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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Attachments: Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade
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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

Quoting heispark
Does anybody know about the performance of Scott Carney as a trader, not a educator? Watching recent poor performance of Jason Stapleton, I doubt the accuracy and consistency of harmonics.... Indeed, when Jason's talking about patterns, he says its accuracy is about 60%, which is 10% more than tossing up a coin. I want 70-80% accuracy minimum. Also, RR is somewhat overstated. In my opinion, it's barely 1:1 thanks to stop hunters. I am 4H based trader but close the position mostly within 3 bars (average trading period is 10 hours). It means I want...
Hello, Thank you for your question and I will be blunt and 100% honest with you. I hope you don't take it the wrong way but I would not be doing you any favors if I answer this any other way.

Every Trader will have different performances, success is a measure of the individual and not the system. Accuracy improves from the hours you spend working on your technique. I completely on your position on harmonics perhaps this comment comes from receiving poor instructions from the Stapleton group. They have taken Scott's work and turned it into something that it is not. Your approach to trading the 4H doesn't make much sense to me as there is nothing from an order flow prospective that you are following. I would need to understand your methodology further to give you a better feedback. Trading at a high risk reward is critical to profitability and reducing drawdown. Why would you have to force yourself to be 70% 80% accurate to make money. I trade at a better then 70% accuracy and my risk reward is 2:1 or better so losing money long term is impossible.

Stapleton does not trade true market harmonics they also have no idea how to properly qualify the patterns and enter every pattern they find blindly because they have little to no clue how to properly assess the order flow to determine which setups are worth taking and which are not. I would like to get on skype with you and have this discussion with you so that we don't drift in a different direction. I think your comments are not accurate and may come from a lack of understanding true market Harmonics.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Quoting Timwelch
Hey all! Part of my ongoing strategy for growth and learning is to go back over the prior week with a fresh set of eyeballs, bar by bar, during all of the sessions that i would be trading (7am-11am EST). I think it's good practice, and hones in on the skills that we are being taught here by Mr. Pip. To that end, I usually take screen shots of trades I made, and then compare it to where I would have traded with the new knowledge and such. It's a good growth experience, and I think everyone can benefit from that. With that said, I decided that screenshots...
Hello Tim nice videos and I too have been working with tighter stops like you have. I love how you have taken the lessons I have taught here and have adapted them to your personality and style. Nice work!
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Quoting OctaveJay509
{quote} Hi Heispark, Allow me to offer my opinion here, and I hope that you can learn something new... In order to trade Harmonic Patterns Successfully, you need to change your perspective a little bit... Most people use Harmonic as a strategy, but you have to use it as an Entry Technique... I have 3 simple rules when I make decisions in the market: #1 - Identify the Overall Market Trend on Daily or Weekly TF #2 - Look for Entries on Lower Timeframe #3 - Manage My Risk until my SL is above My Entry, then walk away. Right now there's a Bearish Bat...
We really haven't directly discussed the harmonic patterns but I would like to mention that pattern summitry is important when we consider the quality of the patterns. The first half should be complimentary of the second half. This adds more strength to the patterns and the opportunity. This of course does not mean what these are going to fail but something to keep in mind and I will discuss this in detail when we get to them.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Quoting Timwelch
Hey all! Part of my ongoing strategy for growth and learning is to go back over the prior week with a fresh set of eyeballs, bar by bar, during all of the sessions that i would be trading (7am-11am EST). I think it's good practice, and hones in on the skills that we are being taught here by Mr. Pip. To that end, I usually take screen shots of trades I made, and then compare it to where I would have traded with the new knowledge and such. It's a good growth experience, and I think everyone can benefit from that. With that said, I decided that screenshots...
Enjoyed the videos. Nice work. Thanks for sharing.
Quoting evocpr19
Dear all, Dear Mr. Pip, friday was a mess for me. After getting at 1 a NSH, I was looking for an opportunity to enter long. Point 2 appeared good (I have now seen that this represents a 78.6 correction of the last up swing; maybe this should have ring my alarm bells). So enter with expectation to get a 1 to 1 move up for building a NSH. Since at point 3 the expected NSH failed, I looked at the retest to enter short (point 4). However, since price came back strongly to point 5 (now I know that it did not form a NSH), I cancelled my short (with loss)...
Bad days happen! Remember to let the order flow help you determine what kind of correction you should get and compare that to what price achieved this will help you determine how probable are your expectations. Don't get impulsive and start chasing price around the chart.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Mr Pip

Can you see what I did wrong here?

Link to post - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8806525#post8806525

Quoting jmezz
Then I'm wondering where I went wrong here: - Price broke swing high (yellow dashed line) so I thought was ok to look for long as long term flow was up. - Took 'entry' at the 50fib / structure / ~harmonic pullback - Was looking for 1:1 but price took me out So what did I miss here? {image}
Quoting sigill
Hi, I apologize if this has been spelled out somewhere, I wasn't able to find it. In the bar-by-bar video, rotation is described at 14:26 as a candle that barely trades above/below its open and then closes beyond its 50% (or in its bottom/top 2/3). But Mr Pip wrote here that it's when a candle does not trade outside the previous candle (volume?) and then closes beyond the 50% of the previous candle: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8779215#post8779215 Am I correct in thinking that both of these is a valid rotation? I just...
Both are basically the same thing what you don't want is a candle that trades significantly higher or lower then the previous one and definitely not much above or below it's own open as this would indicate that there is still enough buying or selling pressure present. You ideally want to see none.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Quoting jmezz
Mr Pip Can you see what I did wrong here? Link to post - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8806525#post8806525 {quote}
Your trade did not look bad but the long term order flow had changed and the bears were showing strength. Not every trade will work out my friend.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Your trade did not look bad but the long term order flow had changed and the bears were showing strength. Not every trade will work out my friend.
Thanks for your input. I know every trade won't work but I just want to be certain there wasn't anything I missed

At which point did the long term flow change, was it that swing low retest at 930? At the time of trade I still believed that long term order flow was up so appears I misread the chart.
Quoting jmezz
{quote} Thanks for your input. I know every trade won't work but I just want to be certain there wasn't anything I missed At which point did the long term flow change, was it that swing low retest at 930? At the time of trade I still believed that long term order flow was up so appears I misread the chart.
You did nothing wrong. There was a valid setup to the long side but when you are unsure you can skip a trade setup or if you decide to take it stay on your toes and be ready to flip direction without waiting for your stop loss to be hit. The way price moved after your entry long, we could conclude quickly enough the trade would not work and that the sentiment had change to the downside given the deep correction. Flipping direction is not easy but in certain cases it is a logical choice.
Quoting crixus
{quote} You did nothing wrong. There was a valid setup to the long side but when you are unsure you can skip a trade setup or if you decide to take it stay on your toes and be ready to flip direction without waiting for your stop loss to be hit. The way price moved after your entry long, we could conclude quickly enough the trade would not work and that the sentiment had change to the downside given the deep correction. Flipping direction is not easy but in certain cases it is a logical choice.
Thanks for your reply.

Glad to know that my head was in the right place at the time of entry, my issues just seem to be trade management.
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Hello, You can't look at anything from a pip value specially trends. The truth of the matter is that we can never know when a trend will continue or fail. What we do have is expectations. You must know with 100% certainty what is the expectation you are looking to trade (long term or short term) and have realistic targets and stops. If there is enough room to trade counter an expectation of a NSH or NSL you must understand that you are trading a correction and you must manage that trade with more aggression. Don't get lost in the order flow...
I understand what you say,and i follow our rules to identify an uptrend or a downtrend.I also have in mind that we play with expectations and will never be 100% accurate.

On the other hand when i have an expectation that fails there will always be the excuse :
''the market followed the long term order flow ,that's why it didn't follow my expectation''.

that's why i came up with this question (with the pip value to identify trends).To get rid of this excuse!Because a downtrend (short term )can be a correction of an uptrend (long term) and this can be a correction of another downtrend (longer term) and......you get the point.

..but according to your answer i see that i can't have this kind of rules.
learn more , earn more
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Both are basically the same thing what you don't want is a candle that trades significantly higher or lower then the previous one and definitely not much above or below it's own open as this would indicate that there is still enough buying or selling pressure present. You ideally want to see none.
OK that makes sense. Regarding the other levels, probably I need to look at both (previous 50% and current 2/3) and make a discretionary judgment of the strength of rotation.

For example, these match your two descriptions separately but not both of them. so conservatively I should wait to see both levels met.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_20160313_161326.jpg Size: 47 KB

(not looking at any structure here, just the bars themselves)

Sorry to get hung up on details, maybe it's not important.
nntr
Quoting GnG
{quote} I understand what you say,and i follow our rules to identify an uptrend or a downtrend.I also have in mind that we play with expectations and will never be 100% accurate. On the other hand when i have an expectation that fails there will always be the excuse : ''the market followed the long term order flow ,that's why it didn't follow my expectation''. that's why i came up with this question (with the pip value to identify trends).To get rid of this excuse!Because a downtrend (short term )can be a correction of an uptrend (long term) and...
Put the emphasis on the order flow you are looking to trade. There will always be longer term expectations above your expectations specially from an intraday stand point. Pick the one you want to trade and trade it. Developing clear expectations and trading them will only give you losses when that expectation fails. With them playing out more then 70% there is no need to worry about the losses.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Quoting sigill
{quote} OK that makes sense. Regarding the other levels, probably I need to look at both (previous 50% and current 2/3) and make a discretionary judgment of the strength of rotation. For example, these match your two descriptions separately but not both of them. so conservatively I should wait to see both levels met. {image} (not looking at any structure here, just the bars themselves) Sorry to get hung up on details, maybe it's not important. nntr
You got it.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Quoting heispark
{quote} Thanks Octave for your useful input. I will learn more about harmonics. I agree NU is bullish even at 4H+Daily. I am looking for entry opportunity on Monday or Tuesday... As you said, it needs some pull-back first.
You are welcome Heispark, I am glad that I can help you a little.

Take care!
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Put the emphasis on the order flow you are looking to trade. There will always be longer term expectations above your expectations specially from an intraday stand point. Pick the one you want to trade and trade it. Developing clear expectations and trading them will only give you losses when that expectation fails. With them playing out more then 70% there is no need to worry about the losses.
learn more , earn more
Quoting Timwelch
Don't get me wrong, I'm not here at all to knock your strategy. What works for you, works for you. But, please go back to the beginning of this thread and catch up with where "WE" are. We are learning how to read price charts, without indicators. Everything on your chart, including that pattern you're talking about, is an indicator. (Bottom left of your screenshot clearly shows me you didn't draw that yourself) Again, no offense, but if you're not even drawing that pattern, you're not following what we are discussing here, and that's going to get...
Hi Tim,

Clearly, you didn't get my point, I was simply offering my help on a question, and I had to use Harmonic Pattern Formation to get on Heispark Level....Listen, I didn't have to draw the patterns to look smart, I am more of a Fundamental Trader, and I use Technical Analysis as an add-on.... In my book, Price Action is child's play and some times I use line chart to make decisions.... In case you don't know, I have been following Mr. Pip teaching for quite some time, and I have no intention to overstepping. I respect his dedication and passion for helping yall....
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
Quoting crixus
{quote} Interesting your take on this pair. I do not trade it but i had a look and got these observations... (Daily chart) I think the NSL on my screen capture is more of a rejection and signal a possible change of sentiment but the obstacles to the upside are very significant. We are in a range for sure and it is pretty large. {image}

Absolutely!

Whether you use Pure Price Action or indicators, you always going to get the same story as long as you have a certain level of knowledge on Market Structure and Harmonics. But, the reality is the market won't stop moving and at some point that range is going to be broken....By Wednesday, we will know for sure what this pair wants to do....That rejection, you mentioned, was at a key Fib Level based on the previous structure.....
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
Quoting devontrader
{quote} with every respect....im sure your method works.....we all been there...using indicators.....you have moving average=lagging.....zup..korharmonic indy for pattern?..repaints like other indys do.Thats why i decided to ditch indicators and go from lagging to leading....as in price action.I was kind enough to talk to mr pips about price action and learn his successful method.but i found it a lot of info in one go to learn so my friend for me and for you and others i asked if he would like to teach his method to help all.....so here we are.Take...
Hi Devontrader,

I have gone to that program before, and I have learned everything that I need to know about Price Action.... Trading is really Boring, and I had to pimp my chart to give myself a reason to observe the market....By the way, I am not a big fan of watching tick by tick, or bar by bar....I only trade High-Impact Risk Events and I don't mind reading a few posts here and there....so, before you say something else, I did Join the party a long time ago, and I have done my homework....
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
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