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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #21,101
  • Mar 18, 2016 8:30am Mar 18, 2016 8:30am
Quoting Mad Russian
{quote} Hi , didnt know you had sentiment from all over in your blog , looks cool!!!


that is the penalty for not being here constantly (therefore you did not know)

when I do find the time I will check out other sources of retail data


in case somebody does know some good resources of sentiment data - please give me a hint
  • #21,102
  • Mar 18, 2016 8:30am Mar 18, 2016 8:30am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} so you probably do not know my own blog, which is a great resource to Elliottwave. Not because of my own analysis (lately I have not published much), but because of the so many valuable links to other great sites check it out: http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/ http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/p/sentiment.html
Very good work Infinitus. Impressed.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #21,103
  • Mar 18, 2016 8:34am Mar 18, 2016 8:34am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} that is the penalty for not being here constantly (therefore you did not know) when I do find the time I will check out other sources of retail data in case somebody does know some good resources of sentiment data - please give me a hint
im here everyday , wanted to ask you about your source when you posted warning about gbp sentiment, im just invisible follower


anyway great job.
  • #21,104
  • Edited 10:18am Mar 18, 2016 9:52am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} we may be near the end of the first wave up soon (either a wave 1, if we have seen the bottom already, or the wave A of an ABC up). The wave down may test the 30 area
Yeah, it is possible for sure. Just interesting to see the upper prices as they are still going to the direction choosen.

Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Is not 1.1360 an area to look for shorts??
I have two limit orders still set over here - they are at 1365 and 1378. But do not forget I am the intraday, so they (the orders) can be released at any moment.

Best
D.P.

P.S. Take a note of what we have a red oval - the price area is unfilled with volumes, so Markus might be right with his overall market vision.

Quoting infinitus
EW analysis EU monthly view - big picture: the EU has reached the lower bound(s) of the upsloping channel and is consolidating in a clear corrective pattern (at least for me) Corrective pattern means: we will go down sooner or later {image}
(the link to his post is above)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Hunting High and Low
  • #21,105
  • Mar 18, 2016 10:24am Mar 18, 2016 10:24am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Weekly chart. Technically we can be at 53-55 sooner or later. Best D.P. {image}
Thanks for your take! And looking out long term, I don't think we see 26-27 again in the next 30+ years.
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #21,106
  • Mar 18, 2016 10:30am Mar 18, 2016 10:30am
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} Thanks for your take! And looking out long term, I don't think we see 26-27 again in the next 30+ years.
What an optimist indeed ! Thanks.

Best
D.P.

I WANT TO BELIEVE ! (Fox Mulder)
Hunting High and Low
  • #21,107
  • Mar 18, 2016 1:37pm Mar 18, 2016 1:37pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} What an optimist indeed ! Thanks. Best D.P. I WANT TO BELIEVE ! (Fox Mulder)
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Yeah, it is still possible for us to see the lower prices. The really bullish view will be become valid if the price are above 1,15. {quote} what to say? You inspire me with optimism. Best D.P.

Now you can choose
  • #21,108
  • Mar 18, 2016 1:45pm Mar 18, 2016 1:45pm
Russian Stocks Hit 8 Year High - Up 55% Since White House Said "Sell"

  • #21,109
  • Mar 18, 2016 1:58pm Mar 18, 2016 1:58pm
found an old friend again:

http://principleanalysis.blogspot.de/


Have added to the link-list on my blog
  • #21,110
  • Mar 18, 2016 3:46pm Mar 18, 2016 3:46pm
Collapsing Contango Means Tankers Full Of Oil Such As This One, Will Soon Have To Unload Their Cargo
  • #21,111
  • Mar 18, 2016 5:24pm Mar 18, 2016 5:24pm
Next week 1335 ... can be important level.

D .chart
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  • #21,112
  • Edited 11:08am Mar 19, 2016 1:57am | Edited 11:08am
US OIL

Next week is tricky to trade ... could go both direction, it seem.
However i favor to continue up after a little more down or re-test of 38 - 39 area.

Daily chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,113
  • Edited 11:37am Mar 19, 2016 11:14am | Edited 11:37am
A little bit of Human Evolution
The first European was from Russia

Best
D.P.

P.S. you can find more at https://www.researchgate.net/profile...r/publications
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Hoffecker_et_al 2008_JHE.pdf   939 KB | 391 downloads
File Type: pdf hoffecker et al 2016 JASREP.pdf   5.0 MB | 607 downloads
Hunting High and Low
  • #21,114
  • Mar 19, 2016 11:45am Mar 19, 2016 11:45am
Quoting infinitus
found an old friend again: http://principleanalysis.blogspot.de/ Have added to the link-list on my blog
Good stuff.

Is he analysing EURUSD?

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #21,115
  • Mar 19, 2016 1:03pm Mar 19, 2016 1:03pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
A little bit of Human Evolution The first European was from Russia Best D.P. P.S. you can find more at https://www.researchgate.net/profile...r/publications {image} {image}

wow, thanks for sharing :-)

very interesting stuff - my evening gets exciting :nerd:
  • #21,116
  • Mar 19, 2016 1:04pm Mar 19, 2016 1:04pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Good stuff. Is he analysing EURUSD? Best D.P.

I only found EU analysis from last year, unfortunately
  • #21,117
  • Mar 19, 2016 1:56pm Mar 19, 2016 1:56pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} wow, thanks for sharing :-) very interesting stuff - my evening gets exciting :nerd:
I knew you would have had much pleasure and been satisfied.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #21,118
  • Mar 19, 2016 2:12pm Mar 19, 2016 2:12pm
some observations regarding EU

the lowest low on my charts is the 0.5633 in 1985. I think it is recalculated using the ECU

The highest high is 1.60389 in 2008


The 50% fib of this is the 1,0836

first chart is monthly, second chart is weekly TF

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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now look at the weekly TF:

do you see how good the 50% line is defended so far?

question:

if prices should rally significantly from here, wouldn't the big players not love to accukulate below the 50% line?

But most trades are done above the 50% line.

Buy low - sell high
Sell high - buy low

that is the recipe to make money

the big players can drive the price where they like it to have, at least for a short period of time. If they wanted to load the boat for a fruity long, they would do it below the 50% line. But most of the trades have been facilitated above the 50% line, and anything above 1.1456 (roughly) has been rejected quickly. And the trading volume below the 50%line was rather low.

The retail crowd is literally short the whole time since the bottom last year. My take is, that they will cover their short positions around the 50% line, or a bit lower, and will go heavily long. That should be the signal for further bearish plays


COT Data:

EU

EU might soon be in the right position to drop

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Crude

Crude may be soon in the position to drop. I do not like, that the small specs sided with the commercials

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Gold

Gold may be soon in the right position to drop


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  • #21,119
  • Mar 19, 2016 2:37pm Mar 19, 2016 2:37pm
USDJPY 82% bulls - might drop further

let us look at the COT data:

commercials are set for further drops - but keep in mind: the commercials have been often wrong in UJ when looking at that chart
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  • #21,120
  • Mar 19, 2016 2:41pm Mar 19, 2016 2:41pm
AUDUSD

87% bulls - set to drop


commercials are already set for a bearish movement

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Elliott wave:

would be a good position for a drop into a wave 5 down

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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