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  • #1,062,761
  • Mar 28, 2016 7:06pm Mar 28, 2016 7:06pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} and agree many faces gone, mine to except for left eyebrow and little toenail {image}
What happened to your eyebrow and little toenail?

I just had cataract surgery in left eye and can see double good now.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #1,062,762
  • Mar 28, 2016 7:43pm Mar 28, 2016 7:43pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} But you have to give it all you've got!!!! Use internet to your advance, have you heard about the website: "babypips.com"? Start there on there tab named: school, and spend 200 hours there. You're gonna love it. And it never stops, I have 11 years experience in this trading and even I go back to that website once in a while. Make sure you recognize patterns, define tops and bottoms and confirmation. Don't forget to pay close attention to S&R lines. Lol, I always have trouble with S&R, which of course is Support and Resistance. But I had...
Thanks for your website. I have had 3 years experience of trading forex, but I still don't study it systematically. It's a good place to start and advance. Thanks again.
  • #1,062,763
  • Mar 28, 2016 7:58pm Mar 28, 2016 7:58pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} What happened to your eyebrow and little toenail? I just had cataract surgery in left eye and can see double good now.
nothing, it is just a mis-understanding
I was meaning i am not here often either only when something interesting is preparing, and mainly watching
4hr and above time frames, most here are watching smaller time frames so analysis is rarely matching or relevant, pips are easy today with time they could grow
good to see operation went well tho, know of some horror strories
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #1,062,764
  • Mar 28, 2016 8:21pm Mar 28, 2016 8:21pm
EUR-USD PERSONALITY

I was reading the quotes on this thread and some traders were saying that EUR-USD pair doesn't trend much. So I went back to a book that I had read some time back and was able to look at the characteristics of EUR-USD pair.


If you are interested then read pages 142- 149 of the book Currency Trading for Dummies 2nd edition by Brain Dolan. These pages cover:
1) Trading fundamentals of EUR-USD,
2) Trading behavior of EUR-USD, and
3) Technical trading considerations in EUR-USD.
  • #1,062,765
  • Mar 28, 2016 9:13pm Mar 28, 2016 9:13pm
Quoting candlesticks
EUR-USD PERSONALITY I was reading the quotes on this thread and some traders were saying that EUR-USD pair doesn't trend much. So I went back to a book that I had read some time back and was able to look at the characteristics of EUR-USD pair. If you are interested then read pages 142- 149 of the book Currency Trading for Dummies 2nd edition by Brain Dolan. These pages cover: 1) Trading fundamentals of EUR-USD, 2) Trading behavior of EUR-USD, and 3) Technical trading considerations in EUR-USD.
A librarian? I appreciate this, I tried to read the whole thread, but it takes some time.
  • #1,062,766
  • Mar 28, 2016 10:08pm Mar 28, 2016 10:08pm
Yellen goin to move some dollar pips tomorrow.
She gets off by moving markets.
She desires it. She dreams of pips.

Expect her to weaken the dollar tomorrow.
She knows its the only survival for american dollar going forward. She wont say anything that makes dollar rally short term
  • #1,062,767
  • Mar 28, 2016 10:09pm Mar 28, 2016 10:09pm
Quoting mecherine
{quote} Lol......forex price don't respect fibonacci. I prefer when you say momentum is your friend.
forex does respect Fibonacci, but only in hindsight
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #1,062,768
  • Mar 28, 2016 10:32pm Mar 28, 2016 10:32pm
Quoting mecherine
{quote} Lol......forex price don't respect fibonacci. I prefer when you say momentum is your friend.
euro first target around 1.14, second target 1.1460, by fibonacci.
I ignore fools
  • #1,062,769
  • Mar 28, 2016 11:01pm Mar 28, 2016 11:01pm
Quoting Rosey76
{quote} euro first target around 1.14, second target 1.1460, by fibonacci.
Fibonacci is useful to help find a target point for where other traders belief's might fluctuate. They can be more useful when fib levels match up with existing long term support/resistance points.

Fibonacci levels, while often intriguing in retrospect, are very rarely helpful for identification of high probability entry points. If you are solely trading off fib levels, I advise you to stop. Close your account and keep what you have before you lose it all.
  • #1,062,770
  • Mar 28, 2016 11:02pm Mar 28, 2016 11:02pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} forex does respect Fibonacci, but only in hindsight
Well said.
  • #1,062,771
  • Mar 28, 2016 11:13pm Mar 28, 2016 11:13pm
so many newbies pretending they know much about fobinacci levels or ratios.
I ignore fools
  • #1,062,772
  • Mar 28, 2016 11:34pm Mar 28, 2016 11:34pm
Quoting Rosey76
so many newbies pretending they know much about fobinacci levels or ratios.
fibonacci is too complicated for me.
i just don't know what is the swing high/low to use.
“Hope is [a] bogus emotion that only costs you money.” - PETER LYNCH
  • #1,062,773
  • Edited Mar 29, 2016 12:15am Mar 28, 2016 11:44pm | Edited Mar 29, 2016 12:15am
Quoting Rosey76
{quote} when i get time i will show you guys how to calculate optimal position size for each trade.
Now let us derive what is the optimal position size for each trade.
suppose a system has a winning:losing ratio r, and the profit/risk factor is R=P/L.
the basic gain compounding factor is
F=(1+P)^r x (1-L).
clearly F=1 when P=L=0 (no gain no loss).
F is an inverse parabolic function of P or L (P/L=R=constant). F increases from 1 when P and L increase from 0, and reaches a maximum and then decreases with further increases of P and L, and finally reaches zero.
Rewrite F as
F=(1+P)^r (1-P/R)
The maximum of F appears at dF/dP=0
===> P(1+r)=r*R-1
so P = (r*R-1)/(1+r)
L = (r*R-1)/(1+r)/R
it is clear that we need r*R>1. i.e., the product of win/loss ratio and profit/risk factor needs to be bigger than 1.
Examples:
(1),
suppose profit/risk factor is R=P/L = 1.5, and its winning ratio is r=0.7 (7 wins; 10 losses)
the optimal profit is P = 0.029 = 2.9% and the risk (loss) is L= 1.93%.
(2), same R=P/L=1.5, but r = 0.8 (8 wins and 10 losses).
the optimal P = 11%, and risk L = 7.3%.

(3) for R=P/L=2.0 and its r=0.55 (11 wins and 20 losses)
the optimal P = 6.45% and the risk L = 3.23%.
(4) same R=2.0 but its r = 0.6 (6 wins and 10 losses)
the optimal P = 12.5% and risk L = 6.25%.

From the above examples, we can see that we need to chose a position size that give the optimal profit and at the same time it would also risk the derived percentage for that position size. For all the examples, the risk is more than 1%.

Next time when I hear someone says risk only 1% per trade, that person is talking shit.
I ignore fools
  • #1,062,774
  • Mar 28, 2016 11:49pm Mar 28, 2016 11:49pm
Quoting Rosey76
{quote} Now let us derive what is the optimal position size for each trade. suppose a system has a winning:losing ratio r, and the profit/risk factor is R=P/L. the basic gain compounding factor is F=(1+P)^r x (1-L). clearly F=1 when P=L=0 (no gain no loss). F is an inverse parabolic function of P or L (P/L=R=constant). F increases when P and L increase from 0, and reaches a maximum and then decreases with further increases of P and L, and finally reaches zero. Rewrite F as F=(1+P)^r (1-P/R) The maximum of F appears at dF/dP=0 ===> P(1+r)=r*R-1 so...
How to adjust position size?
you have a target for profit and a stop for risk set already at certain pips away, now adjust your position size to match the optimal profit percentage and risk percentage.

when you hear someone talking about risk only 1%, you are hearing nonsense. If you believe in nonsense you will take forever to reach your goal.
I ignore fools
  • #1,062,775
  • Mar 28, 2016 11:51pm Mar 28, 2016 11:51pm
next time when I talk about fibonacci, do not try to convince me not to use it either.
I ignore fools
  • #1,062,776
  • Mar 28, 2016 11:52pm Mar 28, 2016 11:52pm
Quoting Rosey76
next time when I talk about fibonacci, do not try to convince me not to use it either.
when you talk nonsense to me about fibonacci, I will look down on you.
I ignore fools
  • #1,062,777
  • Mar 29, 2016 12:03am Mar 29, 2016 12:03am
by the way I like Jack Daniel.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I ignore fools
  • #1,062,778
  • Mar 29, 2016 12:05am Mar 29, 2016 12:05am
Quoting Rosey76
by the way I like Jack Daniel. {image}
but now I am sipping the following

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I ignore fools
  • #1,062,779
  • Mar 29, 2016 12:10am Mar 29, 2016 12:10am
Quoting Rosey76
{quote} Now let us derive what is the optimal position size for each trade. suppose a system has a winning:losing ratio r, and the profit/risk factor is R=P/L. the basic gain compounding factor is F=(1+P)^r x (1-L). clearly F=1 when P=L=0 (no gain no loss). F is an inverse parabolic function of P or L (P/L=R=constant). F increases from 1 when P and L increase from 0, and reaches a maximum and then decreases with further increases of P and L, and finally reaches zero. Rewrite F as F=(1+P)^r (1-P/R) The maximum of F appears at dF/dP=0 ===> P(1+r)=r*R-1...
keep track of your trades, take record of every trades, then calculate what is your win:lose ratio for a certain profit/risk factor. Then use the derived formula for P and L to adjust position size for optimal compounded gain. smaller or bigger position size will slow down your pace to be rich.
I ignore fools
  • #1,062,780
  • Mar 29, 2016 12:51am Mar 29, 2016 12:51am
Good Morning !

Today's SR levels on MT4 Templates for EURO, CABLE, DAX, USDJPY & EURGBP
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
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