH on Friday falling short 30 measly pips that logic would tell me we are turning for the MID term Leg. However, my Timing and positioning suck. So, I would rather be in a wait and see mode then where I am at. I have 2 weeks to sweat it out since March has almost 2 more weeks in it unless you only count the full week next week.

Again, I can't say it enough. Thanks for your input in helping all of us here!!!! Much respect for you!!!
  • #139,685
  • Mar 21, 2016 9:13am Mar 21, 2016 9:13am
U/J showing intentions on another attack on the lows... and Gold for 1270's
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  • #139,686
  • Mar 21, 2016 4:04pm Mar 21, 2016 4:04pm
A super strong close in equities worldwide. We are going for the home run in US Equities and OIL for this Q.

On the rest of the board no point in holding remaining positions in the EURO. Clearing all on the roll from 1.096x ECB/FED leg and flat as pancake in currencies short term but actively looking for swing positions in both Euro and UJ for the Q close and the mid term swings ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,687
  • Mar 22, 2016 4:01am Mar 22, 2016 4:01am
Cowards killing civilians striking back ... soft risk off triggered across the board from Brusels on the european opening range.

Expecting a short-lived reaction until news settle down. Watch out for DAX lossing 9840 and Euro losing the handle 1.12.xx as there is lots of air below till (9600.x and 1.108x).

Tracking closely the next couple of hours before taking action....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,688
  • Mar 22, 2016 7:15am Mar 22, 2016 7:15am
Equities struggling to shake off risk off. Eyes on NY with Brexit, free movements, EU collapsing and all that back on the table via Brussels...

Markets aligning for a healthy profit taking before the Eastern break and news today seem to be a good trigger ... NY with the upperhand...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,689
  • Mar 22, 2016 7:42am Mar 22, 2016 7:42am
Watch out yen and sterling, both triggering early imminent break down alerts.!!!...and both are very very large and tradable mid term legs....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,690
  • Mar 22, 2016 1:41pm Mar 22, 2016 1:41pm
Quoting sisse
Watch out yen and sterling, both triggering early imminent break down alerts.!!!...and both are very very large and tradable mid term legs.... sisse
First..I have to apologize for my non native language (english)..
Second..I have a need to ''take a bowe'' to sisse for making my analysis more patience and thus more accurate, just from reading every single of his posts.
Third..I chose 'my poison time' on yen 24 hours ago (currently profitable) but I'm wondering what was your trigger for predicting ''early imminent break down'' for yen?
My analysis on yen is currently pure technical waiting to combine with fundamental also (besides a divergence FED/BOJ, I need more fundamental arguments to justify my current position in yen).

Thank you in advance!
  • #139,691
  • Mar 22, 2016 3:48pm Mar 22, 2016 3:48pm
US Equities barely managed to held but held at the end. Markets look tired, very tired in urgent need of the Spring/Eastern break and without much on the report side this week bar a random GDP print confirmation on Eastern Friday, we are set to close the week rather early.

Yen and Euro, managed to shake out the knee jerk reaction from the Brussels news but we are entering in very dull mode. Not much to see or do for the roll.
European equities will take the driver seat for the week so tracking closely the european opening tomorrow to measure how markets digest the real implications of the risk news for the rest of the spring (Brexit, EU collapse, etc).

Quoting zodiak
{quote}I'm wondering what was your trigger for predicting ''early imminent break down'' for yen?
Risk.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,692
  • Mar 22, 2016 4:33pm Mar 22, 2016 4:33pm
Quoting Likerty
U/J showing intentions on another attack on the lows... and Gold for 1270's
U/J 110.40's in view against todays highs...
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  • #139,693
  • Mar 23, 2016 8:26am Mar 23, 2016 8:26am
wow look at gold.... i may be wrong but is that from dollar finally taking over as the risk off currency.... is there less risk in the market than anticipated?
  • #139,694
  • Mar 23, 2016 8:32am Mar 23, 2016 8:32am
Eu in a full boring mode .... waiting for monthly/quarterly close ... don't see any reason to close below .114xx ... still holding the buy .... hope to get a good return from in the next Quarter or Q3....
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,695
  • Mar 23, 2016 9:39am Mar 23, 2016 9:39am
Look at those oil numbers... 9.4M (actual) 2.5M (expected) 1.3M(previous). Much more than expected! Should send the price down, right?
  • #139,696
  • Mar 23, 2016 4:23pm Mar 23, 2016 4:23pm
Quoting rioMario
{quote} --- here yellen killed my remaining gold shorts. On the forex, usdCad looks yummy at these levels: dollar sore wounded but not slain, and oil approaching intresting levels.
babbling fed officials way more hawkish than yellen and dollar clearly gains vs commodities and commodities currencies above all.

---
a quirk:

on the FOMC press transcription Yellen referring to a April hike as "a large possibility" (page 11)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/media...nf20160316.pdf

on the FOMC speech she clearly says "live possibilty" (minute 28:30)
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  • #139,697
  • Mar 23, 2016 9:56pm Mar 23, 2016 9:56pm
Quoting IMARICH1
"Yellen says the Fed could raise rates at its next meeting, in April, even though theres no scheduled press conference after that meeting. She says every meeting is live in the sense that a rate hike could be decided" However, I doubt this would be taken into consideration until they do it once. Inflation has ticked up every month since Oct 2015 but we are still under 2% target.
This is what I posted during the FOMC meeting. However, unless they do this one time, no one will respect that lip service.
  • #139,698
  • Mar 25, 2016 1:15pm Mar 25, 2016 1:15pm
Markets were pretty much on holiday since Wednesday but we have a very random report in the middle of nowhere pending. We are closing the week with a very high note with a lot better than expected US numbers. Extremely bullish close in Equities worldwide with a very hawkish after taste from the FED and the super positive numbers form the US that keep coming non stop.

S&P closing in imminent break up!!! for the extension 2040 -> 2080 in the upcoming weeks and with Gold losing foot short term to complete the leg 1190.xx.

On the currency board Sterling lost foot one more time GU lost 1.427x and the current lows (1.38xx) are naked for a test and below while Euro pretty much set the low and the high of this month already and completing the test 1.108x seems unavoidable on inertia play until the Q close.

Not much to do here flat across the currency board for the Eastern break and actively looking for positions in UJ, GU and Euro for the spring ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,699
  • Mar 25, 2016 2:00pm Mar 25, 2016 2:00pm
Quoting sisse
Markets were pretty much on holiday since Wednesday but we have a very random report in the middle of nowhere pending. We are closing the week with a very high note with a lot better than expected US numbers. Extremely bullish close in Equities worldwide with a very hawkish after taste from the FED and the super positive numbers form the US that keep coming non stop. S&P closing in imminent break up!!! for the extension 2040 -> 2080 in the upcoming weeks and with Gold losing foot short term to complete the leg 1190.xx. On the currency board Sterling...
to me...UJ still range bound between 114.5 to 110 on daily, but monthly saying sell to 1.05, so may be best to enter nearer 114, or wait for 110 to become new resistance or break with momentum.

E/U a bit more tricky, its above year open, but on monthly seems range bound btwn 1.15 and 1.05. considering no fed rate hike in march and ECB saying no further cuts, this should be closer to 1.15, but didnt get near it. So for me a break of 1.10 (200 day MA around there) and id be looking at 1.05.

G/U looks ready to be crushed, on monthly its close to 2008 levels, alot of space below 1.35. i see 1.4550s as resistance. Due to referendum i assume G/U will need to form a range, so 1.45 to 1.35 seems to be ideal, closer to referendum price will settle in middle of range and break on result. but bad feeling it will be brexit, unless FTSE tumbles and cable at 1.25 scares people enough to vote to stay in.
  • #139,700
  • Mar 25, 2016 2:06pm Mar 25, 2016 2:06pm
Quoting sisse
Extremely bullish close in Equities worldwide with a very hawkish after taste from the FED and the super positive numbers form the US that keep coming non stop. S&P closing in imminent break up!!! for the extension 2040 -> 2080 in the upcoming weeks .... sisse
yes they need to get that done before the world ends this Summer. Fed heads talking hawk in the last week have put a warning sign out for the bulls, as well. I am (still) looking for a hard bull run in April for US equities. Apr FOMC is not until the last week of the month - plenty of time to see SnP 2,100+. A deep volatility (^VIX) collapse sets the speculator up for nice bearish trades on a hard slide (sell May/go away) ahead of lots of potential June/July fireworks. Good Luck & Happy Easter, sisse!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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