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AUD/USD

  • #95,881
  • Mar 6, 2016 6:14am Mar 6, 2016 6:14am
Quoting dab
{quote} {quote} Please comment on the confilict - is it not enough iron ore to deliver or a stockpile of 98 million tons?

Its true China is stocking history high amount of iron ores.But there is also history high shorts opened in the January and February.to close those shorts,they need more.And some domestic mine don't want to sell now,they hope the ongoing 5 year plan meeting will announce more government projects,like in 2009.
  • #95,882
  • Mar 6, 2016 7:06am Mar 6, 2016 7:06am
Commitments of Traders week 9

A very interesting turn around for the Australian currency.
AUD GDP q/q printed positive 0.6% vs 0.5% expected and +1.1% previously revised.
The probability that the RBA will cut in May has now dropped from 55% to 43%.
Excellent news was reflected in the AUDUSD charts.
Aussie broke resistance and closed the week 0.7430, the level not seen in this markets since July last year.
Again the price followed bullish sentiment among Non-Commercial traders from few weeks ago when they became NET LONG in AUD futures.
This week, the same pattern continues.
NC traders added another 4K long positions to their portfolios and reduced shorts by 3.3K.
This suggests further increase in price in AUD Dollar in the coming weeks.

See notes from the Commitments of Traders Report Week 7 2016
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HumbleTraders
  • #95,883
  • Mar 6, 2016 7:25am Mar 6, 2016 7:25am
Quoting gfscapital
Commitments of Traders week 9
good overview, thanks.
  • #95,884
  • Mar 6, 2016 8:48am Mar 6, 2016 8:48am
In my opinion the AUD strength is temporary. As soon as Iron Ore and other commodities start to drop again the big money managers will go short and AUD will drop rapidly. It might take couple of weeks but eventually it will happen.

"Port holdings of ore in China rose 0.2 per cent to 95.75 million tons last week to the highest level since May, according to Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology. In the past year, inventories have expanded 13 per cent.
"Short-term supply disruptions have been the main driver" of iron ore's recent rise, National Australia Bank said in a report received on Thursday, sticking with a forecast for prices to average $US42 this year. "We don't believe that this rally can be sustained due to the weakness in market fundamentals."


Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/mining/i...#ixzz428N9bkQy
  • #95,885
  • Mar 6, 2016 12:39pm Mar 6, 2016 12:39pm
Maybe this.

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  • #95,886
  • Mar 6, 2016 12:51pm Mar 6, 2016 12:51pm
I see the recent rally in the AUD as a sell on momentum weakness. For now the RBA want to see if the market brings the Aussie down and left rates on hold. The RBA is reluctant to cut rates due to high household debt and a housing bubble in Sydney and Melbournce but will cut if they have to.

RBA deputy Governor Philip Lowe said recently that the central bank will ease policy if necessary “nothing has changed” and it hasn't - the RBA need a lower exchange rate to make non mining exports more competitive. My view is with China slowing up and commodity prices falling hard, the RBA may not have to cut rates as market forces will probably bring the Aussie down.

Australia faces the biggest slump in the terms of trade since records began more than 50 years ago and its likely to get worse before it gets better. Australia is suffering as commodity prices fall and prices will fall further as China its major trading partner slows up. China has huge problems with debt which is at all levels of society and its 28 trillion dollars 280% of annual GDP. We have a slowing economy, a housing and stock market bubble which points to China having a hard landing. The Chinese have set a growth target of 7.0% percent for 2015 but this is way to optimistic and I think it will be lucky to do 5% and probably less.
  • #95,887
  • Mar 6, 2016 2:14pm Mar 6, 2016 2:14pm
Quoting Soyo24
I would short it at the open with a sl at fridays high, its deep past its upper bollinger band.
I have similar thinking, the move is so extended. wonder why? Probably typical friday "strange" movements that will be corrected Sunday/Monday.
  • #95,888
  • Mar 6, 2016 5:37pm Mar 6, 2016 5:37pm
bearish with a target .7100
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  • #95,889
  • Mar 6, 2016 7:58pm Mar 6, 2016 7:58pm
I don't know if this is too out there but my Russian friend said that oil dropped due to america needing their currency reserves back. SO china and Russia dumped usd back into the market, over the oil slump to keep their own economies a float. Now that america has got the currency back in their hands, business as usual and everyone in oil is happy to restrict supply. Well OPEC had a meeting about 2 weeks ago and my understanding was they were all back to lifting prices. So if your waiting for oil to drop again in my opinion it has already bottomed. Which means the aud should slowly become stronger.
  • #95,890
  • Mar 6, 2016 8:39pm Mar 6, 2016 8:39pm
Quoting FXchief
I see the recent rally in the AUD as a sell on momentum weakness. For now the RBA want to see if the market brings the Aussie down and left rates on hold. The RBA is reluctant to cut rates due to high household debt and a housing bubble in Sydney and Melbournce but will cut if they have to. RBA deputy Governor Philip Lowe said recently that the central bank will ease policy if necessary nothing has changed and it hasn't - the RBA need a lower exchange rate to make non mining exports more competitive. My view is with China slowing up and commodity...
Thanks for the lowdown chief, do you think Ill be ok in my tea pot ?
  • #95,891
  • Mar 6, 2016 10:51pm Mar 6, 2016 10:51pm
Aussie is holding up well but expect a pull back to 0.7350 level for a better buying opportunity
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,892
  • Mar 6, 2016 11:20pm Mar 6, 2016 11:20pm
My feeling is 100 pip drop tonight.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #95,893
  • Mar 6, 2016 11:29pm Mar 6, 2016 11:29pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
Aussie is holding up well but expect a pull back to 0.7350 level for a better buying opportunity
A pull back to 7350 may open a little further drop so watch close if ya buy that level , .7384 is last quarters high , Im thinking it has to hold that level to get back to the highs even , , A pull back on copper (it just hit its 200 day sma) to its pivot may point to a pull back on aud to its quarterly open at .7285, stps on my aud longs I have left are below the quarterly open, just saying lol, hate to see anyone give much back. Lot of news due Tuesday that ought to fire this and the nzd up for the week , Copper daily and aud daily chart shown
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  • #95,894
  • Mar 6, 2016 11:31pm Mar 6, 2016 11:31pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
My feeling is 100 pip drop tonight.
Looking like it could dribble down a bit before all the news starts hitting
  • #95,895
  • Mar 6, 2016 11:40pm Mar 6, 2016 11:40pm
Quoting digger1
{quote}A pull back to 7350 may open a little further drop so watch close if ya buy that level , .7384 is last quarters high , Im thinking it has to hold that level to get back to the highs even , , A pull back on copper (it just hit its 200 day sma) to its pivot may point to a pull back on aud to its quarterly open at .7285, stps on my aud longs I have left are below the quarterly open, just saying lol, hate to see anyone give much back. Lot of news due Tuesday that ought to fire this and the nzd up for the week , Copper daily and aud daily chart...
thanks digger good to see bought that break out and changed your bearish sentiment and you weren't married to that double top

good luck mate
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,896
  • Mar 6, 2016 11:58pm Mar 6, 2016 11:58pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
{quote} thanks digger good to see bought that break out and changed your bearish sentiment and your not married to that double top good luck mate
lol, told ya I try and only be opinionated which ever way I have to be to make money , , 7208 was my level stated a few times bullish above bearish below . Double top played out , shorts made some if they locked profits in,,,,,,,,,,,,,, unless they sold a 3rd time there then not so much lol
  • #95,897
  • Mar 7, 2016 2:56am Mar 7, 2016 2:56am
Quoting alayinizAMK
trend may sustain {image}
i expect a 5th failure or something close to that
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  • #95,898
  • Mar 7, 2016 4:28am Mar 7, 2016 4:28am
taking loss on AUDCAD shorts. once or twice a year AUDCAD will have these huge moves(way outside regular ATR) and this has been one of them thanks to rally in Oil me thinks so I am happy to except loss of 1-2% and be dead wrong. Congrats to all the longs holding AUD long.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #95,899
  • Mar 7, 2016 5:45am Mar 7, 2016 5:45am
Iron ore in unprecedented 20% gain, $US10, in tonight's price fix



Iron ore explodes again - biggest ever one-day gain
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,900
  • Mar 7, 2016 6:07am Mar 7, 2016 6:07am
Quoting blue_z_zz
Iron ore in unprecedented 20% gain, $US10, in tonight's price fix Iron ore explodes again - biggest ever one-day gain

Many traders in china now faces compulsory liquidation. However there is no one selling and price reached daily limit. It is very likely in the following 2-3 days iron ore will rise another 10%-20%. But that's just a bubble, no real demand increasing, soon it will fall again, to a even lower level.
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