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Trading Made Simple

  • #67,561
  • Mar 29, 2016 12:56pm Mar 29, 2016 12:56pm
GBPUSD Day chart trading.

Do not chase this pair now.
Be patient and let New York close, then review your Big Picture Plan.
If you can wait, let this Month' candle close. Then we plan for next month.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #67,562
  • Edited 1:21pm Mar 29, 2016 1:04pm | Edited 1:21pm
Yesterday, I took this trade. I hope it is not coincidence. (PS: Demo)

Edit: For today, GBPNZD short seems reasonable trade as I think.
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  • #67,563
  • Mar 29, 2016 2:16pm Mar 29, 2016 2:16pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} this pair has been sideways for many days. better follow the day bias and not trade against the Day candle
I followed your thoughts and decided it's not worth staying in the trade. There will be others
Live life king size !
  • #67,564
  • Mar 29, 2016 2:26pm Mar 29, 2016 2:26pm
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Hello Emm Good to read you again And what makes you so sure? It is like studying paste history of charts You hope that history will repeat itself and use indicators to show where the market should go. How many trades did you have lost because you have study past history saying this is what going to happen? I am trying to predict the market with TMS rules and by reading TMS the fog is lifting and still have my butt kicked TMS is good yesterday was a "WOW" day and something is still lacking Again you show the way to go quote "learn price action...
Tek, there was a time I would have said what you said. But with time and sage advice from gurus like Big E and Emm have taught me not to get ahead of the Price Action and make "predictions". Prediction is for the Oracle of Delphi. Let the PA be our guide. And act on what you see.
Sure you may miss out on a few pips but you will gain more than you lose. Also, past performance is not an indication of the future moves.
Live life king size !
  • #67,565
  • Mar 29, 2016 2:32pm Mar 29, 2016 2:32pm
UC, H4, short, second attempt was successful, after I closed manually the first one at BE when I saw PA stalling. +91 pips.
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EU, long, +108 pips.
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  • #67,566
  • Mar 29, 2016 3:26pm Mar 29, 2016 3:26pm
I have been tracking the thread for almost a year as well, and wanted to ask seasoned traders - do you also feel the strain when the trades run into your emotional reserves?
Having found my limit to be around 2-3 days, it's not a good fit for me to build positions over the weeks - I rather close them at the week' end and start over on next Tuesday - Wednesday when good waves are seen for the ride.
Those that can't, teach, and those that can, do.
Star Ribbean Return This Year: 0.1%
  • #67,567
  • Mar 29, 2016 3:39pm Mar 29, 2016 3:39pm
Quoting catalin_eros
UC, H4, short, second attempt was successful, after I closed manually the first one at BE when I saw PA stalling. +91 pips. {image} EU, long, +108 pips. {image}
do u enter the trade b4 the tdi even cross??
  • #67,568
  • Mar 29, 2016 3:42pm Mar 29, 2016 3:42pm
Quoting Acolyte
I have been tracking the thread for almost a year as well, and wanted to ask seasoned traders - do you also feel the strain when the trades run into your emotional reserves? Having found my limit to be around 2-3 days, it's not a good fit for me to build positions over the weeks - I rather close them at the week' end and start over on next Tuesday - Wednesday when good waves are seen for the ride.
that's a good strategy.. usually monday market very slow.. it put our mind at stress haha
  • #67,569
  • Mar 29, 2016 3:43pm Mar 29, 2016 3:43pm
Quoting foxtrader16
{quote} Tek, there was a time I would have said what you said. But with time and sage advice from gurus like Big E and Emm have taught me not to get ahead of the Price Action and make "predictions". Prediction is for the Oracle of Delphi. Let the PA be our guide. And act on what you see. Sure you may miss out on a few pips but you will gain more than you lose. Also, past performance is not an indication of the future moves.
yes but those prediction can be very tempting sometime.. i often make bad judgedment because of it
  • #67,570
  • Mar 29, 2016 4:00pm Mar 29, 2016 4:00pm
Quoting SlamberGamer
{quote} do u enter the trade b4 the tdi even cross??
Hello, SG!

Sometimes I do, because of my aggressive nature. But it was not the case of my UC trades. I think my red line may have been misleading. The red line doesn't mark any entries. It has a different purpose. Look at my green lines that I have just drawn, so that you can clearly see that the close of the candle was after the cross in both trades. And the same with the blue line in EU trade (it has a different purpose).

I hope that helps. Many green pips to you!
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  • #67,571
  • Mar 29, 2016 4:22pm Mar 29, 2016 4:22pm
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} Hello, SG! Sometimes I do, because of my aggressive nature. But it was not the case of my UC trades. I think my red line may have been misleading. The red line doesn't mark any entries. It has a different purpose. Look at my green lines that I have just drawn, so that you can clearly see that the close of the candle was after the cross in both trades. And the same with the blue line in EU trade (it has a different purpose). I hope that helps. Many green pips to you! {image}
hello, i see,, just curios... many pips to u too
  • #67,572
  • Mar 29, 2016 4:23pm Mar 29, 2016 4:23pm
Quoting foxtrader16
{quote} I followed your thoughts and decided it's not worth staying in the trade. There will be others
BE trade, Emmanuel was right
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  • #67,573
  • Mar 29, 2016 4:42pm Mar 29, 2016 4:42pm
My EG plan is telling me to buy. The setup seems to be forming, but I think it will be confirmed during Asian. Too bad I'll be sleeping like a baby!

If this H4 bar closes above the 5 ema, we have HD, 5 bars reversal pattern, TL break.
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  • #67,574
  • Mar 29, 2016 4:59pm Mar 29, 2016 4:59pm
Quoting Acolyte
I have been tracking the thread for almost a year as well, and wanted to ask seasoned traders - do you also feel the strain when the trades run into your emotional reserves? Having found my limit to be around 2-3 days, it's not a good fit for me to build positions over the weeks - I rather close them at the week' end and start over on next Tuesday - Wednesday when good waves are seen for the ride.
Aco, this is a perfect example of what really was a stumbling block for me when I first started, especially when you read things like "..you will be starting at 65% then eventually you will be at 80%.." in reference to win rate, It really took me too long to figure out that you do not need to have a positive win-rate to generate awesome returns, but mentally it can be hard at first to say the least.

I think what put it into perspective for me personally is that if you cap your maximum loss at 1% of your trading capital and target 2-5R as I mentioned in my previous post, even if you had say only three trades per week and had 2 losers of 1% each so say -2% and 1 winner of 3-4r or 3-4% your still walking away with 1-2% per week!!

If you can save up to a $10,000 account, you can make $100-200 a week for about 5 minutes of work (assuming 4 hour charts here) compound that and you can really have a investment vehicle that is giving you lots of extra side money or you can eventually grow it to a sizeable second income etc.

Undoubtedly there will be some that will say "wow only 1-2% a week I double my account every Sunday blah blah you suck" that is noise.. you need to control risk, once you have that demon under control the upside will take care of itself!!


Just for fun, pull up an 1hr chart of gbp.usd or gbp.cad and look back at March and you will see awesome entries and exits just based on stochastic or TDI from the o/b o/s areas using 1% risk at the swing low and high and then letting it run (just because a candle turns red or green doesn't mean you have to exit either)

So your drawdowns will be a lot less painful and your winners will take care of themselves, the guys that want to risk 5% a trade and claim astronomical returns can do so at their peril, with these leveraged products they are playing right into the market makers hands and will have a hard time emotionally with the drawdowns.

*EDIT*
For fun, I am going to post my trades this week, the actual entry and exit on MT4 you'll actually see what I am talking about and likely will be a lot of little losses and hopefully 1-2 nice 3-4r that make me a nice profit despite a lower win rate.
  • #67,575
  • Edited 7:09pm Mar 29, 2016 5:29pm | Edited 7:09pm
Quoting Andyvix833
I think what put it into perspective for me personally is that if you cap your maximum loss at 1% of your trading capital and target 2-5R as I mentioned in my previous post, even if you had say only three trades per week and had 2 losers of 1% each so say -2% and 1 winner of 3-4r or 3-4% your still walking away with 1-2% per week!! *EDIT* For fun, I am going to post my trades this week, the actual entry and exit on MT4 you'll actually see what I am talking about and likely will be a lot of little losses and hopefully 1-2 nice 3-4r that make me a nice profit despite a lower win rate.
Hi Andy,
Thank you for sharing your wisdom and I'm so looking forward to your posting of your trade examples!
  • #67,576
  • Mar 29, 2016 5:43pm Mar 29, 2016 5:43pm
Quoting Andyvix833
{quote} Aco, this is a perfect example of what really was a stumbling block for me when I first started, especially when you read things like "..you will be starting at 65% then eventually you will be at 80%.." in reference to win rate, It really took me too long to figure out that you do not need to have a positive win-rate to generate awesome returns, but mentally it can be hard at first to say the least. I think what put it into perspective for me personally is that if you cap your maximum loss at 1% of your trading capital and target 2-5R

AndyVix,

I agree with you completely . . . win-rate and pips are all relative. R:R is the most meaningful stat in my personal analysis. Last week i did not trade due to the holidays, but the previous week i had 8 trades, 3 initial stop loss hit, 3 breakevens, 2 TP. All my losses are and will always be -1R and based on a percent of equity, therefore i had -3R. BE i always cover my trading costs, and therefore are 0R, and my TP differ from setup to setup but i will rarely consider closing a trade for less then 4/5R. Both my wins were about 4.4R for a total of 8.8R. Minus the loses my week was about 5.8R. Not bad if my initial R is based on 1% of equity, but what about 1.5% or the famous 2%.

Obviously the higher the R you are chasing, the lower the probability you will achieve it. A famous trading adage is: "never let a winner turn into a loser". I agree with this philosophy, but personally, i treat BE trades as winners. I protect my trades when prices reaches 1R in the positive be moving to BE+costs, and then i let the market do the heavy lifting.

Personally, as a trader, i see my job as simply identifying the setups that have greater probability from me to move to BE . . . after that, its all in the markets hands.

One thing i know for sure based on my trading log is that if all my TP were based on 1R (1:1) or even 1.5R (1:1.5), i would not be a profitable trader.


Best,
N


Image was posted by member ERL, explains the win-rate to R concept pretty well.
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  • #67,577
  • Mar 29, 2016 6:08pm Mar 29, 2016 6:08pm
Hi Folks,

very good ongoing sharing and discussions on your experiences.
please be active and share what your experiences were and help one another to progress.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #67,578
  • Mar 29, 2016 6:16pm Mar 29, 2016 6:16pm
GBPUSD Week 13 update March 30.

Its near month end and tomorrow we shall see the March MN candle close.

A quick update after yesterday' breakout move. I will be closing some trades today and complete my 20-trading days cycle.

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Yesterday D1 candle is a Wide Range Bar WRB. Unless today trading move higher that the WRB high, we may see and Inside Bar later.
H4 TDI is way above its OverBought OB region and H4 tradesrs will be looking to sell. This can cause a pull back down to 1.4300 and buyers will also move to protect their open positions.

Technically, I see possible move higher to 1.4700 but it will not be one single line move up. It will be choppy and we know how to trade in such choppy conditions with ME/ME.
Next week will be interesting to start a new month in Position Trading.

Trade Well and Trade Safe.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #67,579
  • Mar 29, 2016 6:21pm Mar 29, 2016 6:21pm
Quoting SlamberGamer
{quote} do u enter the trade b4 the tdi even cross??

the price action seen using the price bar or candlesticks is more important than the TDI Green cross Red.
Big E trade more with PA and the angle of the TDI Green. He did not look at what the Red is doing so lone as the PA is good plus the TDI Green angle is 12-2 or 4-6.
He knows from his 6,000 hours experience how to pick only the best setups.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #67,580
  • Mar 29, 2016 6:33pm Mar 29, 2016 6:33pm
Quoting Valentinik87
{quote} BE trade, Emmanuel was right {image}

The market is always right. But I am only 40% right... 40% I am wrong, another 20% I manage BE.

AUDJPY Week 13 update .

I remain on the buyers' side until I see a bearish reversal either on Weekly or Daily.

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But the question is how to deal with all those H4 sell setups such as the one yesterday? These are what I call the "market set you up".
Once I decide to be buyer, I look at retracements and look for TDI cross up in M15 or H1 to add trades build Position.

Trade Well and Trade Safe.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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