Menu
Sister Sites

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

Attachments: The Club!
Exit Attachments

The Club!

https://twitter.com/rswa_ru

very bullish long time view on USDRUB

Attached Image



wouldn't it spill the demise of the RUB?

I think, there where the red 1 is there has to be a red 3.

With this option, the USDRUB would also have some more upward potential, since we may be now in the subwave 2 (down) of the wave red 5 up.

I fear: only time might tell
Quoting PrincipleAn
Hey all, just found this forum since I started getting publicly active in trading. I used to use another forex forum but I guess they shut down their forums. I had a nice USDCHF trade for 50 pips that concluded a few hours ago. Although it was a very choppy and sloppy correction so it was a grueling 24 hour grind. Here was the trade setup before chart and after chart: Entered Long at market at 0.9690 Stop Loss at 0.9645 Profit Target at 0.9740 {image} {image}
+1 welcomed
you will find many interesting things to read over here.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
Quoting infinitus
EW on USDRUB which went a bit wrong. The author thought of a fairly deep retracement, but all what we got was a bit of it {image} https://twitter.com/rswa_ru/status/545465471655739393 but nevertheless: it was a great work at the time being, and such historical counts are prone to such failures
What EW could you count on this chart?

BTW: it is very nice indeed.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
Quoting infinitus
{quote} BTW: great to have you here
Thanks! It's been a while since we've spoken to each other. I'm hoping to get rolling again and into the markets. Thanks for the warm welcome!
Quoting infinitus
{quote} nice trade welcome on board Do you have Elliott wave opinion on EU, actually?
I'm actually long term bullish the dollar so that makes me a Euro bear, although I'm not sure the Euro's correction higher is complete. I have to count it as complete at this point until it proves me wrong. I'm posting my daily count, then zoom in on the 4 hr chart for some channel and wave relation analysis for the next big projected move lower. It's an aggressive count, but it's what the market is giving me at this point. What do you think?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - Primary Analysis - Mar-23 0857 AM (1 day).png Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - Primary Analysis - Mar-23 0900 AM (4 hour).png Size: 70 KB
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} What an optimist indeed ! Thanks. Best D.P. I WANT TO BELIEVE ! (Fox Mulder)
(i) or v, let's get the elliott wave technicians on it! extended 5th or top?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tvc_579e4320b6ef3a425e2febf45d3cbde8.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: YnQb8ML.png Size: 41 KB
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} (i) or v, let's get the elliott wave technicians on it! extended 5th or top? {image} {image}
Weel done
You have been perfectly feeling on Oil.
Please, keep posting your analisys, it is very informative.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
Here is my analysis of Cable though. It is long term bearish, but I see a great long opportunity setting up here with a wave ((ii)) rally. I detail the trade setup on my blog, but I'm basically waiting for a GBPUSD hourly close above 1.4122 to get long for about a 100 pip rally higher at a minimum.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: principleanalysis.blogspot.com.png Size: 53 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: principleanalysis.blogspot.com1.png Size: 66 KB
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} +1 welcomed you will find many interesting things to read over here. Best D.P.
Suweet! Thank you D.P.
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} (i) or v, let's get the elliott wave technicians on it! extended 5th or top? {image} {image}
My take on crude is similar to yours although I might be a bit more immediately bearish than you are.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: elliott-wave-blog-principleanalysis.blogspot.com.png Size: 38 KB
Quoting PrincipleAn
{quote} My take on crude is similar to yours although I might be a bit more immediately bearish than you are. {image}
I suppose, but C is 4x? the length of A on the x-axis (time)... Could be, but looks less probable.
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} I suppose, but C is 4x? the length of A on the x-axis (time)... Could be, but looks less probable.
This is a good point and is why I originally paused with the wave count but if you look at how close wave (4) is to wave (1), there is not much room for it to move higher. Plus, ratio analysis shows wave C at just above the 161% extension of wave A, so it's still int the realm of possibility. But yes, wave C is 4x longer in time than wave A at 24 bars vs 101 bats. But if CL continues higher that would mean a large series of 1st and 2nd waves which is a little too bearish in my view. My thoughts anyway.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: @CL - Primary Analysis - Mar-23 2135 PM (4 hour).png Size: 42 KB
Quoting PrincipleAn
{quote} This is a good point and is why I originally paused with the wave count but if you look at how close wave (4) is to wave (1), there is not much room for it to move higher. Plus, ratio analysis shows wave C at just above the 161% extension of wave A, so it's still int the realm of possibility. But yes, wave C is 4x longer in time than wave A at 24 bars vs 101 bats. But if CL continues higher that would mean a large series of 1st and 2nd waves which is a little too bearish in my view. My thoughts anyway. {image}
Thanks, good analysis
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
Quoting PrincipleAn
{quote} This is a good point and is why I originally paused with the wave count but if you look at how close wave (4) is to wave (1), there is not much room for it to move higher. Plus, ratio analysis shows wave C at just above the 161% extension of wave A, so it's still int the realm of possibility. But yes, wave C is 4x longer in time than wave A at 24 bars vs 101 bats. But if CL continues higher that would mean a large series of 1st and 2nd waves which is a little too bearish in my view. My thoughts anyway. {image}
I'm following this long-term count I came up with a couple months back.
It ain't pretty but one thing it has going for it is that in wave 4, wave c=a in length, and .618 in price.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: OILCHART (1).png Size: 62 KB
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
Quoting PrincipleAn
{quote} This is a good point and is why I originally paused with the wave count but if you look at how close wave (4) is to wave (1), there is not much room for it to move higher. Plus, ratio analysis shows wave C at just above the 161% extension of wave A, so it's still int the realm of possibility. But yes, wave C is 4x longer in time than wave A at 24 bars vs 101 bats. But if CL continues higher that would mean a large series of 1st and 2nd waves which is a little too bearish in my view. My thoughts anyway. {image}
I have just been blessed to understand that you are that guy Markus has introduced at the page of http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post8823779

I asked Markus if he knew what you had been analysing EU.

So, do you analyse the EU pair for EW charting?

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
Quoting PrincipleAn
{quote} I'm actually long term bullish the dollar so that makes me a Euro bear, although I'm not sure the Euro's correction higher is complete. I have to count it as complete at this point until it proves me wrong. I'm posting my daily count, then zoom in on the 4 hr chart for some channel and wave relation analysis for the next big projected move lower. It's an aggressive count, but it's what the market is giving me at this point. What do you think? {image} {image}

I am not so sure about the EU at the moment.

My main count is described here: http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/201...erm-count.html

There you will find the rationale for counting the bottom at 1,04x as the end of a wave 3.

After that the high at 1.1714 is now the wave 4.

Problem with this count is: the wave 4 should have concluded. When we trace out a higher high above 1.1714, then this count is probably wrong.

The wave 5 down may trace out a leading diagonal, where we would now be in the wave 4 up, or already wave 5 down.

The wave 5 down may also trace out an ending diagonal, where we have seen a wave 1 down to 1,0522 (ABC), and are now in a wave 2 up or already in wave 3 down.


Quite another possibility is, that the first impulse down was finished at 1,04x, as you showed on your chart.

Question is: is it reasonable to assume, that the EU will drop next in a wave 3 and 5 to come, which would mean, that we can easily reach below 0.7?

I do not know. All I do know is, that the wave down from the 1.3993 high is pretty impulsive. The following movements since the bottom are very corrective, which spells for me: continuation pattern

Maybe this? 03.10.2015 EURUSD long term count - food for thought


All in all: this is what I see

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Monthly_snapshot.png Size: 93 KB



maybe this (as described in above link):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot.png Size: 67 KB



my near term main count:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot 2.png Size: 40 KB



the channel gets respect:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 76 KB



at the long term 50% line:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Monthly_snapshot2.png Size: 26 KB




short term observations since the 1.1342 top from 03.17.2016:

as marked on the following chart the waves do not only look corrective, but also you can see many overlaps in previous waves

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_30 Mins_snapshot.png Size: 50 KB



Finally:

my COT data analysis last week involving DX, Crude, Oil, and EURUSD (all ponting to higher USD)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post8824786




Well, short term we may see another rise in EURUSD, mainly because to resolve the recent overlapping downward movement. Intermediate term/long term I also see declining EURUSD

On Monday the daily sentiment index in EURUSD stood at 60%EURUSD bulls. Unfortunately for us: can go both direction


EURUSD 30min chart:

suggestion

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_30 Mins_snapshot2.png Size: 53 KB
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I am not so sure about the EU at the moment. My main count is described here: http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/201...erm-count.html There you will find the rationale for counting the bottom at 1,04x as the end of a wave 3. After that the high at 1.1714 is now the wave 4. Problem with this count is: the wave 4 should have concluded. When we trace out a higher high above 1.1714, then this count is probably wrong. The wave 5 down may trace out a leading diagonal, where we would now be in the wave 4 up, or...
Hunting High and Low
Quoting PrincipleAn
Here is my analysis of Cable though. It is long term bearish, but I see a great long opportunity setting up here with a wave ((ii)) rally. I detail the trade setup on my blog, but I'm basically waiting for a GBPUSD hourly close above 1.4122 to get long for about a 100 pip rally higher at a minimum. {image} {image}

added you to my Twitter List of the Elliott Wave favourite https://twitter.com/singulorum/lists...oriten/members

Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} I have just been blessed to understand that you are that guy Markus has introduced at the page of http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post8823779 I asked Markus if he knew what you had been analysing EU. So, do you analyse the EU pair for EW charting? Best D.P.

see here few postings back

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post8832216
Quoting PrincipleAn
{quote} My take on crude is similar to yours although I might be a bit more immediately bearish than you are. {image}

that is what I see, too
0 traders viewing now