AUDUSD Trading Pit | Page 21 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

AUDUSD/AUDCHF/NZDJPY basket trading using 50 sma and 200 sma 16 replies

Pit Traders - How Do We Classify Their Trading Style? 6 replies

M Schwartz: Pit Bull ebook - How can I get it? 13 replies

Candlestick Chart Analysis - AUDUSD & USDCAD 1 reply

Attachments: AUDUSD Trading Pit
Exit Attachments

AUDUSD Trading Pit

  • #401
  • Mar 18, 2016 2:20am Mar 18, 2016 2:20am
If not levels i will be very interested to see what happens
0.7580
0.7450

GL
  • #402
  • Mar 18, 2016 2:31am Mar 18, 2016 2:31am
Quoting Dza101
Hello Everyone is this a bear trap? GL

FOMC set its tone to 2 rate rise this year.

Macquarie is telling us 80cents within a quarter and then an AUD downturn.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...17-gnlopx.html

What else does Fed have in this round of currency battle? Is RBA going say something for Australia's economic shift to tourism industry?

Yet AUD closed yesterday above previous high.....

What are the real drivers to exchange rates nowadays?

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
btw, does anyone know a better public link for US Dollar Index SPOT live graph?

Many thanks and good luck all : )
  • #403
  • Mar 18, 2016 2:44am Mar 18, 2016 2:44am
sold both AU and NU.
  • #404
  • Mar 18, 2016 3:37am Mar 18, 2016 3:37am
Quoting Dza101
Hello Everyone is this a bear trap? GL
my opinion
it could be trap for the buy on aud better out and wait to where it heads , sell trap well I guess what goes up must come down even for the retrace
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #405
  • Mar 18, 2016 3:41am Mar 18, 2016 3:41am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} my opinion it could be trap for the buy on aud better out and wait to where it heads , sell trap well I guess what goes up must come down even for the retrace
If you use a stop loss its no trap
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #406
  • Mar 18, 2016 7:43am Mar 18, 2016 7:43am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Tashkent I am bearish on AU fundamentally Australia and Aussie dollar are at risk with commodity price drop.China Japan slowing down.Don't see much up from here unless something profound changes. Unemployment numbers published today are not true reflection of economy and it is much higher. Could be one of those nice drops after all retails tag their longs becoming big bull trap. regards
Hi Davit,
i am also thinking the same. China and Japan are the 2 major trading partners (combined around 50% of total australian exports). it is just matter of time when the troubles these 2 countries are having will affect their major partners or countries who are economically interconnected. one of the things to watch now is commodity prices, especially metals.
from tech point of view the up trend looks healthy and strong now. bull was almost brought to its knees but fomc saved the day and now i think there is nothing can stop the bull until an important bearish event. we are in autopilot mode currently.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture.png Size: 121 KB
As Above, So Below
  • #407
  • Mar 18, 2016 7:49am Mar 18, 2016 7:49am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} Hi Davit, i am also thinking the same. China and Japan are the 2 major trading partners (combined around 50% of total australian exports). it is just matter of time when the troubles these 2 countries are having will affect their major partners or countries who are economically interconnected. one of the things to watch now is commodity prices, especially metals. from tech point of view the up trend looks healthy and strong now. bull was almost brought to its knees but fomc saved the day and now i think there is nothing can stop the bull...
GM T
I suggest using my pivot.Great tool showing key zones 61 78 100 R/S from weekly pivot
Notice rejection by 78R
Most traders are unaware of 78.6Fib which is square root of 618.This was "discovered" by Scott Carney a harmonic master.
regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 37 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Davits Pivot V2 - Copy.mq4   24 KB | 384 downloads
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #408
  • Mar 18, 2016 8:24am Mar 18, 2016 8:24am
Quoting asgcorp
potential area to initiate short trade in AU is around MR3 on H4 chart. This trade would have to be confirmed/timed with brent/copper price reversal, currently commods are still trading higher, therefore AU still got steam to push further, however rally is overextended big-time and can tumble any moment. {image}
generally agree but not sure if we are trading around the high.
short on most aud pairs.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture.png Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture2.png Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture3.png Size: 15 KB
As Above, So Below
  • #409
  • Mar 18, 2016 8:28am Mar 18, 2016 8:28am
Quoting Davit
{quote} GM T I suggest using my pivot.Great tool showing key zones 61 78 100 R/S from weekly pivot Notice rejection by 78R Most traders are unaware of 78.6Fib which is square root of 618.This was "discovered" by Scott Carney a harmonic master. regards {image} {file}
Thanks Davit, pivots look pretty accurate. unfortunately i use the most base platform and can't apply the attached right now, but i am sure others will make a use of it. i will also save it
As Above, So Below
  • #410
  • Mar 18, 2016 6:08pm Mar 18, 2016 6:08pm
I've been doing a bit of research into the rise in the iron ore price, which has risen appx. 29% this year, and is a major contributor to Australia's economy, and as other members here have noted the AUD/USD price has a close correlation to it. I've found a number of articles printed in the last few weeks, and will attach links here to three. The general consensus is that the rise is expected to be very short term, and is due to the fact that there is currently a rebound in China's housing market, which is expected to last through the first half of this year, and which is good for the steel and cement industries there. Here's a quote from one article "While the recent rally in the iron ore prices and has been partly caused by speculative activity in the futures market, the pick-up in China's housing market and Beijing's more supportive economic policy is also seen as a factor."

Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/resid...#ixzz43IPbTat5
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

Here's a quote from another "The problem is, the fundamentals for the iron ore market remain horrible. Over the years, short term Chinese stimulus efforts have had a big impact on the iron ore price. But after the stimulus wears off, the price fades."

Another factor seen to be contributing to the rise in the AUD is the fact that Australia's interest rate structure (currently 2%) looks good compared to the negative rates in Japan and Europe, so there is currently an inflow of cash. And no doubt Glen Stevens has noted that fact and will factor it into deliberations about future interest rate movements.

Also, the other metals have risen sharply this year, but as with iron ore, there is still an excess of supply, and a lot of the rise seems to be speculative. Shares in some large mining companies including Anglo, Glencore and Freeport (not RIO or BHP) have had rises of as much as 60-80% so far THIS YEAR. All these rises in metal prices and mining companie's share prices look good on the surface for Australia, as so much of it's income is derived from the mining and gas industries.

BUT most of the metals are still in oversupply, including iron ore. And gas prices are a reflection of the oil industry, which is in oversupply, but due to current optimism of future supply cuts, they are rising. So the rise in prices is likely to be short term, as is the rise in the share prices of the mining companies and oil companies.

In summary, until Australia drops interest rates (and the rising dollar is currently exerting pressure for the Fed to do just that) and until commodity prices once again reflect true supply and demand conditions, we have a rising Aussie dollar. But the foundation of that rise is quick sand. As so many members here have noted, the rise does not reflect fundamentals. But if you connect to these links i have provided here, you will get a better picture of why we have a short-medium term rise, which in my opinion is setting us up for an even bigger fall.

But short term the AUD/USD trend is up, so I'll buy the dips, but will pile on the shorts when the lows are taken out.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/iro...ip/2016/03/07/

http://www.mining.com/march-mining-m...-prices-surge/
  • #411
  • Mar 18, 2016 6:11pm Mar 18, 2016 6:11pm
One of above links was meant to be this

http://www.afr.com/real-estate/resid...0160318-gnlu1i
  • #412
  • Mar 18, 2016 11:34pm Mar 18, 2016 11:34pm
Quoting Blackopal
I've been doing a bit of research into the rise in the iron ore price, which has risen appx. 29% this year, and is a major contributor to Australia's economy, and as other members here have noted the AUD/USD price has a close correlation to it. I've found a number of articles printed in the last few weeks, and will attach links here to three. The general consensus is that the rise is expected to be very short term, and is due to the fact that there is currently a rebound in China's housing market, which is expected to last through the first half...
Great post.

This is what I love about fx trading, being aware, and research of underlying economic conditions that effect the market.

I watched an interview a week or so ago on bloomberg about the short term Chinese stimulus and the temporary demand on steel, for Government projects.

My prediction for the aussie is the monthly to close at .73000. We have 9 trading days left lets see how it goes.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #413
  • Mar 19, 2016 12:20am Mar 19, 2016 12:20am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Great post. This is what I love about fx trading, being aware, and research of underlying economic conditions that effect the market. I watched an interview a week or so ago on bloomberg about the short term Chinese stimulus and the temporary demand on steel, for Government projects. My prediction for the aussie is the monthly to close at .73000. We have 9 trading days left lets see how it goes.
Heavy short on Aussie both AU and AN
Will hold for 38S 1st.Major structure there (yellow box)
Its unlikely to go lower by the end of the month.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 39 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #414
  • Mar 19, 2016 12:27am Mar 19, 2016 12:27am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Heavy short on Aussie both AU and AN Will hold for 38S 1st.Major structure there (yellow box) Its unlikely to go lower by the end of the month. {image}
aussie nz will barely move down if nzd tumbles.
  • #415
  • Mar 19, 2016 1:12am Mar 19, 2016 1:12am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} aussie nz will barely move down if nzd tumbles.
It already did but now its recovering.Next in line is Aussie rate cut which is coming.Last thing RBA wants is having strongest currency in the region on expense of fragile economy.
They want Aussie at .65 so 76 is overkill.
Please look at the chart since rate spike it already dropped 153pips!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #416
  • Mar 19, 2016 1:19am Mar 19, 2016 1:19am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Great post. This is what I love about fx trading, being aware, and research of underlying economic conditions that effect the market. I watched an interview a week or so ago on bloomberg about the short term Chinese stimulus and the temporary demand on steel, for Government projects. My prediction for the aussie is the monthly to close at .73000. We have 9 trading days left lets see how it goes.
hi Paul , I have been on here a lot over the years and I have seen people say don't trade news don't trade this that and the other , I get a lot of information which I put into trades like aud/usd aud/gbp and have been successful over the years just doing that like you say being aware in advance is a key
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #417
  • Mar 19, 2016 1:30am Mar 19, 2016 1:30am
Quoting Davit
{quote} It already did but now its recovering.Next in line is Aussie rate cut which is coming.Last thing RBA wants is having strongest currency in the region on expense of fragile economy. They want Aussie at .65 so 76 is overkill. Please look at the chart since rate spike it already dropped 153pips!
it is a pullback not a correction. fibonnaci drawn on the weekly charts. see where it has picked support. 61.8% retracement. the upmove is still on and it depends more so on the kiwi than the aussie. kiwi is a tumbling currency and its prospects are much worse than aussie. it heavily depends on china and china stock markets has more or less peaked out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZDmWeekly.png Size: 53 KB
  • #418
  • Edited 2:13am Mar 19, 2016 1:38am | Edited 2:13am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} it is a pullback not a correction. fibonnaci drawn on the weekly charts. see where it has picked support. 61.8% retracement. the upmove is still on and it depends more so on the kiwi than the aussie. kiwi is a tumbling currency and its prospects are much worse than aussie. it heavily depends on china and china stock markets has more or less peaked out. {image}
Well you don't know if its pull back or correction.What starts as pull back may become full fledged swing and trend reversal.
Check out UC to get an idea.
Look it does not matter if you agree or disagree I have 8positions shorting this so should not matter to you.
Your reasoning is so amateurish....well China matters even more to Australia but not going to dwell here.I remember I had you once on ignore and looks like I may end up doing it again.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #419
  • Mar 19, 2016 1:39am Mar 19, 2016 1:39am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Well you don't know if its pull back or correction.What starts as pull back become full fledg swing and trend reversal. Check out UC to get an idea. Look it does not matter if you agree or disagree I have 8positions shorting this so should not matter to you.
good luck. I am short kiwi
  • #420
  • Mar 19, 2016 2:49am Mar 19, 2016 2:49am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} it is a pullback not a correction. fibonnaci drawn on the weekly charts. see where it has picked support. 61.8% retracement. the upmove is still on and it depends more so on the kiwi than the aussie. kiwi is a tumbling currency and its prospects are much worse than aussie. it heavily depends on china and china stock markets has more or less peaked out. {image}
I agree with you. I believe technically its a monthly pullback.

I posted this on another thread.

I like to trade keeping fundamentals in mind but as of late as everyone can see the AUD is trending against fundamentals.

On the charts what you are seeing is a pullback/correction on the monthly.

Since the start of the down trend (march 2013) after every big drop the aud retracted around 600 to 800 pips, always to the previous support level with a monthly candle of around 500 pips then straight back down again. The current retractment is 750 pips.

The 1st drop (from the peaks) 1700 pips, 2nd 1100 pips, 3rd 1900 pips and the last 1200 pips. If the pattern continues and depending where the current price holds we could be in another drop of around 1800pips which will bring us to around the .60 level.

When the economy is booming we get rising share prices, rising commodity prices, rising overseas investment and reserves, easier and bigger flow of money , rising interest rates, rising dollar, until we reach a peak.

​Then we get a contraction and a recession, the reverse happens.

We are at the current stage just before a recession, we have yet to have the falling real estate values and when this happen we are there.

Once the recession has bottomed out this will bring rise to a recovery and expansion, the cycle repeats its self.

I dont think we are yet to see the bottom of the cycle.

​This morning the aud jumped up over 100pip. This had nothing to do with aud strength but fundamentals of the US Federal Reserve.

​C-Trader sentiment is still 75% short
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
1 trader viewing now