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  • #139,641
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:01pm Mar 16, 2016 2:01pm
sisse, can you explain why UJ is a sell now? i thought yen is safe heaven when equites are going down. i would expect now that yen is going to weaken then.
  • #139,642
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:02pm Mar 16, 2016 2:02pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote}
but honestly... the longer I look at SHS the less I think it works.... I mean the price broke down because of FED and not because of SHS pattern.... it´s abosulety misleading when it comes to causation
  • #139,643
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:04pm Mar 16, 2016 2:04pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} but honestly... the longer I look at SHS the less I think it works.... I mean the price broke down because of FED and not because of SHS pattern.... its abosulety misleading when it comes to causation
it ain't matter what yous using as long as you keep stacks coming in could be a freaking crysal ball.
  • #139,644
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:08pm Mar 16, 2016 2:08pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} but honestly... the longer I look at SHS the less I think it works.... I mean the price broke down because of FED and not because of SHS pattern.... its abosulety misleading when it comes to causation
Yeah I agree, I've been burnt a lot by following technical patterns like that. I also got burnt a lot by following divergence signals. For me personally pivots, S/R combined with fundamentals work best. *edit: and of course the great guidance of inspirational contributers on this forum by trying to understand their visions and implementing it in my trading.
  • #139,645
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:09pm Mar 16, 2016 2:09pm

"Yellen says the Fed could raise rates at its next meeting, in April, even though there’s no scheduled press conference after that meeting.

She says every meeting is “live” in the sense that a rate hike could be decided"


However, I doubt this would be taken into consideration until they do it once. Inflation has ticked up every month since Oct 2015 but we are still under 2% target.

  • #139,646
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:13pm Mar 16, 2016 2:13pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Yeah I agree, I've been burnt a lot by following technical patterns like that. I also got burnt a lot by following divergence signals. For me personally pivots, S/R combined with fundamentals work best. *edit: and of course the great guidance of inspirational contributers on this forum by trying to understand their visions and implementing it in my trading.
you're absolutely right. The way I trade is confluence across the board and of course I take the fundies into account. So that's why big kudos to sisse and other guys doing the heavy reviewing, really appreciate that!
  • #139,647
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:15pm Mar 16, 2016 2:15pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} it ain't matter what yous using as long as you keep stacks coming in could be a freaking crysal ball.
so join the circus....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #139,648
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:16pm Mar 16, 2016 2:16pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, With the fact Yellen is saying that at any time the FED can step in if inflation grows faster or labor market overshoots, could this not soften the fact a cut for one of the rate increases this year as their is uncertainty due to the employment data and inflation is upticking? They could raise rates if policy dictates it in the data. But, this China and Brexit throws a curve ball into it as well. Do you see EU not testing the .0800 to .0500 handles in next couple months now? Where does this leave EU in play now as I am sensing the MID TERM...
Euro/usd is always one of the hardest and slower instrument to make a large break (to whatever side). The size and importance from both sides make the implications of breaking outside certain ranges more complex than with other instruments. The pair is a benchmark for world markets so you need to allow markets to digest certain FA forces first.

Right now we have strong forces clashing a Mega BEAR ECB (QE and negative rates) with deflation and sluggish macro numbers from the EURO with a FED that started the normalisation path (despite dovish outlook today) which makes Dollar bull.

So i understand you wonder why on earth is not in play? Well first because we had RISK on play which has make euro the carry trade instrument. This 'unforeseen' consequence of the extreme ECB moves has extend the current compression range (mid term I am talking). As I mentioned a few weeks ago, we have only 2 M candles since the FED hike, it wont last more than this month or so.

Its going to blow sooner rather than later. First let the knee jerk reaction of the ECB/FED combo complete and then we talk about....lets talk in a few sessions and I am sure you will get a better picture ...

For now ....same levels, same trades, same all ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,649
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:40pm Mar 16, 2016 2:40pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Euro/usd is always one of the hardest and slower instrument to make a large break (to whatever side). The size and importance from both sides make the implications of breaking outside certain ranges more complex than with other instruments. The pair is a benchmark for world markets so you need to allow markets to digest certain FA forces first. Right now we have strong forces clashing a Mega BEAR ECB (QE and negative rates) with deflation and sluggish macro numbers from the EURO with a FED that started the normalisation path (despite...
As you describe: those are major fundamental forces applying LONG term and anticipation of particular steps in those fundamental processes drive the short and mid term legs.... right now there is no mid term leg..... only the fuzzy compression mid term range...

And now the question for billion dollars: the recent post ECB/FED combo flows are gonna set us to the upper side of the range in a few sessions..... but whats next? i know we can discuss this later but just generally.........

is there any way to know when carry trade on E/U ends?

because if not..... you talk about uncertainty due to china/brexit......

can this keep euro levitating on the upper side of range for long time?

U say its gonna blog soon..... but if there is a risk coctail on the making......

can it break the range to the upside on the mid term scale? (guess definitely on short term scale)

  • #139,650
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:49pm Mar 16, 2016 2:49pm
US equities lossing 2020.xx for the close unlocking clean sweep/manic mode for the spring. Dollar also lossing shot term floor after the super dovish FED but there is an awful lot of Support staggered all the way down.

Oil cleaning the 30.xx handle to 42.x and beyond is expected any 'minute' until OPEC announcement in the coming weeks while Gold on the brink of enter in wide chop zone for the foreseeable future.

Finally, Euro with a bullish clos in the making crumbs away from clearing main target from the ECB / FED play and finally set free from the. CB expectations for the spring.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,651
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:59pm Mar 16, 2016 2:59pm
Thanks sisse. I will refrain from questions until then....but, could you explain this for me?

"they are going for the clean sweep...hard to see who is going to step in the other side short term. Only large bears getting squeeze but its seem against the odds after today news ...."`sisse

What does the clean sweep look like to you? Equities (US and Europe) .2020/2080 or in EU? Not sure with ECB/FED combo at play.....

LARGE BEARS in EU? (large bears getting squeeze)

And, why "against the odds" after today's news since FED is DOVISH? DOLLAR SUPPORT remaining? all the way down to 94.XX (95.xx has been strong support.)

And, if you are saying this currency is a benchmark and doesn't breakout like other currencies; then, there is nothing to support a BO to the UPSIDE given EU's economy compared to US. Its not like the FED said its not raising any more rates. Just said at the moment looks like only 2 rate increase. Still better than EU in the FUTURE. I don't see why this week would close above .1224 if unemployment data is good tomorrow. It would continue the saga of what the FED is really watching.

HIGHEST MONTHLY CLOSE since FEB 2015 was .1224 since this compression range began(.14XX-.05XX) for a solid yr.
  • #139,652
  • Mar 16, 2016 3:50pm Mar 16, 2016 3:50pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Thanks sisse. I will refrain from questions until then....but, could you explain this for me? "they are going for the clean sweep...hard to see who is going to step in the other side short term. Only large bears getting squeeze but its seem against the odds after today news ...."`sisse What does the clean sweep look like to you? Equities (US and Europe) .2020/2080 or in EU? Not sure with ECB/FED combo at play..... LARGE BEARS in EU? (large bears getting squeeze) And, why "against the odds" after today's news since FED is DOVISH?...
I am referring to equities on the clean sweep.....On the Euro,, what is the current short term leg we have been trading (i hpe u too) since the ECB?....have we update outlook in EURO? ...if yes? When? ...if not? What has it change from the original maps? Why change?....You are jumping the gun evry single major mover and shaker....and that's because you are too close to the market and get lost in translation during sharp intraday moves after days of minion and choppy trading areas...sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,653
  • Mar 16, 2016 10:57pm Mar 16, 2016 10:57pm
Quoting sisse
....Check the Vix is entering in comatose mode... sisse
VIX scudding bottom again will offer great opps for strategic long volatility trades looking out to Jun-Jul as pre-Brexit referendum angst builds in the same timeframe as pre- Jun FOMC jitters....as is often the case in event-driven trading, the buildup is a bigger deal than the event - the old 'buy rumor, sell fact' - so I am looking for risk assets to grind up thru April and into May...then a sell May, go away led volatility jump in June....maybe post a trade or 2 here but more on Options thread if any are interested
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,654
  • Mar 17, 2016 3:20am Mar 17, 2016 3:20am
Quoting Likerty
U/J showing signs of reversal. Still another low in to 111.60's is a possibility untill it sits bellow 112.20. Bulls are targeting 119.xx
U/J completed its min bear target. Now its in a decision mode. Could get choppy inside 111.70/40. Bulls trying reversal in 111.40/110.50
Gold bears await in mid 1270's and/or 1290's
69
  • #139,655
  • Edited 3:57am Mar 17, 2016 3:34am | Edited 3:57am
Quoting sisse
Final update on ECB.... ---> Changing short term outlook in Euro via risk from Sell to soft Buy ...1.098x [check] flip for 1.128x[check] ...1,091x[check] for the play with NY... sisse
...and i will take that. Clearing main target in Euro with the test 1.128x. Well done all that rode the ECB/FED combo from below or from this week ...

Sixth and final update from the FED:

-> Changing short term outlook in the Euro from Buy to Neutral.

On the rest of the board, laggers jumping on board in equities after the double CB whammy but in my books the hard part is already done and the highs already unlocked for the rest of the spring so expecting profit taking from the news flow any time in Equities worldwide before riding a sustainable but slow leg up for the spring ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,656
  • Mar 17, 2016 4:00am Mar 17, 2016 4:00am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and i will take that. Clearing main target in Euro with the test 1.128x. Well done all that rode the ECB/FED combo from below or from this week ...
Even though I was convinced EUR/USD will go higher I just couldn't enter because I thought During the FOMC EUR/USD will shoot down first and hit my sl, I thought I don't have cheap seats, so better to buy the dips when it drops and ride it from there but Unfortunately it didn't and just went higher and higher, I missed out big.
  • #139,657
  • Mar 17, 2016 6:26am Mar 17, 2016 6:26am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and i will take that. Clearing main target in Euro with the test 1.128x. Well done all that rode the ECB/FED combo from below or from this week ... Sixth and final update from the FED: -> Changing short term outlook in the Euro from Buy to Neutral. On the rest of the board, laggers jumping on board in equities after the double CB whammy but in my books the hard part is already done and the highs already unlocked for the rest of the spring so expecting profit taking from the news flow any time in Equities worldwide before riding a sustainable...
I usually only daytrade and when I do I rely a lot on historic S/R. If I see a pattern at a certain place I know within reasonable doubt the next level to reach.

But if you think more long term how could you go about estimating how far such a soft leg can go?
1.17 to test prior height
1.22 as in (1.40 + 1.047)/2
  • #139,658
  • Mar 17, 2016 7:46am Mar 17, 2016 7:46am
More good news from the US. Manufacturing turning around from NY and now from the Philly ... just more fuel for equities and oil

Very decent European session and now NY for the first session after digesting the FED for the next 3 months....Equities and Euro looks ready to set the high of this month before unlocking 'spring break' mode trading ....

Quoting TheSwede
{quote} I usually only daytrade and when I do I rely a lot on historic S/R. If I see a pattern at a certain place I know within reasonable doubt the next level to reach. But if you think more long term how could you go about estimating how far such a soft leg can go? 1.17 to test prior height 1.22 as in (1.40 + 1.047)/2
Hey nice to see you around.

1.17 or 1.22 wouldn't be a 'soft' leg....If you are referring TA wise at what would be an extension to the topside? Well just TA wise 1.128x on the Q/M roll unlocks 1.15xx and marginally 1.17xx ...anything beyond is very locked as for today...

More importantly we are entering for the 3 time in the last 3 months in the well known 'choose your poison time' in the EURO for the mid term leg.... so I hope you choose the right one ...

GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,659
  • Mar 17, 2016 7:47am Mar 17, 2016 7:47am
sisse,

On the Euro,, what is the current short term leg we have been trading?

EURO Soft LEG ("truncate"-possibly) UP-BUY

Have we update outlook in EURO? ...if yes?

Yes, pre-NFP and Post NFP on the reversal. The one that got me. The one that has me locked away in my dungeon awaiting to be rescued.
PER US rules, I can't trade like you. FIFO and HEDGE not allowed so I can't even FADE a move as I have to sell first positions in FIRST.
Trapped at .0930 and .0860. ( I played the My MAP to .073X and got burned on the reversal.) It changed too fast on me while I was dealing with a client and the judge.

When? ...if not? What has it change from the original maps? Why change?.

Original MAP intact for a MID TERM LEG that may take weeks or months to develop. However, due to my positions and gator (respected trader in my books) calling for 1.17 to 1.24 has me concerned on me sitting here in my position. I am trying to find REASON as to how the EU can be a better currency over the DOLLAR as well as the GBP. US data good, rate hikes will come and Manufacturing is looking better. ALL pointing to a stronger DOLLAR. However, you did acknowledge why this should be but wasn't YET.

I am trying to figure a way to manage this position in the EU and GBP. I appreciate your SHORT term Maps/LEGS that you post. It allows me to see where I am at in this. Yes, I have an issue with getting more excited at NEWS flows; but, mainly only due to my positions at this time or since NFP.

Thanks for the response! All the Best!
  • #139,660
  • Mar 17, 2016 7:57am Mar 17, 2016 7:57am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, On the Euro,...!
Good.

First let me give you a very simple advice. Here is no room for interpretations. For a swing even a mid term one:

-> If your stops are sitting +300 ticks on drawdown you are doing something wrong. Remember our job is minimise risk first and plot a map after in which you know your way out. Get trapped is one thing and it happens, being the sucker holding a losing position in hope mode is plainly wrong. FIFO or not FIFO your stops were wrong.

Second and this will be a good TA exercise for you. Like the last time let me ask you:

-> When and how would you know that the current breach to the 1.13xx handle is a wick or it is going to be extended?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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