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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #20,661
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:01am Mar 17, 2016 12:01am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Said almost the same thing to a mate over email about 3 hours ago, maybe I should patent my quotes. Could derive a nice passive income, lol. Interesting thing today is yes, bond yield curves should lower due to rate expectations being lower thanks to FOMC, along with Oil price lifting above USD40/bbl and above the 200sma on Daily is also a bullish sign. However, we are starting to see USD weakness, which is not good for the Dax. Key Fib level of 50% of 10,057pts is the next target to crack as it marches upwards.
We are up recently but not up for the year yet so shorting is dangerous. We actually barely rebounded/retraced from earlier losses this first quarter. Even though we look like we are due for a correction we may not get one as we are not yet overbought for this year yet. In fact we are still down from January 1st.
  • #20,662
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:18am Mar 17, 2016 12:18am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Said almost the same thing to a mate over email about 3 hours ago, maybe I should patent my quotes. Could derive a nice passive income, lol. Interesting thing today is yes, bond yield curves should lower due to rate expectations being lower thanks to FOMC, along with Oil price lifting above USD40/bbl and above the 200sma on Daily is also a bullish sign. However, we are starting to see USD weakness, which is not good for the Dax. Key Fib level of 50% of 10,057pts is the next target to crack as it marches upwards.
Your 10057 was spot on as a first target(pre-open). Looks that the main session will be opening with a gap. So any pull backs closer to previous close at 9983 we should be buying with a target your target 10057(maybe higher). Am i in a right track?
  • #20,663
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:30am Mar 17, 2016 12:30am
Quoting jupiter13
{quote} Your 10057 was spot on as a first target(pre-open). Looks that the main session will be opening with a gap. So any pull backs closer to previous close at 9983 we should be buying with a target your target 10057(maybe higher). Am i in a right track?
Def right track mate


I think 10,140pts could be the target today.

Targets above the 50% Fib are as follows:
11,431.50pts: Fib 0%
10,781.20pts: Fib 23.6%
10,457.80pts: Monthly 20 SMA
10,383.00pts: Fib 38.2%
10,269.80pts: Monthly 7sma
10,258.60pts: Daily - 200 SMA
10,141.40pts: R3
10,140.90pts: Weekly 20sma
10,082.20pts: R2


Key Supports:
10,027.00pts: 1H - 7 SMA
10,026.10pts: 1M - 200 SMA
10,007.40pts: R1
10,002.40pts: 5M - 200 SMA & BRN
9,995.80pts: 1H - 20 SMA
9,995.60pts: 4H - 7 SMA
  • #20,664
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:31am Mar 17, 2016 12:31am
Seems that 10057 target was broken. My next target up is 10104. My question is where should i enter a pull back. any thoughts?
  • #20,665
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:32am Mar 17, 2016 12:32am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Def right track mate I think 10,140pts could be the target today. Targets above the 50% Fib are as follows: 11,431.50pts: Fib 0% 10,781.20pts: Fib 23.6% 10,457.80pts: Monthly 20 SMA 10,383.00pts: Fib 38.2% 10,269.80pts: Monthly 7sma 10,258.60pts: Daily - 200 SMA 10,141.40pts: R3 10,140.90pts: Weekly 20sma 10,082.20pts: R2 Key Supports: 10,027.00pts: 1H - 7 SMA 10,026.10pts: 1M - 200 SMA 10,007.40pts: R1 10,002.40pts: 5M - 200 SMA & BRN
helps a lot
  • #20,666
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:37am Mar 17, 2016 12:37am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Def right track mate I think 10,140pts could be the target today. Targets above the 50% Fib are as follows: 11,431.50pts: Fib 0% 10,781.20pts: Fib 23.6% 10,457.80pts: Monthly 20 SMA 10,383.00pts: Fib 38.2% 10,269.80pts: Monthly 7sma 10,258.60pts: Daily - 200 SMA 10,141.40pts: R3 10,140.90pts: Weekly 20sma 10,082.20pts: R2 Key Supports: 10,027.00pts: 1H - 7 SMA 10,026.10pts: 1M - 200 SMA 10,007.40pts: R1 10,002.40pts: 5M - 200 SMA & BRN 9,995.80pts: 1H - 20 SMA 9,995.60pts: 4H - 7 SMA

Are you in yet? I got in and out(too early)(+13pts)
  • #20,667
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:39am Mar 17, 2016 12:39am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Def right track mate I think 10,140pts could be the target today. Targets above the 50% Fib are as follows: 11,431.50pts: Fib 0% 10,781.20pts: Fib 23.6% 10,457.80pts: Monthly 20 SMA 10,383.00pts: Fib 38.2% 10,269.80pts: Monthly 7sma 10,258.60pts: Daily - 200 SMA 10,141.40pts: R3 10,140.90pts: Weekly 20sma 10,082.20pts: R2 Key Supports: 10,027.00pts: 1H - 7 SMA 10,026.10pts: 1M - 200 SMA 10,007.40pts: R1 10,002.40pts: 5M - 200 SMA & BRN 9,995.80pts: 1H - 20 SMA 9,995.60pts: 4H - 7 SMA

Your 10026 seems as an excellent entry point. Let see if we can get down there before the open.
  • #20,668
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:41am Mar 17, 2016 12:41am
Quoting jupiter13
Seems that 10057 target was broken. My next target up is 10104. My question is where should i enter a pull back. any thoughts?
Maybe 20sma on 5m, or 200sma on 1m... But really depends on price action around Xetra Open, and also how the Dax market reacts to a weaker USD today.
  • #20,669
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:43am Mar 17, 2016 12:43am
Quoting jupiter13
{quote} Are you in yet? I got in and out(too early)(+13pts)
I took 20pts earlier and exited at 10064pts, and added another at 10068pts.

Will be looking for entries on 20sma on 5m, and/or 200sma on 1m. If we get there.
  • #20,670
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:46am Mar 17, 2016 12:46am
My only concern today is EURUSD looks bullish, as 2m 20sma is holding as it moves higher. This will limit the upside on the Dax.
  • #20,671
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:49am Mar 17, 2016 12:49am
Quoting PariCovek
My only concern today is EURUSD looks bullish, as 2m 20sma is holding as it moves higher. This will limit the upside on the Dax.
Even if the upside is limited we should try and bank some points based on the momentum at the open.
  • #20,672
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:56am Mar 17, 2016 12:56am
Options expire tomorrow so be careful today..
  • #20,673
  • Mar 17, 2016 1:11am Mar 17, 2016 1:11am
Looks like today is start of reversal, sell limit on 10051 SL 10075, TP 9968
  • #20,674
  • Mar 17, 2016 1:13am Mar 17, 2016 1:13am
Market gone crazy after FOMC decisions. All not aligning. NKY having big hit. I should agree a reversal occurs soon.
  • #20,675
  • Mar 17, 2016 1:17am Mar 17, 2016 1:17am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Said almost the same thing to a mate over email about 3 hours ago, maybe I should patent my quotes. Could derive a nice passive income, lol. Interesting thing today is yes, bond yield curves should lower due to rate expectations being lower thanks to FOMC, along with Oil price lifting above USD40/bbl and above the 200sma on Daily is also a bullish sign. However, we are starting to see USD weakness, which is not good for the Dax. Key Fib level of 50% of 10,057pts is the next target to crack as it marches upwards.
Agree. A weak dollar should be not good for equities especially DAX. I am so curious why it doesn't give a big hit on equities yesterday. Delayed or because of oil climbing?
  • #20,676
  • Mar 17, 2016 1:17am Mar 17, 2016 1:17am
Yeah trade with care guys.... This USD weakness may cause some market havoc to begin with it seems.
  • #20,677
  • Mar 17, 2016 1:37am Mar 17, 2016 1:37am
I bought more long entries on 200sma on 5m at 10,008pts.... Closed the losing trades with a few of the ones I opened for net trades of breakeven, then left the rest open and closed at 200sma on 1m.

Not ideal trading, but still took positive pips.
  • #20,678
  • Mar 17, 2016 1:41am Mar 17, 2016 1:41am
Quoting ChinaTraderz
{quote} Agree. A weak dollar should be not good for equities especially DAX. I am so curious why it doesn't give a big hit on equities yesterday. Delayed or because of oil climbing?
I'd say its delayed, but as the Fed has reduced its rate hike targets, this is positive for Equities as you effectively get lower yields on Fixed Income.

So its kind of a mix bag of good news and bad news that the markets need to digest today.
  • #20,679
  • Mar 17, 2016 1:44am Mar 17, 2016 1:44am
Quoting PariCovek
I bought more long entries on 200sma on 5m at 10,008pts.... Closed the losing trades with a few of the ones I opened for net trades of breakeven, then left the rest open and closed at 200sma on 1m. Not ideal trading, but still took positive pips.
Same here. Just few positive pips. You see this shows you that we have to base our decision based on the charts and not what we think might happen.
  • #20,680
  • Mar 17, 2016 1:48am Mar 17, 2016 1:48am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I'd say its delayed, but as the Fed has reduced its rate hike targets, this is positive for Equities as you effectively get lower yields on Fixed Income. So its kind of a mix bag of good news and bad news that the markets need to digest today.
I believe it is more likely for investor to digest today therefore delayed occurs.
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