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AUDUSD Trading Pit

  • #381
  • Mar 15, 2016 10:59am Mar 15, 2016 10:59am
New AUD thread, eh? I dig.

I'm also long and recently added a bit at these levels. I probably have a much bigger target than most of you though
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #382
  • Mar 15, 2016 2:25pm Mar 15, 2016 2:25pm
Well target not reached but still short with a decent result.

I think we'll see ranging but if it continues to test this 0.744444 resist that it's found. I will close positions and enter a long with a stop just under 0.74444

maybe even try to scalp a few pips while it's working it out


Mitch
  • #383
  • Mar 15, 2016 2:42pm Mar 15, 2016 2:42pm
Watch iron ore closely. It has almost retraced those level that pushed the Aussie up 400 odd pips. I think now it's waiting for FOMC decision (which I believe will be HOLD) then will fall back to it's 70 - 73 range.

Unless iron ore tanks sub $40/ton I think .68 was a good bottom. 0.65 maybe seen with a US rate rise and Aussie rate cut, my opinion is that the RBA won't cut rates again. Their decision to do that is to lower the currency, but if NZ was anything to go by, its only a temporary measure.

I am going for more long term trades as my current strategy required too much attention. Attention that I should be dedicating to my wife.

I have bearish sentiment I am hoping to TP after the next fall and add a buy and ride it back up. Maybe 6 - 12 months I think this pair will see both 0.68 and 0.76 again.
  • #384
  • Mar 15, 2016 3:13pm Mar 15, 2016 3:13pm
Quoting Blackopal
We still don't have a lower low yet. Retail sales in U.S. decline...Bad for U.S.D. Direction of the pair still undecided at this point. Needs to go below .7427 and close under to have a lower low on H4
have to agree with you, no lower low in my chart too, we did get a nice retracement, also feeling some bull weakness but i speculate bull is not done yet. will see how 7550 will react if goes up. i took a long hedge at 7454 to protect the profit from 7579 short. meanwhile closed the ea long for over 100 pips.
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As Above, So Below
  • #385
  • Mar 15, 2016 3:29pm Mar 15, 2016 3:29pm
we have 2 more weeks and if month closes above 7400, this could be a sign of reversal. something to be kept in mind.
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As Above, So Below
  • #386
  • Mar 15, 2016 8:14pm Mar 15, 2016 8:14pm
Happily for me price reached one of my targets 150 pip from the high. I'm now at 53% of my position size from the high and have a plan in place to reach 73% if we revisit 7594. If price goes down than 7414 is my next target so as to be just above the double bottom on 4 hr chart.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #387
  • Mar 16, 2016 5:24am Mar 16, 2016 5:24am
Quoting dab
Happily for me price reached one of my targets 150 pip from the high. I'm now at 53% of my position size from the high and have a plan in place to reach 73% if we revisit 7594. If price goes down than 7414 is my next target so as to be just above the double bottom on 4 hr chart.
yes, we had a nice retracement. we may find out today if this was a retracement or reversal after fomc. downward pressure is strong. however it looks incomplete without 7527. also short aj and audcad from current levels. we have us data coming in a few minutes and later fomc. expecting some fun
As Above, So Below
  • #388
  • Mar 16, 2016 6:22am Mar 16, 2016 6:22am
price action alone indeed favoring bear. if there was no fomc today i would add more to au short with sl at 7490 and re-entry 7527.
7380 is the 1st and most obvious target under current circumstances.
i rarely use fibs or mas but here we go. we have .618 ext right at 7300 (coincidence? probably) 0.5 is at 7210. 100 sma is at 7345 and 200 is at 7230.
meantime 7525 is 0.5 ext of current retracement.
daily heikin-ashi already turned bearish and 100 sma is at 7250
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  • #389
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:28pm Mar 16, 2016 2:28pm
let's see how market will react to aussie data this evening.
basically, it is pretty much over for bear if current daily breaks and closes above 7593
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  • #390
  • Mar 17, 2016 7:04am Mar 17, 2016 7:04am
Quoting Geppy
New AUD thread, eh? I dig. I'm also long and recently added a bit at these levels. I probably have a much bigger target than most of you though
well, Geppy, i do not know what your targets are but if you are right with the direction, first one on the way is 8163 and then 8642 (at that point it is reversal of major trend)
before fomc yesterday au was at the brink of breakout to downside, there were all necessary ingredients but it is really unfortunate for sellers that fed decided to back off from their interest rate plan to which markets reacted with volatility. actually fed's decision was made on the basis that global economy is still fragile (that includes Australian economy as well as Chinese) and that was not really bad for usd. US economy is still better than any other state's, it is a stronger economy among weak.
there is nothing one can do how markets may interpret news release but i will just smile if anybody tells me they knew exactly what fed would do and how markets will react.
now, au created many support levels and it will be Sisyphus's work to take them out.
if we close above 7593 today, it is game over for bear for the near future.
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As Above, So Below
  • #391
  • Mar 17, 2016 9:41am Mar 17, 2016 9:41am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} well, Geppy, i do not know what your targets are but if you are right with the direction, first one on the way is 8163 and then 8642 (at that point it is reversal of major trend) before fomc yesterday au was at the brink of breakout to downside, there were all necessary ingredients but it is really unfortunate for sellers that fed decided to back off from their interest rate plan to which markets reacted with volatility. actually fed's decision was made on the basis that global economy is still fragile (that includes Australian economy as...
Hi Tashkent
I am bearish on AU
fundamentally Australia and Aussie dollar are at risk with commodity price drop.China Japan slowing down.Don't see much up from here unless something profound changes.
Unemployment numbers published today are not true reflection of economy and it is much higher.
Could be one of those nice drops after all retails tag their longs becoming big bull trap.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #392
  • Mar 17, 2016 11:25am Mar 17, 2016 11:25am
potential area to initiate short trade in AU is around MR3 on H4 chart. This trade would have to be confirmed/timed with brent/copper price reversal, currently commods are still trading higher, therefore AU still got steam to push further, however rally is overextended big-time and can tumble any moment.
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  • #393
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:48pm Mar 17, 2016 12:48pm
sorry no time to post chart but I see some similarities on 4 hr chart between the recent candles peaking at 7584 and then 7594 on the 5th candle afterwards before 180 pip drop (11th to 14th March) to the last 3 or 4 candles - ie only a small higher high. MIGHT be a chance for bulls to buy a dip and bears to get some mercy!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #394
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:58pm Mar 17, 2016 12:58pm
ASX200 H4 chart. One more push higher and it's over. AU tumble to follow or could lead the way hard to tell.
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  • #395
  • Mar 17, 2016 10:46pm Mar 17, 2016 10:46pm
Well, don't fight the trend etc etc... But I'm going short. Interest rates in Aus are higher than most, employment results were fantastic (and pulled out of someone's ___), some bastard is buying (or covering) a lot of iron, oil, copper... even the ol' positive gold/AUD correlation is in play... so my only real reason is we'll see a "technical reversal", whatever that means.

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Will pull the plug just over 0.77 probably.
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #396
  • Mar 17, 2016 11:40pm Mar 17, 2016 11:40pm
Pinbar on the 4HR and railtracks on the 1HR. There could be a pullback to area of last low from here. Most pairs have risen sharply against the USD, obviously not just the AUD, but there are signs the adjustment might finally be slowing down
  • #397
  • Mar 17, 2016 11:45pm Mar 17, 2016 11:45pm
yeah that's true, mostly yen, cad and oz rose hard out. Still I'd expect a bigger dump in NU, since it's also weaker, but probably will transpire next week only. This week still push higher another 50+ points. Also AU is already 180+ points overextended on it's regular monthly range.
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  • #398
  • Mar 18, 2016 12:02am Mar 18, 2016 12:02am
Quoting Aussi
I am in a buy lets see where it wants to go
out now , wait and see mode on
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #399
  • Mar 18, 2016 12:05am Mar 18, 2016 12:05am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} out now , wait and see mode on
that's the best option for now.
  • #400
  • Mar 18, 2016 12:11am Mar 18, 2016 12:11am
Hello Everyone

is this a bear trap?

GL
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