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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #2,241
  • Mar 3, 2016 7:37am Mar 3, 2016 7:37am
At 10:00 am EST the US will release ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Expected at 53.2 after a prior of 53.5.
Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,242
  • Mar 3, 2016 9:08am Mar 3, 2016 9:08am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,243
  • Edited 10:53am Mar 3, 2016 10:36am | Edited 10:53am
At 7:30 pm Australia will release Retail Sales.

Friday
15:30
03/04/16
US Number of employed outside agriculture HOT!
(US Non-Farm Employment Change), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.
_________________________________________________________________________________________
In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to the different degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics on reactions
US Number of employed outside agriculture
date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast (US Non-Farm Employment Change)
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast (US Unemployment Rate)
Reaction trading pairs in points
Comments
06/11/2015 86 0 92 Height couple
02.10.2015 -59 0 80 Fall
04/09/2015 0.1 44 -44 and Fall rollback and rollback on salaries growth data did not support the drop
07.08.2015 -10 0 23/30 spiking
02.07.2015 -10 -0.1 Fall 38-50 pairs
05/06/2015 55 90 0.1 Growth couples
05/08/2015 0 45 -4.5 and rollback to drop back
03/04/2015 0 90 -119 Fall couple
03/06/2015 60 45 0.1 Growth couples
01/09/2015 12 0.1 40/15 spiking on 40/15
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,244
  • Mar 3, 2016 10:51am Mar 3, 2016 10:51am
What is the News Hub Lockup like?

Shortly after dawn on most weekday mornings, a strange ritual takes place in Washington D.C. Two dozen select men and women leave their homes, grab their newspapers, and rush off to spend part of the day under virtual house arrest. Yes, house arrest—as in incarceration. Precisely where they go to be confined can vary day to day. It could be in a dilapidated government building one morning and a high-tech office complex the next. Regardless of the location, what occurs in all these places is always the same. They enter a strict, prison-like setting where contact with the outside world is cut off.
One Friday morning, this same group climbs a long set of steps to the side entrance of a sleek, white-stone building on 3rd Avenue and C Street in the heart of the nation's capital. Armed guards greet them at the entrance for a security check; from this point on, everyone has to wear their ID tags at all times. The visitors proceed across a lobby, down a quiet narrow corridor, eventually stopping in front of a locked, heavy wooden door. A government official awaits them and quickly opens the door to reveal a drab, windowless, L-shaped room 40 feet long and some 10 feet across. It is empty except for two dozen plain-looking orange and chrome chairs, each resting alongside a row of narrow cubicle-like desks. A digital clock that rests high on the wall breaks time down to seconds. It is 7:30:15 a.m., and already 12 people have found their way into the "lock-up" room. More are expected within the next 15 minutes. All who enter dutifully sign their names on a special sheet.
Despite its austere appearance, there is an atmosphere of calm in the room, at least for now. Some visitors talk excitedly about the previous night's televised basketball game. Others are either chatting on cell phones or checking their Palm Pilots for messages. A few keep to themselves by catching up on the morning paper or downing a quick muffin and coffee. Everyone in the room, however, makes a point of always knowing the time, with some people eyeing the digital clock so frequently that their actions may be mistaken for nervous tics.
As the time approaches 8 a.m., there is a palpable change in mood. Gone now are the sounds of light conversation; these sounds are replaced by the din of laptops firing up. Everyone appears to be focused on what is about to occur.
At 7:55 a.m. sharp, a government official walks in and picks up a wall phone to call the Naval Observatory, home to the Vice President of the United States. It is also the location of the ultra-accurate atomic clock. She listens intently for a few seconds and then abruptly hangs up without saying a word. The individual then inserts a key into a lock on the wall, which allows her to adjust the digital clock to the precise second. With the correct time now set, the official then turns around to make a terse announcement.
"Please turn off all cell phones and Palm Pilots, and disconnect laptops from your telephone lines."
To make sure everyone complies, the official walks across the room and eyes each desk. Meanwhile a second federal employee arrives carrying copies of a highly sensitive government report. Each one is placed facedown on an empty desk.
Then it begins.
At precisely 8 a.m., the door to the lock-up room clicks shut. From this point on, all those inside are out of touch with the rest of the world. No one is permitted to leave. No calls or messages can come into or out of the room. Security is tight. A guard stands by outside, ready to use force if anyone attempts to sneak out.
What secret is the government protecting? Is the CIA about to begin a classified briefing on intelligence activities? Are Congressional investigators huddling to hear the newest terrorist threat? No. All these precautions are taken for one reason. The government is about to release numbers. Statistics. More precisely, economic statistics. The visitors in the room are business reporters representing news organizations from around the world, and this morning they're working out of the Department of Labor's secure press room.
Why such tight secrecy? Because in the next few seconds, these journalists will be the first to lay their eyes on one of the country's most sensitive economic measures—the monthly report on employment conditions. It can shed fresh light on whether the U.S. economy is growing or facing a slowdown. Did the number of Americans who have jobs rise or fall in the latest month? Have hourly wages gone up or did they drop? Did people work more hours or less? These statistics might not seem particularly earthshaking to most Americans, but they can and do whip the global stock, bond, and currency markets into a frenzy. For individual investors and professional money managers, the information in the jobs report can mean the difference between having a winning or losing portfolio. It also explains the need for the security measures. Individuals getting such hot figures ahead of time can make a quick bundle of money because they know something of which no one else in the financial markets is yet aware. To prevent such abuses, the government guards these and dozens of other key economic indicators as tightly as a military base. It also implements a carefully controlled procedure to disseminate sensitive economic news.
8:00:00 The instant the door is shut, reporters dive in to grab the latest release on employment conditions, which up to now had been facedown. They have just 30 minutes to read, digest, and write their stories on how the job market changed during the previous month. Most of the journalists arrived that morning with the expectation that the employment release would carry dismal economic news, with the number of people without jobs rising—a troubling sign the economy was weakening. At least that was the opinion of most professional forecasters whom these reporters consulted just days earlier.
But on this particular morning, the employment report stuns everyone. Those in the lock-up room read with amazement that companies actually hired workers in far greater numbers than anyone expected. Moreover, other figures inside the report appear to corroborate signs the economy is doing quite well. Wages are rising and factory overtime is increasing. Far from slowing, the latest evidence indicates the economy is actually picking up steam. It is astounding news of which the rest of the world is yet unaware.
As the digital clock continues its silent countdown, reporters working on the story suddenly face some urgent questions. What's really happening in the economy? Why were so many "experts" caught off guard? What does this mean for future inflation and interest rates? How might the stock, bond, and currency markets react to the news?
Though the latest jobs report was unexpected, these journalists are not completely unprepared. As is their routine, a day or two earlier they showered private economists with questions that covered a variety of hypothetical employment scenarios. What does it mean if the job market worsens? What if it actually improves? Now the reporters are frantically searching through their interview notes to help them file their stories.
8:28:00 A Labor Department worker in the lock-up room notifies television reporters that they can now leave under escort to prepare for their live 8:30 broadcast of the jobs report.
For the remaining journalists in the room, there is just a brief warning: "Two minutes left!" By now, most have pieced together their initial version of the story—the headline, the opening sentences, key numbers, and the implications for the economy. All that's left are some last-minute fact checking and a word tweak here and there.
8:29:00 "One minute. You can open your telephone lines—BUT DO NOT TRANSMIT!"
The level of tension is not just high in the lock-up room, for at that moment, money managers and traders in New York, Chicago, Tokyo, Hong Kong, London, Paris, and Frankfurt are riveted to their computer screens, anxiously waiting for the release of the crucial jobs report. It's a stomach-churning time for them because investment decisions that involve hundreds of billions of dollars will be made the instant the latest employment news flashes across their monitors. Why such worldwide interest in how jobs fare in America? For one, many foreign investors own U.S. stocks and bonds, and their values can rise or fall based on what the job report says. Second, the international economy is now so tightly interconnected that a weak or strong jobs report in the U.S. can directly impact business activity in other countries. If joblessness in America climbs, consumers will likely purchase fewer cars from Germany, wine from France, and clothing from Indonesia. In contrast, a jump in employment means households will have more income to spend on imports, and this can stimulate foreign economies.
8:29:30 "Thirty seconds!" The fingers of reporters hover over their computer's Send button, ready to dispatch the latest employment news to the world. On-air reporters are also prepared to deliver the news live.
8:29:50 An official counts the final seconds out loud.
"Ten . . . nine . . . eight . . . seven . . . six . . . five . . . four . . . three . . . two . . . one!"
8:30:00 "Transmit!" Reporters simultaneously hit the Send buttons on their keyboards. In seconds, electronic news carriers, including Bloomberg, AP, Reuters, and Japan's Kyodo News, release their stories. Television and cable news stations, such as CNBC, Bloomberg TV, CNN, and MSNBC broadcast the report live. A second or two later, computer screens around the globe carry the first surprising words: "Jobs unexpectedly rose the previous month, with the unemployment rate falling instead of rising!"
For journalists in the lock-up room, the stress-filled half-hour grind is over, and they are now free to leave. But the work has just begun for those in the investment community.

2006.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,245
  • Mar 3, 2016 11:27am Mar 3, 2016 11:27am
beginning non-farm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,246
  • Mar 3, 2016 3:25pm Mar 3, 2016 3:25pm
We continue to buy traffic
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,247
  • Edited 5:44pm Mar 3, 2016 3:51pm | Edited 5:44pm
in theory, go right
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,248
  • Mar 3, 2016 5:44pm Mar 3, 2016 5:44pm
best of all is when to move the stop.
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,249
  • Mar 3, 2016 6:10pm Mar 3, 2016 6:10pm
the market is always right.
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,250
  • Mar 3, 2016 7:26pm Mar 3, 2016 7:26pm
Quoting vvFish
{quote} {image} My friend, when out on the oil news I trade oil and do not apply to other symbols. Each broker oil can have its symbol OLI, Crude OLi, WTI. All this is a symbol of oil.
Thank you so much master!

I want to trade with " 2nd SL break In " today. May I have your opinion on this?
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No one wants to be defeated~
  • #2,251
  • Mar 3, 2016 7:29pm Mar 3, 2016 7:29pm
Quoting vvFish
the market is always right. {image}
What a great trade it is! A true buy low sell high model!
No one wants to be defeated~
  • #2,252
  • Mar 3, 2016 8:00pm Mar 3, 2016 8:00pm
Quoting vvFish
What is the News Hub Lockup like? Shortly after dawn on most weekday mornings, a strange ritual takes place in Washington D.C. Two dozen select men and women leave their homes, grab their newspapers, and rush off to spend part of the day under virtual house arrest. Yes, house arrestas in incarceration. Precisely where they go to be confined can vary day to day. It could be in a dilapidated government building one morning and a high-tech office complex the next. Regardless of the location, what occurs in all these places is always the same. They...
quite fair for all players. you know what? In China, the government release NEWS only during market close hours, bad or good whatever a big gap tomorrow.... who have good relationship with government will know the NEWS several days before others.

In USA, who play like this will be sent to jail.
No one wants to be defeated~
  • #2,253
  • Mar 4, 2016 12:50am Mar 4, 2016 12:50am
Quoting jonirrenicus
{quote} Thank you so much master! I want to trade with " 2nd SL break In " today. May I have your opinion on this? {image}
Hello.
No one can stop you to write what you think.
The main thing that it was in the bounds of decency to the other participants.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,254
  • Mar 4, 2016 12:53am Mar 4, 2016 12:53am
Quoting jonirrenicus
{quote} quite fair for all players. you know what? In China, the government release NEWS only during market close hours, bad or good whatever a big gap tomorrow.... who have good relationship with government will know the NEWS several days before others. In USA, who play like this will be sent to jail.
in prison allowed to use a laptop?
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,255
  • Mar 4, 2016 1:39am Mar 4, 2016 1:39am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} in prison allowed to use a laptop?
In Chinese prison, no! other countries, Yes
No one wants to be defeated~
  • #2,256
  • Mar 4, 2016 1:45am Mar 4, 2016 1:45am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Non-Farm Employment Chang

Markets expect the strong US labor market report, which in turn can move up expectations of the Fed's interest rates this year. At the beginning of the year the markets to price in four interest rate increases in 2016, but inflation problem in the global context, as well as risks from Europe and China was forced to leave the expectations at the end of the year and reduce the number of steps to one, but now it is not so.
By the summer is expected to first increase the Fed's interest rate. In this second step increase is planned for December.
More than once you have seen how the expectations are moved from one extreme to another on the basis of the incoming fresh statistics, Non-Farm Employment Change is its crowning glory.
Indicator as beautiful as dangerous. For those who still did not know why at the time of the release of NFP may occur thorns - do not miss the next paragraph, those who know it can jump.
Labour Market Statistics carries a number of important publications which are tantamount to influence the market, with the main headliner is traditionally considered Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP comes with the unemployment rate first - the pair produces primary reaction in the markets. At the same time, between the conflict may occur (when one is positive and the other negative), but it does not matter, because the system will be turned on conflict prevention. US Change in NonFarm Payrolls + US Unemployment Rate. The second pair is followed, sometimes within seconds, and also perceived by the markets closely: the dynamics of growth of wages and the revised data of the last NFP release. There is already a system of conflict prevention will not work: by the time they leave, "not at the same time" and "later." Accordingly, it is recommended to comply with the risks.
Crumbs on his way to the NFP spread: ADP promises to 200K level increase (and this psychological threshold), component Employment ISM Manufacturing PMI, though below the "50", but above the previous (48.5 vs. 45.9), Employment ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, though below earlier, but about turn "50" (49.7 vs. 52.1). Common fundamental mood is an increase 200K, total official forecasts focused on 190-195K level.
Traditionally, there are, as the arguments "for" and the arguments "against", and self-sufficient NFP he puts everything in its place.
Janet Yellen, the Fed's control, although some reduced hype surrounding Average Hourly Earnings index, but still, the market's attention to it until the height, respectively, again accept the risks of conflict indicators.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,257
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:43am Mar 4, 2016 7:43am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,258
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:06am Mar 4, 2016 9:06am
Great weekend to everyone.
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,259
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:09am Mar 4, 2016 10:09am
Quoting jonirrenicus
{quote} In Chinese prison, no! other countries, Yes
China definitely will not go....
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,260
  • Mar 4, 2016 11:02am Mar 4, 2016 11:02am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Good bad Nonfarm

US Nonfarm published on line its Canadian counterpart, the RBNZ meeting, the Bank of Canada, and the next turning point of fundamental quips - the ECB meeting.

Canada
Oil prices have stabilized, if that word is appropriate in the situation with oil, stabilized and Canadian (not without the help of positive statistics course on GDP). Still, markets expect a serious decline in the interest rate, and the hottest point is scheduled for April.

The next meeting of the Bank of Canada will be held on Wednesday, with enough interest to make the protocols.

The second major event of the week for CAD will be the publication of its own Non-Farm Employment Change, which this time is published separately from that of the American statistics, which is rare. So, do not miss.

USA
Despite the mediocre data from industrial and non-PMI markets took positively Statistics - Business climate sentiment on the rise, a positive trend can be seen. This was the foundation of the residual cementation of positive expectations from the NFP, published this Friday.

Several Fed officials are diverse in their opinions, but they are all agreed on the fact that "monetary policy normalization should take place, but at a moderate pace."

So, Dudley is not set to raise interest rates, but it supports the policy tightening in general. William (now do not vote) sees no reason for concern about domestic demand. Kaplan (without voting rights), said that the Fed should show "patience" [is this word may again return to the protocols Fedreza?]. The next Fed meeting will be held March 15-16.

On Friday, the published statistics of the labor market:

US Change in Non-Farm Payrolls 242K vs. 195 forecast

Revised Data (revised) increase from 151K to 172K

With the conflict in the dynamics of wages: 0.1% vs. 0.2%

The data in the general extraordinary, against the backdrop of the latest developments can be denoted as positive, but the wage increase is an additional concern. The primary reaction was the strengthening of the dollar, but short-lived, much to fall on his salary is also not allowed.

The result: unemployment remains at 4.9%; NFP positive growth above average, but the wage increase brings the light of its structure - so it will be difficult to beat inflation.

Australia
In this Tuesday, as expected, the RBA's interest rate remained unchanged at 2%. Practically, traditionally, the RBA does not preclude the reduction in interest rates, by reducing the overall level of inflation, which is fixed at the lower boundary of the target level of the Bank. However, Glenn Stevens positively assesses the prospects for the economy, and expects further growth in 2016. The main risk for the RBA is now, perhaps, is the strengthening of the national currency.

New Zealand
New Zealand had a dairy auction prices showed growth of + 1.4%, but compared to the previous two cuts, it looks uncertainly. Recall that the export of dairy products is fundamental to NT source of income.
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On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold a meeting, a change in interest rates is not expected, but the main focus will be directed at meeting the punctures. The fundamental background for the central bank right now is that the direction of monetary policy is neutral with a prevalence towards easing. The slightest change in input will significantly change the mood of the markets.

EC
EUR swirls around the upcoming ECB meeting, which will take place next week and is rather ambiguous. Despite the fact that Mario Draghi has "promised" further substantial easing of monetary policy markets. On Friday, the markets started talking about dissonance couloir ECB - consensus on the reduction of interest rates is not on the March decision of a consensus yet. It is rumored, but they have already made havoc in the markets. How would the ECB once again did not disappoint investors.

And now for the information carefully. Who was the first to answer the question in the comments: "When Mario Draghi attacked the press conference" and will link to the post on our website - will receive a free 2GB VPS server from chocoping.com partners on the British site for a month!

The ECB meeting will be held on Thursday 10 March, deflation continues, and "this must be something to do."

Britannia
Britain is trying to decide "whether it is smart, or beautiful": talking about the upcoming referendum on the exit from the EU. Cameron after a deal with the European Union (of which discussed earlier) took the side "of the left" and the policy of oppression in this way. So the British government submitted a report on how the country will be weakened if the referendum vote in favor of most of the way out of the Union. Alternatives to stay in the reformed EU countries the government does not see.

The main opponent of this view is the Mayor of London, he is quite popular, but it is likely he will just "annoying."

It should be noted that a decline in PMI index data, on the market there are talks about a possible softening of the Bank of England policy.

A few words about China
Moody's warned, and still made it: China's credit rating lowered from "stable" to "negative", while long-term Aa3 left unchanged, but again warned that it probably will not in the future fate of the rainbow.
We can see the weak GDP growth in China in 2016: statistics indicate a possible increase of 6.7% over the year (last year fell to 6.9% growth). For comparison, in 2013 + 10.1% and 10.3% in 2012.
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