AUD/USD

next big resistance area is around 0.76 and we may probably have a minor resistance at 0.7475

got in long 2x500K but closed out, appears overextended now. maybe I'm wrong but not taking chances here. 7360-80 looks good to buy pullbacks, however if we don't get there ready to short sell upon heavy resistance. no point chasing trades anyway.

Weekly Forex Risk Calendar. Week 10, 2016

I highly recommend saving the below events into your google calendar as a part of weekly routine. Please see further analysis below. It includes Tuesday to Friday trading sessions.


This week we are looking at two major events.

 

1. RBNZ rate decision and policy statement. Officially, market expects rates to stay unchanges but there is some speculation on the cut.
2. ECB will make headline on Wednesday with the similar statement.

Trading Highlights of the week:
Monday, March 7th @ 3:30am JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
Tuesday, March 8th @ Tentative:0am CNY Trade Balance
Tuesday, March 8th @ 9:15am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Wednesday, March 9th @ 9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
Wednesday, March 9th @ 3:0pm CAD BOC Rate Statement
Wednesday, March 9th @ 8:0pm NZD RBNZ Official Cash Rate and Rate Statement
Wednesday, March 9th @ 11:0pm NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
Thursday, March 10th @ 1:30am CNY CPI y/y
Thursday, March 10th @ 12:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate
Thursday, March 10th @ 1:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
Friday, March 11th @ 1:30pm CAD Employment Change

Tuesday

Tuesday, March 8th @ Tentative:0am CNY Trade Balance
Pretty important piece of data for China. China is one of the top exporting countries and the biggest supplier of goods. Lower trade balance would suggest exports prevail over imports hence the rest of the world (Chinas partners) are also recovering. The lower number would suggest sluggish growth elsewhere. This report always has an impact on AUD and other commodity currencies.
Market expects 329B vs 406B previously. Lower than expected number would send AUD crosses lower on the day.
Tuesday, March 8th @ 9:15am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Carney speaks before the Parliamentary Committee in London. Central bankers speeches are always worth to keep on eye. Carney could potentially mention monetary policy in details. Positive statements would be positive for the local currency (GBP); dovish tone could sell off GBP.

Wednesday

Wednesday, March 9th @ 9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
Market expects 0.2% vs a negative 0.2% prior. Given pretty bad streak of economics news from UK recently, I wouldnt expect this to print any better. GBPUSD is now approaching an important resistance at 1.4350. A negative print would add to bearish bias on Cable.
Wednesday, March 9th @ 3:0pm CAD BOC Rate and Statement
BOC is expected to stay put on rates for the moment. Low CAD prices on the back of cheap oil had a simulative effect on the Canadian economy over the past year or so. This trend continues. There is no reason for BOC to act with the currency that cheap.
Wednesday, March 9th @ 8:0pm NZD RBNZ Official Cash Rate and Rate Statement
This could be an event of the week indeed. Officially the market expects for rates to stay unchanged at 2.5%. From the other hand, there is a good bit of speculation between analysts expecting RBNZ to cut by 0.25%. If this is the case, we could see a sharp decline across NZD crosses right after the release.
Wednesday, March 9th @ 11:0pm NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
This will be in spotlight depending on the previous happenings with rates.

Thursday

Thursday, March 10th @ 1:30am CNY CPI y/y
Chinese CPI is expected to print unchanged at 1.8%. There is no pressure on inflation in China. Deviations from expectation would not have so much impact on currencies across the board. Markets are more concern about industrial production and monetary policy in China.
Thursday, March 10th @ 12:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate
Thursday, March 10th @ 1:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
Another big event on the week. Markets are looking out at ECB to ease further. Minimum bid rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.5% but ECB could stimulate other variables like Deposit rate. This is expected to be cut by 0.1%. QE could be also bumped up.

Friday

Friday, March 11th @ 1:30pm CAD Employment Change
This is probably non-event, given the rate decision was announced only two days ago.
Happy Trading
HumbleTraders

Look out below as the mining stocks firstly went up and now are turning down .

Suckers rally in the equities and equally one in the AUD.

Fundamentally Australia resource sector is stuffed for some time .

Big miners have being laying off staff on the quiet as they know this is not a temporary halt by China.

copper futures get dumped post weak CNY export/import data. AU will be pressured. Possible change of mid-term trend to follow. Looking for D1 bear engulfer to confirm the above.

Recent rally is only there to be sold.

Potential's on the downside - resume trend on (5) & target to take out bottom of ending diagonal.

nice overview there bro. We're on the same page, looking for the downmove to accelerate now.

don't get carried away with the china export numbers the Lunar New Year holidays took up half of the month when businesses stopped working

its worse then expected but the market will soon price in seasonal effect

pull back to 0.7350-70 level is probable would be a good level to buy

early market activity of iron ore prices is at $64 price will be published in 2 hrs


if you guys interested in following the iron ore daily pricing this is a good account on twitter for daily prices @ironoreindex

Australian government mid year budget had iron ore price assumption of $ 39 now its at $63

if it stays at 63 its worth about $25-30 billion over 4 years of forward estimates according to Stephen koukoulas managing director of market economics

Chinese steel price surge raises hopes that iron ore rally can last price rallied 27% since Friday to 2,260 yuan

http://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/8...#ixzz42IgGDxSn

http://www.afr.com/markets/iron-ores...0160307-gnd5d1

first article seems you need a subscription to view here is a copy


Chinese steel prices surged to the highest level in more than a year on Tuesday, amid hopes of a sustained pick-up in demand from the construction sector, rather than the reality of new orders.
The recent frenzy has been partially fuelled by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, who told delegates during a session of the National People's Congress in Beijing that "fortune" requires "building".
"We should not be obsessed by the pursuit of GDP growth but we should not discard it either," he told delegates from Fujian Province.
The comments, released on Tuesday, have been interpreted as a signal the government will do more to support construction activity across China, and economic growth more generally.
These remarks pushed the price of steel billets in Tangshan, the country's steel production capital, to their highest level since December 2014 on Tuesday. The price has rallied 27 per cent since Friday to 2,260 yuan.
But the dramatic turnaround in sentiment appears to be based on the promise of new government spending, rather than any actual increase in planned projects for this year.
In the government's work report released on Saturday, Mr Li said the central government's budget for infrastructure investment would increase to 500 billion yuan this year, up 4.7 per cent from last year.
Railway investment from all levels of government is forecast at 800 billion yuan, in line with last year.

CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS

"The price rises [for steel and iron ore] have been driven by a change in people's expectations, rather than a pick-up in genuine demand," said Xu Xiangchuan, the chief information officer at research firm MySteel, by phone.
Those expectations were fuelled by the government's commitment to keep economic growth at 6.5 per cent for the next five years, well above the forecasts of most economists.
Mr Li also said "development" rather than structural reform remained the government's top priority.
Such pro-growth comments have brought about a change in sentiment according to Mr Xu of MySteel. "People are now expecting inflation rather than deflation," he said.
Mr Xu said steel traders have been re-stocking over recent days, which had driven the price increase. "They can't restock forever: they now need to sell this inventory," he said.
And he does not believe the rally will last. "The iron ore price will fall back to between $US40 and $US50 a tonne," he said.
On Monday night the benchmark iron ore price rose $US9.99, 18.5 per cent, to $US63.74 a tonne, according to Metal Bulletin. It was the largest gain since daily pricing began in mid-2008

OPTIMISM TEMPERED

This optimism was somewhat tempered later on Tuesday when China reported a second month of poor trade data.
The National Bureau of Statistics said exports in local currency terms fell a worse than expected 20.6 per cent in February, compared to the same month last year.
In US dollar terms it was the worst performance by China's exports since May 2009.
Imports came in slightly better than expected, falling 8 per cent over the year.
The large decline in the value of trade is mainly due to commodity price falls over the last year, rather than a drop in imported volumes.
China's imported iron ore volumes rose 6.4 per cent over the first two months of the year to 159 million tonnes, as Australian and Brazilian miners took market share from higher-cost Chinese players.
The volume of China's imported iron ore rose 2.2 per cent in 2015, even as steel production fell 2.3 per cent to 803 million tonnes, according to government figures.
In a separate release on Tuesday, China's peak auto body said car sales over the first two months of the year climbed 6.3 per cent, helped by tax cuts and easier access to credit.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...r-than-revival

everybody is stunted by the ferocity of the move caught them by surprise as I mention few weeks back right now nobody knows whats causing that move

is it just speculation or a fundamental change in demand or supply

usually fundamentals lag price movement

todays iron ore price consolidates yesterdays gains with price ending at $63.63 (-0.11)

probably a H&S is forming on the 1hr timeframe

A break of today's low will confirm pattern a break of yesterday's high will invalidate the pattern

this up move starting to mature probably one more higher high or that H&S is confirmed

then this thread will return to life again

Aha, did not see any H&S here ? But good news if you see some, I'm short since the morning.
edit: Ah ok, I see now the history, you mentioned on H1.