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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #59,641
  • Mar 23, 2016 9:22am Mar 23, 2016 9:22am
To indecisive in this area. I would be staying out. Longs will be looking for 112.75 to hold and shorts will be trying to break it. Battle in 112.58 to 112.47 if it gets there.

If it holds at 112.75 it can go up. I have no clue what it wants to do haha
  • #59,642
  • Mar 23, 2016 11:13am Mar 23, 2016 11:13am
today was all about usd buying. All usd pairs down in favor of the dollar. So today's moves weren't jpy motivated and likely do not reflect the true positioning of the jpy. So the medium term trend should still be downwards, but I'm not marrying to that view..guess it's all about watching these critical points that sit around 112.4-113.0. Plenty of support and resistance both ways.
  • #59,643
  • Mar 23, 2016 11:34am Mar 23, 2016 11:34am
It looks like BOJ is defending 111 level against USD. GBP/JPY is falling, AUD/JPY is starting to lose ground, EUR/JPY si in consolidation mode...
It's a great trade technically, broken H&S pattern, broken flag formation, RSI out of oversold zone, but if the "big guy" is playing against us, we don't stand a chance.

They should be at least honest and admit it if they are trying to weaken Yen's exchange rate against USD, so we can pull out of the market and make their intervention cheaper.

What do you think, is BOJ behind 111 resistence?
  • #59,644
  • Mar 23, 2016 1:18pm Mar 23, 2016 1:18pm
Quoting Tom81
It looks like BOJ is defending 111 level against USD. GBP/JPY is falling, AUD/JPY is starting to lose ground, EUR/JPY si in consolidation mode... It's a great trade technically, broken H&S pattern, broken flag formation, RSI out of oversold zone, but if the "big guy" is playing against us, we don't stand a chance. They should be at least honest and admit it if they are trying to weaken Yen's exchange rate against USD, so we can pull out of the market and make their intervention cheaper. What do you think, is BOJ behind 111 resistence?
How do you know they are defending?
  • #59,645
  • Mar 23, 2016 2:03pm Mar 23, 2016 2:03pm
Quoting Trendzalore
I had 112.73 as a point to watch for a reversal back down. Currently price is about 10 pips above. I still think MM has moved price up here to short. Who is buying right at resistance? Either poor traders or the big boys have decided to time to make this pop up. I think its the poor traders getting trapped long right now. I guess we will find out after 10am eastern.

Guess I was right. Too bad i didnt make a trade today.
  • #59,646
  • Mar 23, 2016 11:26pm Mar 23, 2016 11:26pm
...and then it shot to the topside again after breaking below all the fib support and 200hma. What's going on? Oh, nothing . Just choppy price action
  • #59,647
  • Mar 24, 2016 5:36am Mar 24, 2016 5:36am
There was mention at just below the 111.00 lvl JCB made an attempt to hold the line. Trying to find where i saw it mentioned, will edit post when i find it.
  • #59,648
  • Mar 24, 2016 5:38am Mar 24, 2016 5:38am
I shorted again, but I think I'll close it around 111.40. There's a doji candlestick on the daily time frame and a shooting star candlestick on the four-hour time frame, it should start falling again.
  • #59,649
  • Mar 24, 2016 7:54am Mar 24, 2016 7:54am
a very obvious double top has been formed. Now could be the time to go short and target one level at a time!
  • #59,650
  • Mar 24, 2016 7:56am Mar 24, 2016 7:56am
Quoting mappollo69
There was mention at just below the 111.00 lvl JCB made an attempt to hold the line. Trying to find where i saw it mentioned, will edit post when i find it.
Last Friday at around 1200gmt. When the jpy reached around 110.86 there was a sudden 60 pip spike. And each time it went sub-111 after that it seemed to shoot back up.
  • #59,651
  • Mar 24, 2016 8:06am Mar 24, 2016 8:06am
Looks like the same head and shoulder pattern as the previous dip except at a higher high and higher low. I would watch for break below 112.3 for a short. Some volume coming in now indicating some buying, we'll see.
  • #59,652
  • Mar 24, 2016 9:54am Mar 24, 2016 9:54am
still mixed signals I suppose. Failed to get back below 200hma, dipped below lower short term trend line and then went back above (I'm gonna start ignoring that trend line anyways). Yet again buying doesn't seem sustained. The rise of the usd versus the jpy has been on the weaker side, compared to the aud and euro and sterling.
  • #59,653
  • Mar 24, 2016 11:34am Mar 24, 2016 11:34am
Quoting Trendzalore
{quote} Guess I was right. Too bad i didnt make a trade today.
Being profitable is better than being right. I hope you know that?
  • #59,654
  • Mar 24, 2016 12:10pm Mar 24, 2016 12:10pm
Long EUR/YEN 125.85
  • #59,655
  • Mar 24, 2016 8:05pm Mar 24, 2016 8:05pm
Looks like the sm is getting ready to bring it down. big pull back soon in my opinion I still have three long positions open to ride free
  • #59,656
  • Mar 24, 2016 9:58pm Mar 24, 2016 9:58pm
Quoting mikespips
Looks like the sm is getting ready to bring it down. big pull back soon in my opinion I still have three long positions open to ride free
In hindsight, going long usj appears to have been a way too easy trade... Looking back, every dip was rapidly bought up to a higher peak giving bulls little chance to even worry. I'd like to join the party now but I feel it's a little late. Where's this thing headed for now? 114?
  • #59,657
  • Mar 24, 2016 10:00pm Mar 24, 2016 10:00pm
Quoting skyhok
Stopped out earlier and revised. Now set for shorts on a good size range - 5th leg of an ending diagonal c. {image}
Beautiful chart friend.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #59,658
  • Mar 24, 2016 10:22pm Mar 24, 2016 10:22pm
Quoting ell3
{quote} In hindsight, going long usj appears to have been a way too easy trade... Looking back, every dip was rapidly bought up to a higher peak giving bulls little chance to even worry. I'd like to join the party now but I feel it's a little late. Where's this thing headed for now? 114?
I think so ell. I see the long term trend is up so I'll be Looking to add long positions on pullbacks. If it gets into 115's I think it's a big move back Up toward the top.
  • #59,659
  • Mar 24, 2016 10:24pm Mar 24, 2016 10:24pm
Quoting mikespips
{quote} I think so ell. I see the long term trend is up so I'll be Looking to add long positions on pullbacks. If it gets into 115's I think it's a big move back Up toward the top.

I agree with the thesis of this move up. But not yet. Just not yet. Symmetrically it just doesn't make sense pricewise to jump to this conclusion.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #59,660
  • Mar 24, 2016 10:46pm Mar 24, 2016 10:46pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} I agree with the thesis of this move up. But not yet. Just not yet. Symmetrically it just doesn't make sense pricewise to jump to this conclusion.
Imo it does make sense if it hits 115, the risk is there cos of the gap up to the 120s. Question is whether it will reach 115 before turning down deeper south with the existing factors in sight. I'm more inclined to want to enter short only from 114 so that at least if it doesn't move back down my losses are small. At 113.30 now it's just a bit too uncertain for me.
Point to note though, it looks like it's broken above the upper short term trend line. (Sorry I can't post charts here cos I write here using my phone)
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