The Really Useless Thread | Page 6982 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,621
  • Mar 16, 2016 9:47am Mar 16, 2016 9:47am
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} I see a possible test of the .097X level pre-FOMC or during as flows fill in.....However, if we get a RATE HIKE; then, I would expect a test to the .051X at very least....sisse doesn't believe the .073X will hold this time on this kind of news. I would like a rate hike to help me out of my position. Whether FED raises rates is a FLIP to me. Most believe FED won't raise; but, LABOR and WAGES are good and inline not to mention CPI, Manufacturing and Production are in line as well. Inflation is showing signs. I would see a rate increase most probable NOW than by June or July. I do see the .108X being a FLIP area. Interesting to me as how many closes below it since the LONDON session and even in the US session so far. US EQUITIES would go up some with NO RATE increase but I believe as sisse pointed out, it may get to the 2020 area but not much more as I do not see the FED being very Dovish. Dovish in the sense they don't raise the rates. If they don't raise rates; then, I believe the language will be more about the rate increases throughout the year and Hawkish. We know ECB is not raising rates nor BOE.
Yes, I also have that 2020 US500 but sisse talked about some spring rally in case of no hike - and that would have to go much higher but I do not see the space there. Anyways, we will see what the map is. Im not gonna trade anything anyway untill FED is over cuz thats huge unknown.

In case of hike I would expect 1,080 and back to flip 1,097 and down. However, I dont know if I would play it. In any moment there can be risk-off :/ thats the worst problem with E/U now.
  • #139,622
  • Edited 10:37am Mar 16, 2016 10:17am | Edited 10:37am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Yes, I also have that 2020 US500 but sisse talked about some spring rally in case of no hike - and that would have to go much higher but I do not see the space there. Anyways, we will see what the map is. Im not gonna trade anything anyway untill FED is over cuz thats huge unknown. In case of hike I would expect 1,080 and back to flip 1,097 and down. However, I dont know if I would play it. In any moment there can be risk-off :/ thats the worst problem with E/U now.
You are right regarding him talking about a Spring Rally but I don't anything past 2055.xx for now IMO.

I have been looking at the .073X level to BUY EU after NFP and ECB. My MAP was from .0860-->.073X and I got burned on it with the reverse on the Double Whammey play. I am the one that got the Double Whammey! PA reversed at .082X

I agree EU is troublesome with the RISK on-off play. This is why I switched over to GBP. Got in too early though at the 1.4000 handle last week. However, I believe sisse indicated this is the better currency to trade this year as EU continues to be more burdensome at least for me. Of course, alot of it is due to my TIMING.

If we get a RATE increase, I believe the MID TERM LEG will be in FULL MOTION. With ECB QE and rate cut, Brexit, US Data (GOOD) and rates increase, I see the MID TERM and LONG TERM LEG in play for EU and GU.

GU MAP is .41XX -->.382X-->.365X/3X for now
EU MAP is .108X(FLIP for LONG to .126X)No rate increase with some HAWKISH tones..........and, if rate increase-->.098X(FLIP for SHORT)-->.051X with possible ext to .046X

I do see .073X being some support but not enough to hold it.....might get a bounce here...but not sure if sisse believes it won't even hold a bounce.

This is my MAP and my DESIGN....

Good luck out there!
  • #139,623
  • Mar 16, 2016 11:03am Mar 16, 2016 11:03am
Quoting rioMario
...On the practical side, holding shorts on gold as by previous posts and nothing new. Looking to fade euro in the next days/week. Good weekend everyone.
closing half ahead of mrs Yellen. Hope to jackpot with the rest (1260=>1190) but really few clues from the market in the last few days.

on euro:
--1.118 first resistance
--1.104 flip-zone (200DMA)
--1.082 strong support

good luck everyone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: download.png Size: 36 KB
  • #139,624
  • Mar 16, 2016 11:34am Mar 16, 2016 11:34am
potential H&S on D1 USDX. not cast in stone. just saying. Could work out though. Find out soon enough.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 111 KB
  • #139,625
  • Mar 16, 2016 11:46am Mar 16, 2016 11:46am
Quoting asgcorp
potential H&S on D1 USDX. not cast in stone. just saying. Could work out though. Find out soon enough. {image}
without volume always a difficult pattern, but in my experience, neckline not more or less a horizontal and top right shoulder above top left shoulder makes it mostly invaluable
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #139,626
  • Mar 16, 2016 11:49am Mar 16, 2016 11:49am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} without volume always a difficult pattern, but in my experience, neckline not more or less a horizontal and top right shoulder above top left shoulder makes it mostly invaluable
always look for confluence. check out H4 USDZAR chart.
  • #139,627
  • Mar 16, 2016 12:49pm Mar 16, 2016 12:49pm
Relax guys, sorry I didn't mean it as "making fun", it's a joke, I like the term, don't take it the wrong way, it's been boring in EUR/USD last two days.
Chester I'm not trading FOMC, just watching it.
  • #139,628
  • Mar 16, 2016 12:56pm Mar 16, 2016 12:56pm
...here we go for the FED.

No expecting much for today. Inline FED will be enough to guarantee the ZigZag in Equities for the Spring. S&P 2020-> 1990.xx -> 1920 in play first with expectations aligning for FED 2 or 3 hikes later this year with inflation ticking up.

On Dollar, losing 96.5x with the FOMC is enough to guarantee a test 94.7x leaving the highs naked for a break up later. Gold and Euro on track so nothing to update there.

Only a surprise hike will create a non tradable short-circuit short term ....

GL all ...outlook updates coming on the close...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,629
  • Mar 16, 2016 1:01pm Mar 16, 2016 1:01pm
No hike but FED is chickening out ... dovish FED ...no more 4 hikes this year .... watch out euro 1.13xx ...equities unlocking 2080.xx for the spring ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,630
  • Mar 16, 2016 1:11pm Mar 16, 2016 1:11pm
Reading in details we got strong employment outlook, slighthly softer inflation than expected making the whole FED is very Dovish.

First update from the FED:

--> Changing short term outlook in OIL from neutral to BUY

Watch out for OIL taking the highs for a test $42.5x rather soon...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,631
  • Mar 16, 2016 1:14pm Mar 16, 2016 1:14pm
Second and very important update for the FX board from the FED:

--> Changing short term outlook in DOLLAR from buy to Neutral

Comments coming in a few ... expecting the momentum play to come with the closing range ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,632
  • Mar 16, 2016 1:16pm Mar 16, 2016 1:16pm
Third update from the FED:

--> Changing short term outlook in GOLD from sell to Neutral

Clearing all shorts from 1260.xx and flattening here way before first target ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,633
  • Mar 16, 2016 1:17pm Mar 16, 2016 1:17pm
Quoting sisse
No hike but FED is chickening out ... dovish FED ...no more 4 hikes this year .... watch out euro 1.13xx ...equities unlocking 2080.xx for the spring ... sisse
Still valid?
  • #139,634
  • Mar 16, 2016 1:19pm Mar 16, 2016 1:19pm
Fourth update from the FED and for those tracking UJ.

--> Changing short term outlook in UJ from neutral to SELL

FED triggering major imminent break down alerts . Losing the 112.xx handle with the W/M combo unlocks the mid term wave...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,635
  • Mar 16, 2016 1:24pm Mar 16, 2016 1:24pm
Fifth update as collateral of the FED:

--> Changing short term outlook in European Equities from sell to Neutral and mid term from sell to Neutral

Eyes on Yellen but not really expecting much beyond the initial comments confirming the statement...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,636
  • Mar 16, 2016 1:45pm Mar 16, 2016 1:45pm
sisse, in US500 is it more like a direct play or the zig-zag? Its so dovish I would expect slow but direct climbing....
  • #139,637
  • Mar 16, 2016 1:45pm Mar 16, 2016 1:45pm
...and that was pretty much it ... Technicalities now but the core message is out, v. dovish FED from every front except in employment. Yellen even left some window open for a cut if needed with global risk (/brexit/China collapsing coming to our theatre soon???) etc ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,638
  • Mar 16, 2016 1:50pm Mar 16, 2016 1:50pm
Quoting chester123
sisse, in US500 is it more like a direct play or the zig-zag? Its so dovish I would expect slow but direct climbing....
Indeed double whammy (ECB/FED combo) for the bastards ...they are going for the clean sweep...hard to see who is going to step in the other side short term. Only large bears getting squeeze but its seem against the odds after today news ....Check the Vix is entering in comatose mode...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,639
  • Mar 16, 2016 1:55pm Mar 16, 2016 1:55pm
Quoting asgcorp
potential H&S on D1 USDX. not cast in stone. just saying. Could work out though. Find out soon enough. {image}
  • #139,640
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:00pm Mar 16, 2016 2:00pm
sisse,

With the fact Yellen is saying that at any time the FED can step in if inflation grows faster or labor market overshoots, could this not soften the fact a cut for one of the rate increases this year as their is uncertainty due to the employment data and inflation is upticking? They could raise rates if policy dictates it in the data. But, this China and Brexit throws a curve ball into it as well.

Do you see EU not testing the .0800 to .0500 handles in next couple months now? Where does this leave EU in play now as I am sensing the MID TERM LEG is not in play again until another rate increase.

And BOE tomorrow...
29 traders viewing now