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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #20,441
  • Mar 10, 2016 12:16am Mar 10, 2016 12:16am
Today is Thursday and Thursday's are the famous roller coaster (reversal) days. Add the Draghi on Roller Coaster (reversal) day and we should have some major volatility today. Whether it shoots up and continues up or tanks and then does a reversal remains to be seen. Bad news out of Draghi may see us fall off a cliff today with no reversal but I doubt Draghi would do such a thing although we tanked after his last speech this quarter.
Trade only what you can afford to lose this week and next week as options expire next Friday and Draghi speaking this week.
  • #20,442
  • Mar 10, 2016 1:14am Mar 10, 2016 1:14am
Quoting stylinex
Today is Thursday and Thursday's are the famous roller coaster (reversal) days. Add the Draghi on Roller Coaster (reversal) day and we should have some major volatility today. Whether it shoots up and continues up or tanks and then does a reversal remains to be seen. Bad news out of Draghi may see us fall off a cliff today with no reversal but I doubt Draghi would do such a thing although we tanked after his last speech this quarter. Trade only what you can afford to lose this week and next week as options expire next Friday and Draghi speaking...
Agree, if Draghi fails to provide further stimulus, I expect a drop in the Dax, and EURUSD should break 200sma on Daily, beyond 1.1020s.

I see some support on 1H 200sma, which has held for past few days (at 9692pts currently). Below that, if Draghi fails to deliver, who knows, maybe back to down to 9600-9500 range

To the upside, I can see us potentially getting to Daily 7sma, at 9774pts. If the Bulls come out to play ahead of Draghi speech, eg buying the rumour, who know's maybe even beyond 9850pts.

I'm long one mini at 9723pts, if it get's in profit, I may put a SL at B/E and try and ride it beyond 9800pts.

Good luck!
  • #20,443
  • Mar 10, 2016 1:23am Mar 10, 2016 1:23am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Agree, if Draghi fails to provide further stimulus, I expect a drop in the Dax, and EURUSD should break 200sma on Daily, beyond 1.1020s. I see some support on 1H 200sma, which has held for past few days (at 9692pts currently). Below that, if Draghi fails to deliver, who knows, maybe back to down to 9600-9500 range To the upside, I can see us potentially getting to Daily 7sma, at 9774pts. If the Bulls come out to play ahead of Draghi speech, eg buying the rumour, who know's maybe even beyond 9850pts. I'm long one mini at 9723pts, if it get's...
Forgot to mention, I thnk Draghi has a dilemma of cutting deposit rates further, as this can weaken Banking sector profitability, and he won't want to weaken the Bank's profitability as it can then become a different problem for the ECB.

I might cut this trade of a loss.
  • #20,444
  • Mar 10, 2016 1:41am Mar 10, 2016 1:41am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Forgot to mention, I thnk Draghi has a dilemma of cutting deposit rates further, as this can weaken Banking sector profitability, and he won't want to weaken the Bank's profitability as it can then become a different problem for the ECB. I might cut this trade of a loss.
Bugger it, holding the trade. Let's see, could be buy the rumour today and sell the fact later.
  • #20,445
  • Mar 10, 2016 2:30am Mar 10, 2016 2:30am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Agree, if Draghi fails to provide further stimulus, I expect a drop in the Dax, and EURUSD should break 200sma on Daily, beyond 1.1020s. I see some support on 1H 200sma, which has held for past few days (at 9692pts currently). Below that, if Draghi fails to deliver, who knows, maybe back to down to 9600-9500 range To the upside, I can see us potentially getting to Daily 7sma, at 9774pts. If the Bulls come out to play ahead of Draghi speech, eg buying the rumour, who know's maybe even beyond 9850pts. I'm long one mini at 9723pts, if it get's...
First small reversal took place already. Drop to 9680 and then climb back up to 9750
  • #20,446
  • Mar 10, 2016 2:44am Mar 10, 2016 2:44am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} First small reversal took place already. Drop to 9680 and then climb back up to 9750
Yep, I bought some leverage around 9680, and cleared my first trade with some of those entries for breakeven. Left one mini to run, and just banked it for 80pts.

Could be done for the day now
  • #20,447
  • Mar 10, 2016 2:58am Mar 10, 2016 2:58am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Yep, I bought some leverage around 9680, and cleared my first trade with some of those entries for breakeven. Left one mini to run, and just banked it for 80pts. Could be done for the day now
Nice I got caught just now when it dropped from 9740 to 9705. Stuck with a loss now. Hope it recovers for me to exit
  • #20,448
  • Mar 10, 2016 3:04am Mar 10, 2016 3:04am
Sticking it out because I think it will go back up again. My guess is this was some tree shaking to shake them loose apples. Hopefully I am not wrong
  • #20,449
  • Mar 10, 2016 5:13am Mar 10, 2016 5:13am
Same here stylinex, sticking to long !
Enter Signature
  • #20,450
  • Mar 10, 2016 5:14am Mar 10, 2016 5:14am
Super Mario is coming no worries........hopefully
Enter Signature
  • #20,451
  • Mar 10, 2016 5:15am Mar 10, 2016 5:15am
can hedge it out with a spread trade, no worries.
Enter Signature
  • #20,452
  • Mar 10, 2016 5:24am Mar 10, 2016 5:24am
And UP we go!!! For now...
  • #20,453
  • Mar 10, 2016 5:26am Mar 10, 2016 5:26am
Draghi's orations has effected ever so often bigger price movements at fxmarkets.
I like these events, ...but today I'm out of the market and stay on the sideline with the slogen: "Next chance will coming up".
Have a nice day!
I wish you green pips.
FXcube
  • #20,454
  • Mar 10, 2016 5:28am Mar 10, 2016 5:28am
If this goes up with the min bid rate data, then R1 @ 810, or around there, could well be an area to short, and if it is then it could easily come down as hard as yesterday's did from the 840 level. Just one to watch that's all.
  • #20,455
  • Mar 10, 2016 5:40am Mar 10, 2016 5:40am
Quoting johninthai
Same here stylinex, sticking to long !
I made a stupid mistake and sold half at a loss. Should have held on longer. The other half is up now from average cost of 9736.75
  • #20,456
  • Mar 10, 2016 5:44am Mar 10, 2016 5:44am
Short dax 9753.5. Tight tp /sl
Tp 9738.5. I'm overall long though
  • #20,457
  • Mar 10, 2016 5:56am Mar 10, 2016 5:56am
Quoting lakhan
Short dax 9753.5. Tight tp /sl Tp 9738.5. I'm overall long though
Closed for a measly +10
Long dax 9743.5
  • #20,458
  • Mar 10, 2016 6:04am Mar 10, 2016 6:04am
Running to 9800 now
  • #20,459
  • Mar 10, 2016 6:15am Mar 10, 2016 6:15am
Quoting lakhan
{quote} Closed for a measly +10 Long dax 9743.5
Closed 9800. Coffee till draghi
  • #20,460
  • Mar 10, 2016 6:29am Mar 10, 2016 6:29am
Quoting cat
If this goes up with the min bid rate data, then R1 @ 810, or around there, could well be an area to short, and if it is then it could easily come down as hard as yesterday's did from the 840 level. Just one to watch that's all.
Hmmmm... 9900 is equally possible before Draghi goes online too! I'm sitting out at these levels
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