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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #20,881
  • Mar 29, 2016 2:43pm Mar 29, 2016 2:43pm
Quoting Oneshot
{quote} On what basis do you see 10'000 if I make ask?
#20'876

...round number exclusively & was executed so often in the last days.
FXcube
  • #20,882
  • Mar 29, 2016 7:26pm Mar 29, 2016 7:26pm
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} #20'873 Long @ 9'936, +78 (x10 = 780)
Congrats , that is the price I was thinking about buying at after my short from around 9970 but I was thinking it could either rally back up or drop further there. Wish I made that trade as well and left them sitting till today. Oh well, next time..
  • #20,883
  • Mar 29, 2016 7:40pm Mar 29, 2016 7:40pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Congrats , that is the price I was thinking about buying at after my short from around 9970 but I was thinking it could either rally back up or drop further there. Wish I made that trade as well and left them sitting till today. Oh well, next time..
#120'883

Thank's stylinex. Your trades are also clever. I like your trading style.

the DAX market seems more indifferent in these days, IMO .
...monthly bar is forming to shape out its end & the last three weekly candles are extremely tighten, which could signalizes ...maybe a breakout.
Let's see.
FXcube
  • #20,884
  • Mar 29, 2016 7:50pm Mar 29, 2016 7:50pm
Interesting piece of analysis for anyone interested in WD Gann theory and his long term cycles on US equity markets.

Charts attached show the price movement for the Dow Jones across three important time frames.

Time frame 1 is the price action in 1956 - which is minus 60 years from the present.
Time frame 2 shows price action in 1986 - which is minus 30 years from the present.
Time frame 3 shows price action in 1996 - which is minus 20 years from the present.

Gann used the 20 year, 30 year and 60 year cycles as his most important long term cycles.

Notice how each of those years the markets effectively traded in a sideways pattern for most of the year. Interesting, in each of those years, the markets made a significant bottom around the middle of January - which is repeating this year with the significant low in US equities on 21 Jan.

Looks like we are on the cards for a sideways chop for the first half of this year, which should present some beautiful range trading opportunities on the daily charts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gann - DJI 1956.PNG Size: 233 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Gann - DJI 1986.PNG Size: 235 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Gann - DJI 1996.PNG Size: 260 KB
  • #20,885
  • Mar 29, 2016 11:48pm Mar 29, 2016 11:48pm
DAXXIE still respecting the 50.0% Fib level and has been oscillating between the 38.2% level for a number of days now. Am watching tonight's action with interest to see if we get any directional signals.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX - 30 Mar Fib levels.png Size: 178 KB
  • #20,886
  • Mar 30, 2016 1:03am Mar 30, 2016 1:03am
I am expecting gains today. In now.
  • #20,887
  • Mar 30, 2016 1:13am Mar 30, 2016 1:13am
Quoting stylinex
I am expecting gains today. In now.
Grandma Yellen was dovish last night, which was good for stocks, but not good for the Dax is the bullish EURUSD. I will wait for XO.
  • #20,888
  • Mar 30, 2016 1:23am Mar 30, 2016 1:23am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Grandma Yellen was dovish last night, which was good for stocks, but not good for the Dax is the bullish EURUSD. I will wait for XO.
I am hoping that they both climb from here. Tight stop loss order though. Hope it does not drop to trigger stop loss order then climb up after
  • #20,889
  • Mar 30, 2016 1:25am Mar 30, 2016 1:25am
Loads of layers of Resistance and Support, key ones in bold IMO.

Immediate Resistance:
10,187.50pts: Daily - 200 SMA
10,064.30pts: R3
10,057.80pts: Fib 50%
10,040.00pts: Weekly 20SMA
10,009.40pts: R2
10,000.00pts: BRN
9,941.30pts: 1H - 7 SMA
9,939.90pts: 1M - 200 SMA

Immediate Supports:
9,933.10pts: 1H - 200 SMA
9,919.60pts: Daily - 7 SMA
9,915.10pts: R1
9,911.40pts: 1H - 20 SMA
9,908.70pts: 5M - 200 SMA
9,906.30pts: 4H - 7 SMA
9,903.00pts: 4H - 20 SMA and BRN
9,888.80pts: Daily - 20 SMA
9,860.20pts: DPP

Then assuming a break of the trend channel, the further Supports:
9,800.00pts: BRN
9,765.90pts: S1
9,740.90pts: Fib 61.8%
9,711.00pts: S2
9,656.60pts: 4H - 200 SMA
  • #20,890
  • Mar 30, 2016 1:44am Mar 30, 2016 1:44am
Quoting PariCovek
Loads of layers of Resistance and Support, key ones in bold IMO. Immediate Resistance: 10,187.50pts: Daily - 200 SMA 10,064.30pts: R3 10,057.80pts: Fib 50% 10,040.00pts: Weekly 20SMA 10,009.40pts: R2 10,000.00pts: BRN 9,941.30pts: 1H - 7 SMA 9,939.90pts: 1M - 200 SMA Immediate Supports: 9,933.10pts: 1H - 200 SMA 9,919.60pts: Daily - 7 SMA 9,915.10pts: R1 9,911.40pts: 1H - 20 SMA 9,908.70pts: 5M - 200 SMA 9,906.30pts: 4H - 7 SMA 9,903.00pts: 4H - 20 SMA and BRN 9,888.80pts: Daily - 20 SMA 9,860.20pts: DPP Then assuming a break of the trend channel,...
Do you have any open positions now?
  • #20,891
  • Mar 30, 2016 1:57am Mar 30, 2016 1:57am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Do you have any open positions now?
Nope... Waiting for XO to see what happens. If EURUSD wasn't up so much over night, I'd be long here.

I am expecting a possible interim top today or tomorrow though on the Dax, if so, then that will give me the signal to short based on time series analysis.
  • #20,892
  • Mar 30, 2016 2:02am Mar 30, 2016 2:02am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Nope... Waiting for XO to see what happens. If EURUSD wasn't up so much over night, I'd be long here. I am expecting a possible interim top today or tomorrow though on the Dax, if so, then that will give me the signal to short based on time series analysis.
I am long .. I have an open position now at 9,974.88
  • #20,893
  • Mar 30, 2016 2:08am Mar 30, 2016 2:08am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Nope... Waiting for XO to see what happens. If EURUSD wasn't up so much over night, I'd be long here. I am expecting a possible interim top today or tomorrow though on the Dax, if so, then that will give me the signal to short based on time series analysis.
Bought quite a few at 9953pts on breakout, closed 5 of them for about +15 each in 1 min. Left one to run with TP set for 9993pts.
  • #20,894
  • Mar 30, 2016 2:22am Mar 30, 2016 2:22am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Bought quite a few at 9953pts on breakout, closed 5 of them for about +15 each in 1 min. Left one to run with TP set for 9993pts.
TP hit.
+15 x 5, +40 x 1 = 265pts


Might sit out now, and hopefully we a get a new interim high today or tomorrow. Then I may do a swing/intra-week short trade.
  • #20,895
  • Mar 30, 2016 2:23am Mar 30, 2016 2:23am
Just closed. Happy for today
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpeg Size: 183 KB
  • #20,896
  • Mar 30, 2016 2:25am Mar 30, 2016 2:25am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} TP hit. +15 x 5, +40 x 1 = 265pts Might sit out now, and hopefully we a get a new interim high today or tomorrow. Then I may do a swing/intra-week short trade.
Good for you I sold a bit too early. Should have left sel price at 10,030. I got out at 10,021 23 &24
  • #20,897
  • Mar 30, 2016 2:40am Mar 30, 2016 2:40am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Good for you I sold a bit too early. Should have left sel price at 10,030. I got out at 10,021 23 &24
Nice trading yourself. Well done mate.

I re-entered at 10,003pts, sold 3 mini's for +10, then sold the last one for +20. I think the Weekly 20sma is the major resistance level, which is around 10,040pts. We may breach it temporarily today with some burst buying...
  • #20,898
  • Mar 30, 2016 2:41am Mar 30, 2016 2:41am
quote=PariCovek;8842310]{quote} Nice trading yourself. Well done mate. I re-entered at 10,003pts, sold 3 mini's for +10, then sold the last one for +20. I think the Weekly 20sma is the major resistance level, which is around 10,040pts. We may breach it temporarily today with some burst buying...[/quote]
At 10,060 now I sold way too early
  • #20,899
  • Mar 30, 2016 4:42am Mar 30, 2016 4:42am
is there a little bit more left in this rally? Can DAX move to 10100 today or tomorrow?

S&P500 looks like it is making a push to key price resistance at 2085.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SP500 - Repeating Price 280pts..PNG Size: 185 KB
  • #20,900
  • Mar 30, 2016 6:52am Mar 30, 2016 6:52am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} TP hit. +15 x 5, +40 x 1 = 265pts Might sit out now, and hopefully we a get a new interim high today or tomorrow. Then I may do a swing/intra-week short trade.
looks like you've made a good call re: going for an interim high today or tomorrow. only 50 points to go. Reversal signal tomorrow would be a good sign that the short trade is on.
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