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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #59,521
  • Mar 2, 2016 3:25am Mar 2, 2016 3:25am
Seems that the pair is all set to test 114.85 - 115.00 area.
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  • #59,522
  • Mar 2, 2016 7:59am Mar 2, 2016 7:59am
The bull gave up a chunk of green pips from a good ADP number.

A sign of a reversal to 112?
  • #59,523
  • Mar 2, 2016 6:05pm Mar 2, 2016 6:05pm
No one know anything about the fondamental driving this pair .... And d'évaluation not working to inflate inflation & price . JPY is the safe heaven it strengthen during déflation .hedges funds playing catch up & very bullish .
, the most ever on USD . but implied probabilité for raté hike are near 0% until 2018%. Knowing that only 10% of hedges funds survives. Faire value of USD/jpy is at 110. Thé 120 usdjpy price was pricing infinité QE & global inflation & Word GDP growing.

GDP is near 0 , inflation is contracting for the last 3 years world wide m'ont after month.

Knowing tbat jpy printing press doent raise japan inflation & export shrinking because word GDP is near 0 & demande is near zéro.

JPY is like gold ... When word economie slowing down. Usdjpy is heading to usdjpy 110 the. Thé fed will be forces to start QE . then USDJPY go to 100 and lower this year.


Jappan cant Deval any more because ther is almost no bond left to buy and short usdjpy SL 120 TP 110 & 100
  • #59,524
  • Mar 2, 2016 6:39pm Mar 2, 2016 6:39pm
Quoting pbx06
No one know anything about the fondamental driving this pair .... And d'valuation not working to inflate inflation & price . JPY is the safe heaven it strengthen during dflation .hedges funds playing catch up & very bullish . , the most ever on USD . but implied probabilit for rat hike are near 0% until 2018%. Knowing that only 10% of hedges funds survives. Faire value of USD/jpy is at 110. Th 120 usdjpy price was pricing infinit QE & global inflation & Word GDP growing. GDP is near 0 , inflation is contracting for the last 3 years world wide m'ont...
Its almost like BOJ timed their extreme monetary devaluation during a time when it was in high demand IE investors demand to safe haven currencies. Whether this was their intention or not I don't know but I think your viewpoint is spot on here. But the real full shift is slow for the crowd to realize.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #59,525
  • Mar 3, 2016 4:26am Mar 3, 2016 4:26am
Quoting pbx06
No one know anything about the fondamental driving this pair .... And d'valuation not working to inflate inflation & price . JPY is the safe heaven it strengthen during dflation .hedges funds playing catch up & very bullish . , the most ever on USD . but implied probabilit for rat hike are near 0% until 2018%. Knowing that only 10% of hedges funds survives. Faire value of USD/jpy is at 110. Th 120 usdjpy price was pricing infinit QE & global inflation & Word GDP growing. GDP is near 0 , inflation is contracting for the last 3 years world wide m'ont...
When the printing presses run then the local currency usually runs in their favor. Nikkei needs to climb,exports to need to rise and tourism needs to rise so the YEN needs to drop.
  • #59,526
  • Edited 5:21am Mar 3, 2016 4:42am | Edited 5:21am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} When the printing presses run then the local currency usually runs in their favor. Nikkei needs to climb,exports to need to rise and tourism needs to rise so the YEN needs to drop.
Do you mean the period before Easter (the mid of March to the start of April), the YEN will drop (USD/JPY up) to promote tourism on Easter (tourist package normally requires 2 weeks to prepare.)? Do you have some ideas how to raise exports (Do you mean TPP?)?
  • #59,527
  • Mar 3, 2016 10:46am Mar 3, 2016 10:46am
Taking a long here at 113.40 with 50-pip SL. The longterm trend is still up so I was just looking for a nice long entry and once 114.50 is broken, I could take half profit and let the rest ride.
  • #59,528
  • Mar 3, 2016 12:14pm Mar 3, 2016 12:14pm
Watching out for the downside - possible extended 5th of a larger wave (C) down.
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  • #59,529
  • Mar 3, 2016 12:17pm Mar 3, 2016 12:17pm
if the 113 level holds we might have found a short to medium term bottom
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  • #59,530
  • Mar 3, 2016 6:51pm Mar 3, 2016 6:51pm
Quoting skyhok
Watching out for the downside - possible extended 5th of a larger wave (C) down. {image}
I think 1.06. WEEKLY 220 EMA.
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  • #59,531
  • Mar 3, 2016 8:23pm Mar 3, 2016 8:23pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} I think 1.06. WEEKLY 220 EMA.
You mean 106 ?

I've got 1st target for wave [1] @106.11, while the eventual target for the whole wave (C) is near the Fib cluster of 94-95 area.
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  • #59,532
  • Mar 3, 2016 9:08pm Mar 3, 2016 9:08pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
if the 113 level holds we might have found a short to medium term bottom
wont hold inflation is f*cked up world wide lokk at PMI : https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/704694328581558272
  • #59,533
  • Mar 3, 2016 9:19pm Mar 3, 2016 9:19pm
Quoting pbx06
{quote} wont hold inflation is f*cked up world wide lokk at PMI : https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/704694328581558272

Although Kuroda continues to show confidence that Japan will reach the inflation target, consumer prices are hovering near zero, with the governor mainly blaming that on the sharp decline in energy prices.

FROM:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-04/abe-nominates-makoto-sakurai-to-bank-of-japan-s-divided-board

When the f*cking printing press doesn't make inflation & doesn't make a WEAKER YEN & Monetary policy failling. BOJ & Centrall banks are lossing controls.
  • #59,534
  • Mar 3, 2016 9:25pm Mar 3, 2016 9:25pm
The BOJ surprised markets in January by adopting a negative rate strategy, aiming to drive yields down and stimulate lending and the economy. The move was intended to counter risks generated by volatile financial markets, falling oil prices and uncertainty over emerging nations like China, the bank said.
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  • #59,535
  • Mar 3, 2016 9:29pm Mar 3, 2016 9:29pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
if the 113 level holds we might have found a short to medium term bottom
go and gets your hand on it because market is inefficient and you can make a lot of money because you saw it

-9% since negative rate adoption. Market is stupid and dont know that USDJPY is a buy. Hurry before it get a lot more expensive. and buy more if it get more cheaper
  • #59,536
  • Mar 3, 2016 9:36pm Mar 3, 2016 9:36pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
if the 113 level holds we might have found a short to medium term bottom

Lower high and lower low is very bullish ? right ?
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  • #59,537
  • Mar 3, 2016 10:27pm Mar 3, 2016 10:27pm
Quoting pbx06
{quote} Lower high and lower low is very bullish ? right ? {image}
Yup, because this is the turning point. Following your logic, the downtrend must be going on forever, until the pair reaches 0. You can never spot the turning point this way and can always say "no need to go long, it´s lower lows and lower highs".
  • #59,538
  • Mar 4, 2016 1:29am Mar 4, 2016 1:29am
Quoting pbx06
When the printing press doesn't make inflation & doesn't make a WEAKER YEN & Monetary policy failling. BOJ & Central banks are losing controls.
I suspect that they don't fully understand the problem, and if they do they certainly don't know how to go about fixing it.
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  • #59,539
  • Mar 4, 2016 1:31am Mar 4, 2016 1:31am
Quoting pbx06
{quote} Lower high and lower low is very bullish ? right ? {image}
Why are angry
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  • #59,540
  • Mar 4, 2016 1:38am Mar 4, 2016 1:38am
I saw a trade and probably a short term bottom on this pair

And post my opinion and some start jumping all over you its not just this thread happened to me in the aussi thread 2 weeks ago and euro thread before that

What's gone wrong with FF and why do people get offended with differing views
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