GU : I think we are entering in interesting levels (from 1.434x to 1.443x/7x) to build a short position, we have nearly fully retraced the leg down triggered by camerons deal at last eu summit.
The Really Useless Thread
- #139,582
- Edited 10:47am Mar 11, 2016 9:20am | Edited 10:47am
- Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Trader | 717 Posts
sisse, OIL is up and held the 37.40 handle and challenging the possible break UP which should indicate RISK OFF and strengthen DOLLAR/US EQUITIES (Stable). DAX is 300 points UP and recouped loss yesterday US Equities holding the 2000 handle yet: EU and GU still strong. Given the ECB cut and QE and BOE not raising rates no time soon along with strong US data these moves make no sense FA. Regardless if US raises rates or not. US Economy is stronger and % rate increase than previous time when we were trading EU at .0600/.0500.
But the way I think about the FA: I think it still makes sense - I think FA does not tell you the exact price where it should be fundamentally. It more likely gives you some fundamentally rational ranges where price is gonna move on fundamental grounds - guess those ranges can be seen on mid term lvls we have or even more up TF. And I agree that given the rate differential - the price should be much much lower now under "normal situation" and it will eventually get there i guess - however I have no idea if the unwinding of carry trade in risk-off situations allows us to get down any time soon - because the Brexit, China, US elections are all pretty mid term events, which can let us levitating at these lvls for months making the same Monthly doji candles on risk-off like like the one we have from last month.
I even think FED next week does not change much: if dovish --- no hikes near term and dollar is gonna decline - choppy EU X if hawkish --- kills the rally in equities and down we go short/mid term =) risk-off!
Only that stupid OIL is something I dont get what happenes if we get the rally sisse talks about
However, I would agree we are on top of fundamentally sustainable range - and with rates going in opposite direction the fundamental range is going to get even lower - and the price is being held here by risk-off. Its like attacks of fever.... anytime it comes E/U shoots up but fades but still does not get the time to really make the mid term leg. But once the time comes - when the risk is clean - it would be very fast to catch up with rate differentials and macro.
So how to trade it?? hmmm, I hope for some major short term spike up on china/brexit to fade it - guess pretty risky but only chance to position on top again.
!!!!What Im most afraid while waiting to short E/U mid term is - that the global economy is not gonna make it given all the problems - manufacturing, china, brexit, elections, equities etc... and if US joins it with macros flopping....... I dont understand what would happen in this scenario --- guess just E/U spiking on all sides.... Dollar up via risk-off/Euro up via risk-off, Euro down via ECB, USD down via FED backing... it could get very nasty and the mid term trade down can be gone..... lol, unless the crises takes form of EU disintegration.... than we know which currency would win the battle.....
- #139,583
- Edited 10:02am Mar 11, 2016 9:41am | Edited 10:02am
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,718 Posts
- #139,584
- Mar 11, 2016 9:52am Mar 11, 2016 9:52am
- | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Аdministrator | 1,215 Posts
I am frustrated with my positions and frustrated I didn't see what sisse did to prevent it.
Damn he's good! Good luck in managing your position, I hope you'll manage to get out of it in an acceptible way.
- #139,585
- Edited 10:24am Mar 11, 2016 10:04am | Edited 10:24am
- Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Trader | 717 Posts
Good insight into this chester123. I can see those scenarios. I accidentally deleted my post and didn't feel it had much valor any more to re-post it. I am frustrated with my positions and frustrated I didn't see what sisse did to prevent it. I really like your take on the market and thought you put into it! Good stuff. I am glad you are not in this at the moment as you would be dealing with my issue. I am in at .0930 and held this position on the spike down and ECB news to confirm it. I was in this position for a while as you may recall. However,...
anyway, here is a trick for the big events as you got cought on the wrong foot by ECB..... I told you I have no idea what gator does - dont have thousand hours to ge through that insane history
..... but something I realized from his posts and by observing..... if you wanna trade the knee-jerk reaction after big news (= first condition = there is some big reaction) make a fibbo rentrace of the reaction (of course you have to let it pan out first) as I have it in the chart and watch the middle area (not given by 61,8 and 38,2 but by 55,9 and 44,1).... if you wanna jump in..... you wait for the retrace to the colored area.... if you get closes under 44,1 or 50 or even 55,9 and the price exits the colored area in the direction you wanna trade - here it would be down - its good sign and you go ahead...... but the moment you see a full cross made by one ond only one candle on M1 frame never enter cuz its gonna go the other side most likely!!! Here you see perfect full cross and small retrace with closes above 55,9.This this works most of the time. You can try it on any big events you have in history. Also works on huge impact news, which are on much bigger timeframes.
I mean... sisse saw the risk-off and EU spike on fundamental grounds via conference xxx this gator thing can show you there is something going on on technical grounds.
Conclusion: sisse just sees things before they happen!!!
- #139,586
- Edited 10:38am Mar 11, 2016 10:26am | Edited 10:38am
- Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Trader | 717 Posts
One last example: the last NFP; this is arguable but the cross is there to a tick; but again here sisse talked about the zig-zag and the flows etc. and it happened. So there are different perspectives to see it but I use both when tracking the initial reactions of big events I dont use it on larger timeframes - cuz I dont know how plus I think you dont really need it if you wanna trade short/mid term swings and you have good FA combined with some TA - Fibbos instruments + previous important lvls + some fundamental lvls as I try to use mostly.
P.S.: funny thing is that I post here as if I was some good trader --- but if results should prove it... the oppsite is true really
- it takes forever to learn and mostly DISCIPLINE oneself.
I dont use it on larger timeframes - cuz I dont know how plus I think you dont really need it if you wanna trade short/mid term swings and you have good FA combined with some TA - Fibbos instruments + previous important lvls + some fundamental lvls as I try to use mostly.P.S.: funny thing is that I post here as if I was some good trader --- but if results should prove it... the oppsite is true really
- it takes forever to learn and mostly DISCIPLINE oneself.
- #139,587
- Mar 11, 2016 11:10am Mar 11, 2016 11:10am
- | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Аdministrator | 1,215 Posts
{quote} I bet sisse answers u much better. But the way I think about the FA: I think it still makes sense ....
Thanks Chester, nice easy to understand posts as always and your clear explanations bode well for future success with your trading. You also appear to grasp more than most the fundamentals behind sisse's undeniably expert (but not always so easy to comprehend) posts, and I appreciate your inputs. Through your posts, IMARICH1 & others & of course sisse's I would be hopeful & very happy to even reach your level of understanding!
& @ IMARICH1
Don't beat yourself up so much about your recent trades (and I, as do we all appreciate how much they HURT!
), but just remember you are not the only one caught with their pants down after Draghi yesterday (and I would include myself in that 99% group too) ..so I hope you can hold tight and things turn for you. But when in doubt, and this includes being not too confident about one's trading prowess or market understanding ...keep to VERY low leverage and trade sizes so that you have every chance of weathering such storms while also gaining valuable experience. Don't try to make back losses by increasing lot sizes but keep them small so that losses remain as a quite acceptable cost of education which one would expect to pay in any other walk of life ...ie be prepared to pay for your education before you expect to earn the big bucks on graduation! ..& while sisse remains open to sharing his knowledge here then we all have every chance of graduating! Also I'd add, that trying to understand and emulate such a trader as sisse is for most of us an almost insurmountable task, and in the meantime we shouldn't beat ourselves up constantly each time we fail to grasp his "modus operandi", and be content to trade according to our own comprehension & potential (while also of course dining at the table of sisse's generous wisdom! ..long may it last!
)& @ sisse
Big Thanks!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
- #139,592
- Edited 12:43pm Mar 11, 2016 12:10pm | Edited 12:43pm
- Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Trader | 717 Posts
Wow thanks Chester for the nice explanation about the fibo tool. I always had the feeling this was just another tool that sometimes works, sometimes doesn't. I guess it works better on news events or breakouts. I'll paper trade this for a while and see if I can incorporate it in my trading. Nice analysis.
chester123, Good stuff. I appreciate you sharing this info! The part I struggle with is is the crossing or closing of the 1 min close candle. You could have a close on the 1 min candle under the 44.1 but then it may go to 50 and close or 55.9 and close and reverse. However, you could miss the trade if it closes under .44.1 and you wait to see if it reacts to other fibs from a TA. I guess its a matter of waiting and seeing how NY comes on at the 9:30 and 10am time. It could be a useful tool for me. Will look at it more. Thanks for sharing!...
But take your time and youll see how it works for you. As I say for me its more just a indicative method, which tells me whats gonna happen because the PA in the middle is absolutely important. If the price goes to the middle and crossess it but with more than 1 candle - the trend is weak and its goona come back very soon to the middle part!!! Thats also very important!!! Thats why you need the 1 candle cross because with 1 candle cross the price can fly and does not get taken back to the middle!!
And the dollar weakness today? I have no idea. Maybe sisse has a clue.
On G/U: I have not entered yet as I was waiting for the right timing next week. Now I see its good I staied away. I have only that DAX trade from ECB, which Im gonna try to manage till FED. On rest Ill just observe till FED cuz thats the last huge part of the puzzle.
{quote} @ Chester Thanks Chester, nice easy to understand posts as always and your clear explanations bode well for future success with your trading. You also appear to grasp more than most the fundamentals behind sisse's undeniably expert (but not always so easy to comprehend) posts, and I appreciate your inputs. Through your posts, IMARICH1 & others & of course sisse's I would be hopeful & very happy to even reach your level of understanding! & @ IMARICH1 Don't beat yourself up so much about your recent trades (and I, as do we all appreciate how much they HURT!
And I completely share the same view, Imarich, as commericalB!! Dont beat yourself up, dont regret trades, try to have the most emotion-free attitude governed just by rationality, learn from the trades and one day youll win. At least thats what I say to myself --- ehm, so wonder if its gonna work one day, lol, not so good so far
- #139,596
- Mar 11, 2016 2:41pm Mar 11, 2016 2:41pm
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,718 Posts
roobi, CommericalB, chester123,
Thanks for your comments and support. I am glad we all share in the frustration at times. My hope is the more I show what not to do the more we learn what to do. I had a good MAP, NEWS was totally in my favor-DOUBLE WHAMMEY from ECB and NFP was overshoot to raise the possibility of cont. rate hike. Then, OIL doesn't sink and holds 37.40 and challenges the highs, EQUITIES in EU rebound and US holds with gains. Gold goes down and EU and GU UP. Doesn't add up.
chester123,
Thanks again for sharing this info. I am going to look at it more closely. It may be good to use especially WITH THE TREND.
sisse will have to explain this; but, I think what he indicated to me was this was the BIG SHARKS positioning for the FED. So, I didn't misread it exactly. The RISK has been off since yesterday IMO. But, that could be my ignorance.
Replicant,
This is what I have been watching ALL DAY as it has tested it a few times. Earlier in the LONDON session and NY. It has held. sisse referred to DXY having good support as well. I wonder what will happen if market reverses itself again and takes out alot of STOPS or soft hands? Could this move plow thru to .0800 handle pre-NFP. For obvious reason, I would like another re-test here.
We didn't make a new HIGH today and nothing has changed. Same market yesterday as today IMO. No new news. Never made the .1280/60 HIGH-at least not yet. I would believe not making a HH and closing under .1150 would indicate the EU is coughing with some DOLLAR strength around the corner.
I like this thread because there is alot of learning and support! I wish there was a way for some of us to LEARN and not clog up the board (ME PERSONALLY) as sisse indicated it discouraged better traders not to post due to our neediness to learn!
Thanks for your comments and support. I am glad we all share in the frustration at times. My hope is the more I show what not to do the more we learn what to do. I had a good MAP, NEWS was totally in my favor-DOUBLE WHAMMEY from ECB and NFP was overshoot to raise the possibility of cont. rate hike. Then, OIL doesn't sink and holds 37.40 and challenges the highs, EQUITIES in EU rebound and US holds with gains. Gold goes down and EU and GU UP. Doesn't add up.
chester123,
Thanks again for sharing this info. I am going to look at it more closely. It may be good to use especially WITH THE TREND.
sisse will have to explain this; but, I think what he indicated to me was this was the BIG SHARKS positioning for the FED. So, I didn't misread it exactly. The RISK has been off since yesterday IMO. But, that could be my ignorance.
Replicant,
This is what I have been watching ALL DAY as it has tested it a few times. Earlier in the LONDON session and NY. It has held. sisse referred to DXY having good support as well. I wonder what will happen if market reverses itself again and takes out alot of STOPS or soft hands? Could this move plow thru to .0800 handle pre-NFP. For obvious reason, I would like another re-test here.
We didn't make a new HIGH today and nothing has changed. Same market yesterday as today IMO. No new news. Never made the .1280/60 HIGH-at least not yet. I would believe not making a HH and closing under .1150 would indicate the EU is coughing with some DOLLAR strength around the corner.
I like this thread because there is alot of learning and support! I wish there was a way for some of us to LEARN and not clog up the board (ME PERSONALLY) as sisse indicated it discouraged better traders not to post due to our neediness to learn!
I like this thread because there is alot of learning and support! I wish there was a way for some of us to LEARN and not clog up the board (ME PERSONALLY) as sisse indicated it discouraged better traders not to post due to our neediness to learn!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
- #139,599
- Mar 12, 2016 2:06am Mar 12, 2016 2:06am
wowowo it's getting crowded in here
So, Draghi dropped the bazooka, but Germans said "no more". Looks like Draghi "accidentally" forgot that part of the speech and the blonde woman kindly reminded him to read the script (21:20 on the video => "we don't anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further".
I think we witnessed major euro short base unwinding position on that line. Combined with the risk-off momentum we saw euro spike to 1.12
Does it mean euro will rise to new highs? I'm not sure about that.
The less resistance path is still on the downside (rate differential, QE and brexit i would add) and this can be clearly seen on a weekly chart: down legs are way more smooth and effortless than up legs. Big money love to exploit this until it lasts.
On the practical side, holding shorts on gold as by previous posts and nothing new. Looking to fade euro in the next days/week.
Good weekend everyone.
So, Draghi dropped the bazooka, but Germans said "no more". Looks like Draghi "accidentally" forgot that part of the speech and the blonde woman kindly reminded him to read the script (21:20 on the video => "we don't anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further".
Inserted Video
I think we witnessed major euro short base unwinding position on that line. Combined with the risk-off momentum we saw euro spike to 1.12
Does it mean euro will rise to new highs? I'm not sure about that.
The less resistance path is still on the downside (rate differential, QE and brexit i would add) and this can be clearly seen on a weekly chart: down legs are way more smooth and effortless than up legs. Big money love to exploit this until it lasts.
On the practical side, holding shorts on gold as by previous posts and nothing new. Looking to fade euro in the next days/week.
Good weekend everyone.
- #139,600
- Mar 12, 2016 8:52am Mar 12, 2016 8:52am
- Joined Jun 2015 | Status: Quo | 1,587 Posts
{quote} . Anyway I second mayafx above that I certainly don't find that you clog up the thread and re-iterate as others have done before that many people benefit from your discourses both with sisse and the other posters here so keep it up I say.