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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #21,161
  • Mar 23, 2016 2:03am Mar 23, 2016 2:03am
https://twitter.com/rswa_ru

very bullish long time view on USDRUB

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wouldn't it spill the demise of the RUB?

I think, there where the red 1 is there has to be a red 3.

With this option, the USDRUB would also have some more upward potential, since we may be now in the subwave 2 (down) of the wave red 5 up.

I fear: only time might tell
  • #21,162
  • Mar 23, 2016 9:04am Mar 23, 2016 9:04am
Quoting PrincipleAn
Hey all, just found this forum since I started getting publicly active in trading. I used to use another forex forum but I guess they shut down their forums. I had a nice USDCHF trade for 50 pips that concluded a few hours ago. Although it was a very choppy and sloppy correction so it was a grueling 24 hour grind. Here was the trade setup before chart and after chart: Entered Long at market at 0.9690 Stop Loss at 0.9645 Profit Target at 0.9740 {image} {image}
+1 welcomed
you will find many interesting things to read over here.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #21,163
  • Mar 23, 2016 9:07am Mar 23, 2016 9:07am
Quoting infinitus
EW on USDRUB which went a bit wrong. The author thought of a fairly deep retracement, but all what we got was a bit of it {image} https://twitter.com/rswa_ru/status/545465471655739393 but nevertheless: it was a great work at the time being, and such historical counts are prone to such failures
What EW could you count on this chart?

BTW: it is very nice indeed.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #21,164
  • Mar 23, 2016 10:47am Mar 23, 2016 10:47am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} BTW: great to have you here
Thanks! It's been a while since we've spoken to each other. I'm hoping to get rolling again and into the markets. Thanks for the warm welcome!
  • #21,165
  • Edited 11:06am Mar 23, 2016 11:05am | Edited 11:06am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} nice trade welcome on board Do you have Elliott wave opinion on EU, actually?
I'm actually long term bullish the dollar so that makes me a Euro bear, although I'm not sure the Euro's correction higher is complete. I have to count it as complete at this point until it proves me wrong. I'm posting my daily count, then zoom in on the 4 hr chart for some channel and wave relation analysis for the next big projected move lower. It's an aggressive count, but it's what the market is giving me at this point. What do you think?
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  • #21,166
  • Mar 23, 2016 12:06pm Mar 23, 2016 12:06pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} What an optimist indeed ! Thanks. Best D.P. I WANT TO BELIEVE ! (Fox Mulder)
(i) or v, let's get the elliott wave technicians on it! extended 5th or top?
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #21,167
  • Mar 23, 2016 1:12pm Mar 23, 2016 1:12pm
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} (i) or v, let's get the elliott wave technicians on it! extended 5th or top? {image} {image}
Weel done
You have been perfectly feeling on Oil.
Please, keep posting your analisys, it is very informative.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #21,168
  • Mar 23, 2016 7:04pm Mar 23, 2016 7:04pm
Here is my analysis of Cable though. It is long term bearish, but I see a great long opportunity setting up here with a wave ((ii)) rally. I detail the trade setup on my blog, but I'm basically waiting for a GBPUSD hourly close above 1.4122 to get long for about a 100 pip rally higher at a minimum.
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  • #21,169
  • Mar 23, 2016 7:13pm Mar 23, 2016 7:13pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} +1 welcomed you will find many interesting things to read over here. Best D.P.
Suweet! Thank you D.P.
  • #21,170
  • Mar 23, 2016 7:20pm Mar 23, 2016 7:20pm
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} (i) or v, let's get the elliott wave technicians on it! extended 5th or top? {image} {image}
My take on crude is similar to yours although I might be a bit more immediately bearish than you are.
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  • #21,171
  • Mar 23, 2016 9:53pm Mar 23, 2016 9:53pm
Quoting PrincipleAn
{quote} My take on crude is similar to yours although I might be a bit more immediately bearish than you are. {image}
I suppose, but C is 4x? the length of A on the x-axis (time)... Could be, but looks less probable.
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #21,172
  • Mar 23, 2016 11:47pm Mar 23, 2016 11:47pm
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} I suppose, but C is 4x? the length of A on the x-axis (time)... Could be, but looks less probable.
This is a good point and is why I originally paused with the wave count but if you look at how close wave (4) is to wave (1), there is not much room for it to move higher. Plus, ratio analysis shows wave C at just above the 161% extension of wave A, so it's still int the realm of possibility. But yes, wave C is 4x longer in time than wave A at 24 bars vs 101 bats. But if CL continues higher that would mean a large series of 1st and 2nd waves which is a little too bearish in my view. My thoughts anyway.
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  • #21,173
  • Mar 24, 2016 6:14am Mar 24, 2016 6:14am
Quoting PrincipleAn
{quote} This is a good point and is why I originally paused with the wave count but if you look at how close wave (4) is to wave (1), there is not much room for it to move higher. Plus, ratio analysis shows wave C at just above the 161% extension of wave A, so it's still int the realm of possibility. But yes, wave C is 4x longer in time than wave A at 24 bars vs 101 bats. But if CL continues higher that would mean a large series of 1st and 2nd waves which is a little too bearish in my view. My thoughts anyway. {image}
Thanks, good analysis
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #21,174
  • Mar 24, 2016 6:39am Mar 24, 2016 6:39am
Quoting PrincipleAn
{quote} This is a good point and is why I originally paused with the wave count but if you look at how close wave (4) is to wave (1), there is not much room for it to move higher. Plus, ratio analysis shows wave C at just above the 161% extension of wave A, so it's still int the realm of possibility. But yes, wave C is 4x longer in time than wave A at 24 bars vs 101 bats. But if CL continues higher that would mean a large series of 1st and 2nd waves which is a little too bearish in my view. My thoughts anyway. {image}
I'm following this long-term count I came up with a couple months back.
It ain't pretty but one thing it has going for it is that in wave 4, wave c=a in length, and .618 in price.
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #21,175
  • Mar 24, 2016 9:45am Mar 24, 2016 9:45am
Quoting PrincipleAn
{quote} This is a good point and is why I originally paused with the wave count but if you look at how close wave (4) is to wave (1), there is not much room for it to move higher. Plus, ratio analysis shows wave C at just above the 161% extension of wave A, so it's still int the realm of possibility. But yes, wave C is 4x longer in time than wave A at 24 bars vs 101 bats. But if CL continues higher that would mean a large series of 1st and 2nd waves which is a little too bearish in my view. My thoughts anyway. {image}
I have just been blessed to understand that you are that guy Markus has introduced at the page of http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post8823779

I asked Markus if he knew what you had been analysing EU.

So, do you analyse the EU pair for EW charting?

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #21,176
  • Mar 24, 2016 10:07am Mar 24, 2016 10:07am
Quoting PrincipleAn
{quote} I'm actually long term bullish the dollar so that makes me a Euro bear, although I'm not sure the Euro's correction higher is complete. I have to count it as complete at this point until it proves me wrong. I'm posting my daily count, then zoom in on the 4 hr chart for some channel and wave relation analysis for the next big projected move lower. It's an aggressive count, but it's what the market is giving me at this point. What do you think? {image} {image}

I am not so sure about the EU at the moment.

My main count is described here: http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/201...erm-count.html

There you will find the rationale for counting the bottom at 1,04x as the end of a wave 3.

After that the high at 1.1714 is now the wave 4.

Problem with this count is: the wave 4 should have concluded. When we trace out a higher high above 1.1714, then this count is probably wrong.

The wave 5 down may trace out a leading diagonal, where we would now be in the wave 4 up, or already wave 5 down.

The wave 5 down may also trace out an ending diagonal, where we have seen a wave 1 down to 1,0522 (ABC), and are now in a wave 2 up or already in wave 3 down.


Quite another possibility is, that the first impulse down was finished at 1,04x, as you showed on your chart.

Question is: is it reasonable to assume, that the EU will drop next in a wave 3 and 5 to come, which would mean, that we can easily reach below 0.7?

I do not know. All I do know is, that the wave down from the 1.3993 high is pretty impulsive. The following movements since the bottom are very corrective, which spells for me: continuation pattern

Maybe this? 03.10.2015 EURUSD long term count - food for thought


All in all: this is what I see

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maybe this (as described in above link):

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my near term main count:

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the channel gets respect:

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at the long term 50% line:

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short term observations since the 1.1342 top from 03.17.2016:

as marked on the following chart the waves do not only look corrective, but also you can see many overlaps in previous waves

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Finally:

my COT data analysis last week involving DX, Crude, Oil, and EURUSD (all ponting to higher USD)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post8824786




Well, short term we may see another rise in EURUSD, mainly because to resolve the recent overlapping downward movement. Intermediate term/long term I also see declining EURUSD

On Monday the daily sentiment index in EURUSD stood at 60%EURUSD bulls. Unfortunately for us: can go both direction


EURUSD 30min chart:

suggestion

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  • #21,177
  • Mar 24, 2016 10:25am Mar 24, 2016 10:25am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I am not so sure about the EU at the moment. My main count is described here: http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/201...erm-count.html There you will find the rationale for counting the bottom at 1,04x as the end of a wave 3. After that the high at 1.1714 is now the wave 4. Problem with this count is: the wave 4 should have concluded. When we trace out a higher high above 1.1714, then this count is probably wrong. The wave 5 down may trace out a leading diagonal, where we would now be in the wave 4 up, or...
Hunting High and Low
  • #21,178
  • Mar 24, 2016 12:43pm Mar 24, 2016 12:43pm
Quoting PrincipleAn
Here is my analysis of Cable though. It is long term bearish, but I see a great long opportunity setting up here with a wave ((ii)) rally. I detail the trade setup on my blog, but I'm basically waiting for a GBPUSD hourly close above 1.4122 to get long for about a 100 pip rally higher at a minimum. {image} {image}

added you to my Twitter List of the Elliott Wave favourite https://twitter.com/singulorum/lists...oriten/members

  • #21,179
  • Mar 24, 2016 12:48pm Mar 24, 2016 12:48pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} I have just been blessed to understand that you are that guy Markus has introduced at the page of http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post8823779 I asked Markus if he knew what you had been analysing EU. So, do you analyse the EU pair for EW charting? Best D.P.

see here few postings back

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post8832216
  • #21,180
  • Mar 24, 2016 12:51pm Mar 24, 2016 12:51pm
Quoting PrincipleAn
{quote} My take on crude is similar to yours although I might be a bit more immediately bearish than you are. {image}

that is what I see, too
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