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Top-Down Analysis

  • #341
  • Mar 8, 2016 1:46pm Mar 8, 2016 1:46pm
daily rolling ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp USD (DFB).png Size: 23 KB
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  • #342
  • Mar 8, 2016 1:50pm Mar 8, 2016 1:50pm
let me show you what I'm looking at V


Quoting varun76
{quote} I doubt bones, if anything happens like this which I'm expecting, the doors will open to 500 pips +, as all the pairs have started moving their major direction. wE'RE EXTREMELY OVER SOLD {image} {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd CAD 14 (DFB).png Size: 16 KB
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  • #343
  • Mar 8, 2016 1:55pm Mar 8, 2016 1:55pm
then im waiting this tl ,I know this is difficult area ,but assume consolidation
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADLFXDaily.png Size: 23 KB
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  • #344
  • Mar 8, 2016 1:58pm Mar 8, 2016 1:58pm
so i def don't want to take the buy,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD d1 (DFB).png Size: 26 KB
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  • #345
  • Mar 8, 2016 1:59pm Mar 8, 2016 1:59pm
I wait for sell,hope it makes sense
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  • #346
  • Mar 8, 2016 7:49pm Mar 8, 2016 7:49pm
could be

Quoting Bones
eu {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu USD d1 (DFB).png Size: 30 KB
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  • #347
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:24am Mar 9, 2016 10:24am
therefore that tl is good, cad is in uptrend
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  • #348
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:27am Mar 9, 2016 10:27am
not trustworthy ,just like all the other relief rally bullish candles on this chart


Quoting Bones
so i def don't want to take the buy, {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD fail (DFB).png Size: 19 KB
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  • #349
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:37am Mar 9, 2016 10:37am
rally after break imo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD w1 (DFB).png Size: 27 KB
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  • #350
  • Edited 12:51pm Mar 9, 2016 10:48am | Edited 12:51pm
if it holds ,maybe this ,but its going to break
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp CAD d1 (DFB).png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd CAD d1 (DFB).png Size: 50 KB
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  • #351
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:19am Mar 9, 2016 11:19am
its going to be good


Quoting Bones
as long as 10107 holds bears will win this crazy consolidation {image} {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud d1 CAD (DFB).png Size: 38 KB
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  • #352
  • Mar 9, 2016 12:22pm Mar 9, 2016 12:22pm
Quoting Bones
if it holds ,maybe this ,but its going to break {image} {image}
Awesome
  • #353
  • Edited 7:32am Mar 12, 2016 7:07am | Edited 7:32am
could be ,bullish long legged doji
eu bears failed crucial level

Quoting varun76
{quote} Well done Bones, But I have been observing this pair for quite sometime are we ready to go long ? v {image} {image}
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur CAD w1 (DFB).png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu USD w1 (DFB).png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur cad d1 CAD (DFB).png Size: 38 KB
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  • #354
  • Mar 12, 2016 7:11am Mar 12, 2016 7:11am
still I would maintain this is super bearish ,also doubt buyers could change the open,its oversold ,


Quoting Bones
ill eat my hat should this month turn positive ,even any top wick {image}
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd CAD month (DFB).png Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD w1 (DFB).png Size: 32 KB
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  • #355
  • Edited 8:54am Mar 12, 2016 8:37am | Edited 8:54am
SP500 Outlook

If the cycle I currently following is correct and so far it has not failed yet, my outlook is for the SP500 to rise until the 6.April 2016, according to the cycle, the market will break the 2015 tops, whether we get to 2148 or 2439 is of no importance as I will simply be watching the date, the market will tell me the price when we get there, the price levels I have put on are based on the 1956 cycle and chaos theory.

I expect a sell off on Monday or Tuesday (14th 15th March) the SP likes to push down 250 to 300 points so you can see the double trend line is an area I would look to buy. I will buy and look for buying until the 6th take it as the first week in April. The 16th will possibly a strong upday, so any down move will be strcitly counter trend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SP500_Out_look_March_2016.png Size: 69 KB
  • #356
  • Mar 12, 2016 12:41pm Mar 12, 2016 12:41pm
Hi Hurst ,really ,candles don't work so well this space ,I was more thinking fail before that really hard res ,



Quoting Hurst
SP500 Outlook If the cycle I currently following is correct and so far it has not failed yet, my outlook is for the SP500 to rise until the 6.April 2016, according to the cycle, the market will break the 2015 tops, whether we get to 2148 or 2439 is of no importance as I will simply be watching the date, the market will tell me the price when we get there, the price levels I have put on are based on the 1956 cycle and chaos theory. I expect a sell off on Monday or Tuesday (14th 15th March) the SP likes to push down 250 to 300 points so you can see...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d1 SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (All Sessio (DFB).png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: month SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (All Sessio (DFB).png Size: 28 KB
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  • #357
  • Mar 12, 2016 1:50pm Mar 12, 2016 1:50pm
Prefer short thoughts gbp jpy ,any hint on next week it will fail this zone
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp JPY monthly (DFB).png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp JPY w1 (DFB).png Size: 41 KB
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  • #358
  • Edited 12:42pm Mar 13, 2016 11:46am | Edited 12:42pm
the thing is with cad ,and oil ,there could be something that will ignore standard tech analysis ,as I say no way would I long usd cad on that basis ,
like the swiss situ ,no way did that move meet your standard tech outlooks ,even consider oversold on the day
medium term you have to say trend is down,up to early june, poss beyond
in a nut shell big money are forward thinking news events to come ,and feeding chart short ,
Quoting Bones
still I would maintain this is super bearish ,also doubt buyers could change the open,its oversold , {quote} {image} {image}
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHF (DFB).png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 14 week CAD (DFB).png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: quarterly CAD (DFB).png Size: 31 KB
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  • #359
  • Mar 13, 2016 12:54pm Mar 13, 2016 12:54pm
heres my reasoning ,and why that numbers so important

Quoting Bones
as long as 10107 holds bears will win this crazy consolidation {image} {image}
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud CAD q (DFB).png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud CAD monthly (DFB).png Size: 33 KB
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  • #360
  • Mar 14, 2016 4:19am Mar 14, 2016 4:19am
Great thread here Sherlock -
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