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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,661
  • Mar 17, 2016 8:03am Mar 17, 2016 8:03am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and i will take that. Clearing main target in Euro with the test 1.128x. Well done all that rode the ECB/FED combo from below or from this week ... Sixth and final update from the FED: -> Changing short term outlook in the Euro from Buy to Neutral. On the rest of the board, laggers jumping on board in equities after the double CB whammy but in my books the hard part is already done and the highs already unlocked for the rest of the spring so expecting profit taking from the news flow any time in Equities worldwide before riding...
sisse,

one technicallity: when you write outlook for euro - you mean euro as a currency on all pairs and not E/U, right? cuz otherwise you would write outlook for E/U, which may be the same but is given by combination of USD and EUR outlook.

----------------

plus: do I understand well that there seems to be a consensus we gonna have basically 2 periods: one lasting through the early summer (april) - given the ECB/FED combo - soft positive (soft buy short term for extension US500) for equities (risky assets generally), neutral short term for USD/EUR - USD chopping slighly above of the mid term range on DXY.

The risky play via china/brexit comes in may/june (brexit cannot move forward so only china could trigger the risk play earlier) - negative for risky assets, positive for vix, volatility, usd and eur via carry trade.

====) what im trying to solve is timing on G/U..... from the short term perspective - dollar is neutral and even on marginal further weakening due to FED..... GBP: do you still have short term strong sell? Isnt it more neutral? The brexit EU deal risk-off leg finished. So basically what Im saying:

G/U has short term neutral state, mid and long term strong sell. The short term is gonna change once we enter the risky time after early spring period as described above = if we should favor risk-on inveroment for now I dont see G/U coming down.

So from my perspective: it does not make sense to position now in G/U short term nor mid term as Its gonna choppy around during early spring.

just interested if you would wanna comment or share again ur view on G/U anyone else welcomed too
  • #139,662
  • Mar 17, 2016 8:04am Mar 17, 2016 8:04am
-> When and how would you know that the current breach to the 1.13xx handle is a wick or it is going to be extended?

After the Weekly ROLL or MONTHLY ROLL.

And, GBP? They left rates unchanged and probably will for some time along with Brexit and US will raise atleast 2 times this year and GBP climbs back to Weekly High? (.44XX)This is the fundamental stuff I don't grasp really. GBP should be testing the LOWs in my book. I am positioned at .402X

Even with great US data today-Manufacturing being a big instrument to look at-it seems to be discounted with EU and GBP for now.

Yes, I agree that perhaps my stops are farther away than need to be. I will be re-evaluating that as my leverage was lower which I thought would help offset this if it went against me as it has. OPERATOR error. I have to really get this fixed.

Thanks for your input!
  • #139,663
  • Mar 17, 2016 8:21am Mar 17, 2016 8:21am
Quoting ahneo
Hi sisse, What ur view on gold ?
Quoting sisse
Third update from the FED: --> Changing short term outlook in GOLD from sell to Neutral Clearing all shorts from 1260.xx and flattening here way before first target ... sisse
  • #139,664
  • Mar 17, 2016 9:01am Mar 17, 2016 9:01am
Strong opening range in NY ...watch-out for OIL shooting the moon and Euro also triggering imminent short term break up alerts with Europe going home for the extension to the highs of the 1.14xx handle ...

Here not much to do with same levels, same trades, same all across the board...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,665
  • Mar 17, 2016 9:07am Mar 17, 2016 9:07am
Quoting sisse
Strong opening range in NY ...watch-out for OIL shooting the moon and Euro also triggering imminent short term break up alerts with Europe going home for the extension to the highs of the 1.14xx handle ... Here not much to do with same levels, same trades, same all across the board... sisse
cable is the strongest one ...BoE was less dovish than expected today...even though Brexit fears are still creating some sort of uncertainty, sterling keeps swinging agressively and now breaking up with more power !!
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #139,666
  • Mar 17, 2016 9:18am Mar 17, 2016 9:18am
Quoting hoom
{quote} cable is the strongest one ...BoE was less dovish than expected today...even though Brexit fears are still creating some sort of uncertainty, sterling keeps swinging agressively and now breaking up with more power !!
V. tricky one to trade right now. Textbook of a dead cat bounce confirmed after the FED/BOE combo... Sterling mid/long term future looks vey very bleak to say the least ...

For now strong reversal short term confirmed that can extend a couple of handles higher (1.47xx) but after that is just chop and jitters until the summer Brexit play...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,667
  • Mar 17, 2016 9:28am Mar 17, 2016 9:28am
Quoting sisse
{quote} V. tricky one to trade right now. Textbook of a dead cat bounce confirmed after the FED/BOE combo... Sterling mid/long term future looks vey very bleak to say the least ... For now strong reversal short term confirmed that can extend a couple of handles higher (1.47xx) but after that is just chop and jitters until the summer Brexit play... sisse
The MPC today being a little less dovish (there were outlier calls beforehand for a member of the MPC to vote for a cut) than in recent months gave sterling an additional push, with the bulk of the heavy lifting obviously done by the Fed.

I broadly agree with Sisse on this one; it's difficult to see a more substantial rally from here, given the jitters about Brexit will never be far away.
  • #139,668
  • Mar 17, 2016 10:27am Mar 17, 2016 10:27am
Hi Sisse,
I am learning too much from your posts and after each news I wait for your updates,
but I was confused,last night you updated after euro reached 1.1280:
Changing short term outlook in the Euro from Buy to Neutral.
but today you are talking about 1.14xx and higher
please guide me about right map of euro
  • #139,669
  • Mar 17, 2016 10:42am Mar 17, 2016 10:42am
Quoting Arshamv
Hi Sisse, I am learning too much from your posts and after each news I wait for your updates, but I was confused,last night you updated after euro reached 1.1280: Changing short term outlook in the Euro from Buy to Neutral. but today you are talking about 1.14xx and higher please guide me about right map of euro
I presume the anticipated upmove of EURUSD is a result of oil shooting up. Selling dollars to buy oil means dollar goes down, which in turn has an effect on EURUSD. I could be wrong though. Let's see what Sisse has to say about that.
  • #139,670
  • Mar 17, 2016 4:21pm Mar 17, 2016 4:21pm
Markets entering in Manic mode as expected after the double CB play. Equities completing the clean sweep and reaching intermediate target @2040 rather quick but sadly without me on board for today push while OIL confirming the break up and flying high and fast.

We are set to ride the pig for the rest of the week without taking profits showing one more time that bastards riding CB free money its still the best and easiest way to make money in the markets ...

Euro closing again super bullish and only a miracle will avoid the break of highs. Expensive tickets available for a roll play for those not loaded from below...

sisse

Quoting Arshamv
...I was confused,last night you updated after euro reached 1.1280: Changing short term outlook in the Euro from Buy to Neutral. but today you are talking about 1.14xx and higher please guide me about right map of euro
I have mentioned a hundred times in these boards: An outlook just shows the path of least resistance.

Markets don't move in straight lines and you can trade any side at any time even against the whole financial world in some cases. However, if you want to have consistent results with the highest win ratio with less risk and the best reward you will be ALWAYS better off taking the path of least resistance (also know as current direction)....

A short/mid/long term outlook of STRONG BUY/SELL it only means that you will be better off trading or looking for opportunities trading the corresponding side. Does it mean you cannot take the other say? NO ...it just mean play with smart money instead of being the sucker caught on the other side .

So a Neutral outlook means ==> ??? ---> Yes, it means that a range, is about to be or is already formed, and you can play both sides from a risk point of view ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,671
  • Mar 17, 2016 4:52pm Mar 17, 2016 4:52pm
Quoting sisse
Markets entering in Manic mode as expected after the double CB play. Equities completing the clean sweep and reaching intermediate target @2040 rather quick but sadly without me on board for today push while OIL confirming the break up and flying high and fast. We are set to ride the pig for the rest of the week without taking profits showing one more time that bastards riding CB free money its still the best and easiest way to make money in the markets ... Euro closing again super bullish and only a miracle will avoid the break of highs. Expensive...
So equities completed leg up, euro looks bullish, I guess we will get some big falls in DAX tomorrow. H1 looks like double top at about 10050. What do you think?
  • #139,672
  • Mar 17, 2016 4:57pm Mar 17, 2016 4:57pm
Quoting sisse
... Euro closing again super bullish and only a miracle will avoid the break of highs.
in your view, 2016 highs or even 2015's in play at the moment?

Quoting sisse
Expensive tickets available for a roll play for those not loaded from below...
you mean weekly roll?

thank you.

---

here yellen killed my remaining gold shorts. On the forex, usdCad looks yummy at these levels: dollar sore wounded but not slain, and oil approaching intresting levels.
  • #139,673
  • Mar 17, 2016 5:22pm Mar 17, 2016 5:22pm
Quoting hathor
{quote} Update: Move to point D was developed quite nice.Than first daily, later weekly sell signal arrived at D.And we nearly headed back to the previous weekly (buy) signal.But because last monthly signal was buy (its level can be found somewhere in my previous posts), it will form a weekly buy signal soon. Current week is unconfirmed buy, and if this week will not, than next will be the turning week. (daily already arrived).So it has still room to the downside, but be careful Ursidae.Overall:Monthly -buy/Weekly -sell (yet unconfirmed buy)/Daily...
With .
Hope you are all well.
I'm out of "office" since my last post and will be for a while, take care mates.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #139,674
  • Mar 17, 2016 5:35pm Mar 17, 2016 5:35pm
Quoting hathor
{quote} Hi Likerty! I'm not into Gold much, but buying under 1120 looks good deal to me. The lower, the better as usual. I have buying signals on nearly every time frames. (Important: the signal system is fine tuned to EurUsd, so it might not works with 'Au'...time will tell...as usual).
And time tells me it might worth a try.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #139,675
  • Mar 18, 2016 8:31am Mar 18, 2016 8:31am
....Eyes on the open for what it can be a superb week for bulls in equities. NY playing ball and we may have very long runners across the board.

Markets eager to ride as far and as soon as possible.... Not much to do here with continuation everywhere with any tiny help from NY .

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,676
  • Mar 18, 2016 8:54am Mar 18, 2016 8:54am
Quoting sisse
....Eyes on the open for what it can be a superb week for bulls in equities. NY playing ball and we may have very long runners across the board. Markets eager to ride as far and as soon as possible.... Not much to do here with continuation everywhere with any tiny help from NY . sisse
And will it drag EUR/USD further up?
  • #139,677
  • Mar 18, 2016 9:03am Mar 18, 2016 9:03am
Quoting TheSwede
{quote} And will it drag EUR/USD further up?
Looks very hard for Euro to hold 1.128x for much longer ... but not necessarily via equities. We are going to break correlation between Equities and Euro as early as today European close. The news flows are gone and digested already.

We are about to start 'spring' trading already so ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,678
  • Mar 18, 2016 9:07am Mar 18, 2016 9:07am
"only a miracle will avoid the break of highs."

Is this a possibility now?
  • #139,679
  • Mar 18, 2016 9:08am Mar 18, 2016 9:08am
Quoting sisse
....Eyes on the open for what it can be a superb week for bulls in equities. NY playing ball and we may have very long runners across the board. Markets eager to ride as far and as soon as possible.... Not much to do here with continuation everywhere with any tiny help from NY . sisse
Hi Sisse: In recent weeks, the correlation between Equities and Gold was broken (i.e., now same direction instead of opposite direction in the past). Any thought on it? Thanks
  • #139,680
  • Mar 18, 2016 9:15am Mar 18, 2016 9:15am
Quoting IMARICH1
"only a miracle will avoid the break of highs." Is this a possibility now?
why not? ...

-> When and how would you know that the current breach to the 1.13xx handle is a wick or it is going to be extended?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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