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  • #139,581
  • Mar 11, 2016 7:08am Mar 11, 2016 7:08am
GU : I think we are entering in interesting levels (from 1.434x to 1.443x/7x) to build a short position, we have nearly fully retraced the leg down triggered by camerons deal at last eu summit.
  • #139,582
  • Edited 8:47am Mar 11, 2016 7:20am | Edited 8:47am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, OIL is up and held the 37.40 handle and challenging the possible break UP which should indicate RISK OFF and strengthen DOLLAR/US EQUITIES (Stable). DAX is 300 points UP and recouped loss yesterday US Equities holding the 2000 handle yet: EU and GU still strong. Given the ECB cut and QE and BOE not raising rates no time soon along with strong US data these moves make no sense FA. Regardless if US raises rates or not. US Economy is stronger and % rate increase than previous time when we were trading EU at .0600/.0500.
I bet sisse answers u much better.

But the way I think about the FA: I think it still makes sense - I think FA does not tell you the exact price where it should be fundamentally. It more likely gives you some fundamentally rational ranges where price is gonna move on fundamental grounds - guess those ranges can be seen on mid term lvls we have or even more up TF. And I agree that given the rate differential - the price should be much much lower now under "normal situation" and it will eventually get there i guess - however I have no idea if the unwinding of carry trade in risk-off situations allows us to get down any time soon - because the Brexit, China, US elections are all pretty mid term events, which can let us levitating at these lvls for months making the same Monthly doji candles on risk-off like like the one we have from last month.

I even think FED next week does not change much: if dovish --- no hikes near term and dollar is gonna decline - choppy EU X if hawkish --- kills the rally in equities and down we go short/mid term =) risk-off!

Only that stupid OIL is something I dont get what happenes if we get the rally sisse talks about

However, I would agree we are on top of fundamentally sustainable range - and with rates going in opposite direction the fundamental range is going to get even lower - and the price is being held here by risk-off. Its like attacks of fever.... anytime it comes E/U shoots up but fades but still does not get the time to really make the mid term leg. But once the time comes - when the risk is clean - it would be very fast to catch up with rate differentials and macro.

So how to trade it?? hmmm, I hope for some major short term spike up on china/brexit to fade it - guess pretty risky but only chance to position on top again.

!!!!What Im most afraid while waiting to short E/U mid term is - that the global economy is not gonna make it given all the problems - manufacturing, china, brexit, elections, equities etc... and if US joins it with macros flopping....... I dont understand what would happen in this scenario --- guess just E/U spiking on all sides.... Dollar up via risk-off/Euro up via risk-off, Euro down via ECB, USD down via FED backing... it could get very nasty and the mid term trade down can be gone..... lol, unless the crises takes form of EU disintegration.... than we know which currency would win the battle.....
  • #139,583
  • Edited 8:02am Mar 11, 2016 7:41am | Edited 8:02am
Good insight into this chester123. I can see those scenarios. I accidentally deleted my post and didn't feel it had much valor any more to re-post it. I am frustrated with my positions and frustrated I didn't see what sisse did to prevent it.

I really like your take on the market and thought you put into it! Good stuff.

I am glad you are not in this at the moment as you would be dealing with my issue. I am in at .0930 and held this position on the spike down and ECB news to confirm it. I was in this position for a while as you may recall. However, I had a MAP .097X--> .0860-->.073X if we got the DOUBLE WHAMMY. We did; but, as sisse pointed out to me THE RISK is in play and I didn't see it in this way since OIL held the 37.40 handle is attempting to try and make new HIGHS.

My positions are bad. .0930 and .0860. I took the .0860 on the bounce (SINCE we made a LL at .0820) for a ride to .073X which is where my exit was. Now, I am more than in trouble if we don't return. FA we should not be this high in GU or EU in my opinion. The DOLLAR should not be weaker with all the US data out there, possible rate hike should be considered, EU rate cut and QE, Brexit, and ect......but, once again IMARICH1 gets the chair in the corner until he can behave and trade more efficiently and effectively.

sisse indicated my MAP wasn't bad; rather the SHARKS got me on this one.......stay tuned next week to see if IMARICH1 can escape from the JAWS of the Sharks......
  • #139,584
  • Mar 11, 2016 7:52am Mar 11, 2016 7:52am
Quoting IMARICH1
I am frustrated with my positions and frustrated I didn't see what sisse did to prevent it.
I believe at the moment it all happened, Sisse mentioned that he was ready to take the "reverso" if it was needed or something like that. I interpreted that as him being ready to change positions immediately if something fishy was going on and he was (of course) right. Damn he's good! Good luck in managing your position, I hope you'll manage to get out of it in an acceptible way.
  • #139,585
  • Edited 8:24am Mar 11, 2016 8:04am | Edited 8:24am
Quoting IMARICH1
Good insight into this chester123. I can see those scenarios. I accidentally deleted my post and didn't feel it had much valor any more to re-post it. I am frustrated with my positions and frustrated I didn't see what sisse did to prevent it. I really like your take on the market and thought you put into it! Good stuff. I am glad you are not in this at the moment as you would be dealing with my issue. I am in at .0930 and held this position on the spike down and ECB news to confirm it. I was in this position for a while as you may recall. However,...
yes, as ExForX says, sisse talked about the reverso. I took the reverso only on dax - enough adrenalin for me to trade ECB on one instrument, lol - DAX on the top (my only open position - just the timing is kind of annoying - guess equities gonna be stuck in the range on the highs till FED to see if SP500 gives extension and holds dax longer up.

anyway, here is a trick for the big events as you got cought on the wrong foot by ECB..... I told you I have no idea what gator does - dont have thousand hours to ge through that insane history ..... but something I realized from his posts and by observing..... if you wanna trade the knee-jerk reaction after big news (= first condition = there is some big reaction) make a fibbo rentrace of the reaction (of course you have to let it pan out first) as I have it in the chart and watch the middle area (not given by 61,8 and 38,2 but by 55,9 and 44,1).... if you wanna jump in..... you wait for the retrace to the colored area.... if you get closes under 44,1 or 50 or even 55,9 and the price exits the colored area in the direction you wanna trade - here it would be down - its good sign and you go ahead...... but the moment you see a full cross made by one ond only one candle on M1 frame never enter cuz its gonna go the other side most likely!!! Here you see perfect full cross and small retrace with closes above 55,9.

This this works most of the time. You can try it on any big events you have in history. Also works on huge impact news, which are on much bigger timeframes.

I mean... sisse saw the risk-off and EU spike on fundamental grounds via conference xxx this gator thing can show you there is something going on on technical grounds.

Conclusion: sisse just sees things before they happen!!!
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  • #139,586
  • Edited 8:38am Mar 11, 2016 8:26am | Edited 8:38am
One last example: the last NFP; this is arguable but the cross is there to a tick; but again here sisse talked about the zig-zag and the flows etc. and it happened. So there are different perspectives to see it but I use both when tracking the initial reactions of big events I dont use it on larger timeframes - cuz I dont know how plus I think you dont really need it if you wanna trade short/mid term swings and you have good FA combined with some TA - Fibbos instruments + previous important lvls + some fundamental lvls as I try to use mostly.

P.S.: funny thing is that I post here as if I was some good trader --- but if results should prove it... the oppsite is true really - it takes forever to learn and mostly DISCIPLINE oneself.
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  • #139,587
  • Mar 11, 2016 9:10am Mar 11, 2016 9:10am
Wow thanks Chester for the nice explanation about the fibo tool. I always had the feeling this was just another tool that sometimes works, sometimes doesn't. I guess it works better on news events or breakouts. I'll paper trade this for a while and see if I can incorporate it in my trading. Nice analysis.
  • #139,588
  • Mar 11, 2016 9:10am Mar 11, 2016 9:10am
chester123,

Good stuff. I appreciate you sharing this info! The part I struggle with is is the crossing or closing of the 1 min close candle. You could have a close on the 1 min candle under the 44.1 but then it may go to 50 and close or 55.9 and close and reverse. However, you could miss the trade if it closes under .44.1 and you wait to see if it reacts to other fibs from a TA. I guess its a matter of waiting and seeing how NY comes on at the 9:30 and 10am time. It could be a useful tool for me. Will look at it more. Thanks for sharing!

I am clueless how GU has risen this much with its BREXIT, RATES, Economy compared to US and possible rate hike for US. I don't a reason for DOLLAR getting beat up like this for now. I don't see the RISK OFF play right now with OIL holding, US EQUITIES holding, DAX Holding ect.....seems EU would be down along with GU. If I call it market Capitulation, then, it probably shows my ignorance that something more tangible in the markets are going on that I can't analyze correctly.

EXForX and you both are correct. sisse saw a possible reversal. By the time I saw his post and price, it was too late and have to sit tight again. I really thought with data and LL we were headed to .073X at the very least.....BIG BOYS already had MAP that I did not have in my tool belt.
  • #139,589
  • Mar 11, 2016 9:45am Mar 11, 2016 9:45am
Quoting IMARICH1
I am clueless how GU has risen this much with its BREXIT, RATES, Economy compared to US and possible rate hike for US. I don't a reason for DOLLAR getting beat up like this for now. I don't see the RISK OFF play right now with OIL holding, US EQUITIES holding, DAX Holding ect.....seems EU would be down along with GU. If I call it market Capitulation, then, it probably shows my ignorance that something more tangible in the markets are going on that I can't analyze correctly. EXForX and you both are correct. sisse saw a possible reversal. By the time...
sometimes the market is going to do what its going to do... it doesn't care about you... thats how I sleep at night ... and I softly cry so no one hears... man I get frustrated just like you at times but I think the reason GU is up is big institutional traders are heavily net short on pound and with all this commotion its easier or rather financially smarter to just take profit... and the little boys jumping too late are getting caught.... so all that adds to this momentum but you have to be happy when the market does this because you get another chance to jump in.. I just think you might suffer from hold your trades for too long syndrome.. Im still recovering from that but at least if I'm ahead... I trail either manually or mentally the lower TF trends with a stoploss or worse case breakeven.... but letting a winner come back on you into a loss unless your trading higher TF and have your risk reward planned is too much of a drain psychologically... but takes this all into context with what kind of trader you was to be scalper ..intraday... or swing trader.... mixing up the strategies with bad r:r can leave you crying softly in a dark corner...
  • #139,590
  • Mar 11, 2016 9:55am Mar 11, 2016 9:55am
maybe someone could correct me but it could be just money coming out of us and flowing into other instruments..... hence if people are buying stocks you have to sell dollars to buy it... etc...
  • #139,591
  • Mar 11, 2016 9:58am Mar 11, 2016 9:58am
Quoting chester123
{quote} I bet sisse answers u much better. But the way I think about the FA: I think it still makes sense ....
@ Chester
Thanks Chester, nice easy to understand posts as always and your clear explanations bode well for future success with your trading. You also appear to grasp more than most the fundamentals behind sisse's undeniably expert (but not always so easy to comprehend) posts, and I appreciate your inputs. Through your posts, IMARICH1 & others & of course sisse's I would be hopeful & very happy to even reach your level of understanding!

& @ IMARICH1
Don't beat yourself up so much about your recent trades (and I, as do we all appreciate how much they HURT! ), but just remember you are not the only one caught with their pants down after Draghi yesterday (and I would include myself in that 99% group too) ..so I hope you can hold tight and things turn for you. But when in doubt, and this includes being not too confident about one's trading prowess or market understanding ...keep to VERY low leverage and trade sizes so that you have every chance of weathering such storms while also gaining valuable experience. Don't try to make back losses by increasing lot sizes but keep them small so that losses remain as a quite acceptable cost of education which one would expect to pay in any other walk of life ...ie be prepared to pay for your education before you expect to earn the big bucks on graduation! ..& while sisse remains open to sharing his knowledge here then we all have every chance of graduating!

Also I'd add, that trying to understand and emulate such a trader as sisse is for most of us an almost insurmountable task, and in the meantime we shouldn't beat ourselves up constantly each time we fail to grasp his "modus operandi", and be content to trade according to our own comprehension & potential (while also of course dining at the table of sisse's generous wisdom! ..long may it last! )

& @ sisse
Big Thanks!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #139,592
  • Edited 10:43am Mar 11, 2016 10:10am | Edited 10:43am
Quoting ExForX
Wow thanks Chester for the nice explanation about the fibo tool. I always had the feeling this was just another tool that sometimes works, sometimes doesn't. I guess it works better on news events or breakouts. I'll paper trade this for a while and see if I can incorporate it in my trading. Nice analysis.
just to clarify - but u definitely know this - normal fibos are used to look for resistences/supports and are not used this way. normal fibbo retracements dont have the 2 lvls, which are next to the 50 lvl. actually, fibbos are good. Ive been recently experimenting with the elipsis and the eliptical maps. It seems to me to be the strogest technical instrument overall when used with horizontal lvls and some proper FA. Lol, maybe one day I make money


Quoting IMARICH1
chester123, Good stuff. I appreciate you sharing this info! The part I struggle with is is the crossing or closing of the 1 min close candle. You could have a close on the 1 min candle under the 44.1 but then it may go to 50 and close or 55.9 and close and reverse. However, you could miss the trade if it closes under .44.1 and you wait to see if it reacts to other fibs from a TA. I guess its a matter of waiting and seeing how NY comes on at the 9:30 and 10am time. It could be a useful tool for me. Will look at it more. Thanks for sharing!...
Well, I understand what you mean. Its always problematic. I dont use it as the only-trade-trigger. Basically Im just looking if the ONE candle cross occurs and if yes I stay sideline or trade reverso. If its in the colored area I dont enter. And yes it can be hoovering in the middle but than you can look at M5/M15 and if you see it closing under 44,1 with a wick usually touching the 50 lvl, you would enter.

But take your time and youll see how it works for you. As I say for me its more just a indicative method, which tells me whats gonna happen because the PA in the middle is absolutely important. If the price goes to the middle and crossess it but with more than 1 candle - the trend is weak and its goona come back very soon to the middle part!!! Thats also very important!!! Thats why you need the 1 candle cross because with 1 candle cross the price can fly and does not get taken back to the middle!!

And the dollar weakness today? I have no idea. Maybe sisse has a clue.

On G/U: I have not entered yet as I was waiting for the right timing next week. Now I see its good I staied away. I have only that DAX trade from ECB, which Im gonna try to manage till FED. On rest Ill just observe till FED cuz thats the last huge part of the puzzle.

Quoting CommercialB
{quote} @ Chester Thanks Chester, nice easy to understand posts as always and your clear explanations bode well for future success with your trading. You also appear to grasp more than most the fundamentals behind sisse's undeniably expert (but not always so easy to comprehend) posts, and I appreciate your inputs. Through your posts, IMARICH1 & others & of course sisse's I would be hopeful & very happy to even reach your level of understanding! & @ IMARICH1 Don't beat yourself up so much about your recent trades (and I, as do we all appreciate how much they HURT! ), but just remember you are not the only one caught with their pants down after Draghi yesterday (and I would include myself in that 99% group too) ..so I hope you can hold tight and things turn for you. But when in doubt, and this includes being not too confident about one's trading prowess or market understanding ...keep to VERY low leverage and trade sizes so that you have every chance of weathering such storms while also gaining valuable experience. Don't try to make back losses by increasing lot sizes but keep them small so that losses remain as a quite acceptable cost of education which one would expect to pay in any other walk of life ...ie be prepared to pay for your education before you expect to earn the big bucks on graduation! ..& while sisse remains open to sharing his knowledge here then we all have every chance of graduating! Also I'd add, that trying to understand and emulate such a trader as sisse is for most of us an almost insurmountable task, and in the meantime we shouldn't beat ourselves up constantly each time we fail to grasp his "modus operandi", and be content to trade according to our own comprehension & potential (while also of course dining at the table of sisse's generous wisdom! ..long may it last! ) & @ sisse Big Thanks!
thak you commercial. actually I was stunned when sisse wrote "Support, Resistance, breaks and rejections in price moving in 'waves' extending or shrinking a trading range. Basic concept like a swing high/low, fading a levels, taking a break is the only things in in my arsenal." I mean thats kind of what I imagined.... its someone using it simple technically but with a lot of experience and I bet the biggest weapon he has is his macro/FA insight and psychology - unfortunatelly thats something well have to "live through" to get cuz its pretty much based on experience but we need someone to guide the way and its him!!! E.g. thats why his posts are so important = they put everything into context!

And I completely share the same view, Imarich, as commericalB!! Dont beat yourself up, dont regret trades, try to have the most emotion-free attitude governed just by rationality, learn from the trades and one day youll win. At least thats what I say to myself --- ehm, so wonder if its gonna work one day, lol, not so good so far
  • #139,593
  • Mar 11, 2016 11:03am Mar 11, 2016 11:03am
Quoting sisse
US equities starting to lose foot at the highs and they wont be able to push any further beyond the current highs. ... Final update of the ECB day: --> Changing short term outlook in US equities from Buy to Neutral Markets look ready to hold on the fumes of ECB until tomorrow. Flat in US equities and actively looking for positioning for the FED - > 1928.xx in S&P {quote} ...not yet ... FED still in play ...1920/5 naked for a test until then... Dollar entering in strong support for next week FED. Definitively YEN (UJ) crumbs away from triggering...

the moves in equities have been confusing to say the least...S&P is nearly at 2020, but ur saying 1920/5 is naked for a test, thats a 100 handles drop in 2 days...is 1960 and 1920 still naked for the test or will it need a fed rate hike to push equities back down?
  • #139,594
  • Mar 11, 2016 11:09am Mar 11, 2016 11:09am
I would like to contribute to this discussion through another view. Keep it simple! As some/most/few of us believe that FA is already incorporated in AP through anticipation/speculation/big players/etc., I think the most important is to follow your Daily Trend: bullish or bearish regardless the data/news unless data/news come against what was already expected/anticipated. For instance, the daily trend for EU was bullish prior to ECB bazooka, which was anticipated. Therefore the news confirmed what was anticipated and continued/maintained the bullish daily trend (except the 1-2 minute of bearish as a reaction to the news).
My point is to use FA to confirm or to reverse TA based on daily trend. What do you think? I'm really newbie in forex!
  • #139,595
  • Edited 11:27am Mar 11, 2016 11:24am | Edited 11:27am
Quoting monkey@forex
{quote} the moves in equities have been confusing to say the least...S&P is nearly at 2020, but ur saying 1920/5 is naked for a test, thats a 100 handles drop in 2 days...is 1960 and 1920 still naked for the test or will it need a fed rate hike to push equities back down?
dunno that but in my eyes, its getting more and more easy to picture a rate hike next Wednesday : we got an important recovery on equities & oil, the sea is as smooth as a millpond now, will it be the same the 15th of June a couple of days before the brexit referendum ? Hiking now looks much easier. We got a surprise one year ago maybe another one on Wednesday.

@ IMARICH1 : DXY has tested important support @ 95.8x today
  • #139,596
  • Mar 11, 2016 12:41pm Mar 11, 2016 12:41pm
roobi, CommericalB, chester123,

Thanks for your comments and support. I am glad we all share in the frustration at times. My hope is the more I show what not to do the more we learn what to do. I had a good MAP, NEWS was totally in my favor-DOUBLE WHAMMEY from ECB and NFP was overshoot to raise the possibility of cont. rate hike. Then, OIL doesn't sink and holds 37.40 and challenges the highs, EQUITIES in EU rebound and US holds with gains. Gold goes down and EU and GU UP. Doesn't add up.

chester123,

Thanks again for sharing this info. I am going to look at it more closely. It may be good to use especially WITH THE TREND.

sisse will have to explain this; but, I think what he indicated to me was this was the BIG SHARKS positioning for the FED. So, I didn't misread it exactly. The RISK has been off since yesterday IMO. But, that could be my ignorance.

Replicant,

This is what I have been watching ALL DAY as it has tested it a few times. Earlier in the LONDON session and NY. It has held. sisse referred to DXY having good support as well. I wonder what will happen if market reverses itself again and takes out alot of STOPS or soft hands? Could this move plow thru to .0800 handle pre-NFP. For obvious reason, I would like another re-test here.

We didn't make a new HIGH today and nothing has changed. Same market yesterday as today IMO. No new news. Never made the .1280/60 HIGH-at least not yet. I would believe not making a HH and closing under .1150 would indicate the EU is coughing with some DOLLAR strength around the corner.

I like this thread because there is alot of learning and support! I wish there was a way for some of us to LEARN and not clog up the board (ME PERSONALLY) as sisse indicated it discouraged better traders not to post due to our neediness to learn!
  • #139,597
  • Mar 11, 2016 12:56pm Mar 11, 2016 12:56pm
Quoting IMARICH1
roobi, CommericalB, chester123, Thanks for your comments and support. I am glad we all share in the frustration at times. My hope is the more I show what not to do the more we learn what to do. I had a good MAP, NEWS was totally in my favor-DOUBLE WHAMMEY from ECB and NFP was overshoot to raise the possibility of cont. rate hike. Then, OIL doesn't sink and holds 37.40 and challenges the highs, EQUITIES in EU rebound and US holds with gains. Gold goes down and EU and GU UP. Doesn't add up. chester123, Thanks again for sharing this info. I am going...
dont think you clog up this thread
  • #139,598
  • Mar 11, 2016 3:59pm Mar 11, 2016 3:59pm
Quoting IMARICH1
I like this thread because there is alot of learning and support! I wish there was a way for some of us to LEARN and not clog up the board (ME PERSONALLY) as sisse indicated it discouraged better traders not to post due to our neediness to learn!
Mmmm ...I remember that post but don't believe it was meant in such a negative way. He just found that you were still confusing short/medium/long term swings and trying to trade all at the same time with the wrong timeframe horizons (or as he would say catching a big fish with a small boat & vice versa), even after he'd tried explaining it a few times already, but I think you now understand this better as do a lot of others after yours and sisse's posts. Also I remember sisse having a saying about the person NOT asking the question being the dumber one ..or something like that. Anyway I second mayafx above that I certainly don't find that you clog up the thread and re-iterate as others have done before that many people benefit from your discourses both with sisse and the other posters here so keep it up I say.
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #139,599
  • Mar 12, 2016 12:06am Mar 12, 2016 12:06am
wowowo it's getting crowded in here

So, Draghi dropped the bazooka, but Germans said "no more". Looks like Draghi "accidentally" forgot that part of the speech and the blonde woman kindly reminded him to read the script (21:20 on the video => "we don't anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further".

Inserted Video


I think we witnessed major euro short base unwinding position on that line. Combined with the risk-off momentum we saw euro spike to 1.12

Does it mean euro will rise to new highs? I'm not sure about that.

The less resistance path is still on the downside (rate differential, QE and brexit i would add) and this can be clearly seen on a weekly chart: down legs are way more smooth and effortless than up legs. Big money love to exploit this until it lasts.

On the practical side, holding shorts on gold as by previous posts and nothing new. Looking to fade euro in the next days/week.

Good weekend everyone.
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  • #139,600
  • Mar 12, 2016 6:52am Mar 12, 2016 6:52am
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} . Anyway I second mayafx above that I certainly don't find that you clog up the thread and re-iterate as others have done before that many people benefit from your discourses both with sisse and the other posters here so keep it up I say.
Agree. Gotten a lot out of it.
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