Disliked{quote} ...and i will take that. Clearing main target in Euro with the test 1.128x. Well done all that rode the ECB/FED combo from below or from this week ... Sixth and final update from the FED: -> Changing short term outlook in the Euro from Buy to Neutral. On the rest of the board, laggers jumping on board in equities after the double CB whammy but in my books the hard part is already done and the highs already unlocked for the rest of the spring so expecting profit taking from the news flow any time in Equities worldwide before riding...Ignored
one technicallity: when you write outlook for euro - you mean euro as a currency on all pairs and not E/U, right? cuz otherwise you would write outlook for E/U, which may be the same but is given by combination of USD and EUR outlook.
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plus: do I understand well that there seems to be a consensus we gonna have basically 2 periods: one lasting through the early summer (april) - given the ECB/FED combo - soft positive (soft buy short term for extension US500) for equities (risky assets generally), neutral short term for USD/EUR - USD chopping slighly above of the mid term range on DXY.
The risky play via china/brexit comes in may/june (brexit cannot move forward so only china could trigger the risk play earlier) - negative for risky assets, positive for vix, volatility, usd and eur via carry trade.
====) what im trying to solve is timing on G/U..... from the short term perspective - dollar is neutral and even on marginal further weakening due to FED..... GBP: do you still have short term strong sell? Isnt it more neutral? The brexit EU deal risk-off leg finished. So basically what Im saying:
G/U has short term neutral state, mid and long term strong sell. The short term is gonna change once we enter the risky time after early spring period as described above = if we should favor risk-on inveroment for now I dont see G/U coming down.
So from my perspective: it does not make sense to position now in G/U short term nor mid term as Its gonna choppy around during early spring.
just interested if you would wanna comment or share again ur view on G/U

