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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #20,301
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:44am Mar 1, 2016 2:44am
Quoting stylinex
looks like DAX index/futures wil close around 9500 with a setup for 9700 next week. Let's see how this plays out. Unless something goes bad at G20 meeting and we tank on Monday
9700 around the corner..
  • #20,302
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:45am Mar 1, 2016 2:45am
Quoting stylinex
options expire at the end of the 3rd week of March. At the beginning of this year/quarter the DAX was just over 10,700 and then it hit a low of 8752 on February 11th. If you take the high and the low and want to get a close in the middle you would get roughly 9747.5 Take or give we should see 9700 hit easily before these options expire this quarter. Now if we turn bullish we continue to climb but if we remain bearish then we decline after hitting 9700-9800. This is my observation
This is playing out as I had thought it would
  • #20,303
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:53am Mar 1, 2016 2:53am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} G'day Jupiter, I trade with average SL of zero, I don't trade with them. This places extra pressure on my entries, to get them right, but I run lower risk levels. I may on occasions if the trade is say 20-30 pips in the red, but if I think the market is about to move in my direction, then I may scale additional entries in the same direction with the aim to close out the additional risk when all trades are at breakeven, and keep the original entry. If I think my position is totally wrong, and there is no need to risk additional positions,...
Thanks for your explanation. It makes a lot of sense. I like your style where you take small profits with frequent re-entries and after reaching your profit goal for the day you take time off. Good call on the up move. I was hesitant and too slow to get in and missed it. A common mistake of mine, I still work on my emotional side of me. I try to be more systematic in my approach(no EA involved though). If you have any tips or strategies of how to tame emotions please let me know.
  • #20,304
  • Mar 1, 2016 4:18am Mar 1, 2016 4:18am
Quoting jupiter13
{quote} Thanks for your explanation. It makes a lot of sense. I like your style where you take small profits with frequent re-entries and after reaching your profit goal for the day you take time off. Good call on the up move. I was hesitant and too slow to get in and missed it. A common mistake of mine, I still work on my emotional side of me. I try to be more systematic in my approach(no EA involved though). If you have any tips or strategies of how to tame emotions please let me know.
Hey Jupiter,

Emotions can be one of the hardest things to manage during trading. Its not been a major issue for me, but I found that whenever I traded high leverage in the past, I could make excellent money, but then I'd have one bad day, and it would wipe my profits for an extended period. I also found that the emotions would enter my trading judgment whenever it was high leverage trading, and this can be a bad thing, particularly when you become a "hope" trader rather than a tech/fund trader.

When I say, "hope" trader, I mean that's when your trades are negative, and you know they won't go positive based on the charts, but you continue to hold the position without realising a loss or hedging, and ultimately you take a very big loss. This is the main drawback and risk of trading without SLs, when you become a "hope" trader and ultimately suffer a large loss. Then there is the concept, known as the spiral of doom, when you revenge trade immediately after a losing trade with little analysis of the charts, with the hope of recouping the loss. This can further exacerbate your losses, and that's emotional trading is at its worst. After a loss, I recommend taking a break from the computer as a good way to recharge and look at the charts over again.

Trading within risk limits is lesson 101. So after many margin calls and expensive lessons in the past, I figured that I don't need to try and earn 500k-1m per annum, and that smaller profits daily was sufficient, so I dropped the risk limits down, and suddenly the emotional "hope trading" just dropped away. So in essence, think about the amount you can lose before you enter a trade, or at least have an idea of it to start with. If you want any other views, then PM me.
  • #20,305
  • Mar 1, 2016 5:30am Mar 1, 2016 5:30am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Hey Jupiter, Emotions can be one of the hardest things to manage during trading. Its not been a major issue for me, but I found that whenever I traded high leverage in the past, I could make excellent money, but then I'd have one bad day, and it would wipe my profits for an extended period.
You’ve just highlighted the main issue most unsuccessful traders have. How to tame emotions, when the stakes are very high. And as you said judgement will be clouded and all rules we have for a particular trade will go out of the window. Typical example is me, last Friday. My strategy was just 2-3trades in the morning and 2-3trades in the afternoon. I was profitable in the morning session but despite the profit I wanted to trade in the afternoon too. Big mistake, I had 3-4 consecutive losses at the US open and from there went downhill. As you said hope enters our reality and our systematic approach is out. However, one improvement I’ve made in the last few months is that I manage to control my loss for each trade. Where before I will let a trade go against me and hope that will come back to breakeven. At the end of the day I spent extra 8hours in front of my screen trying to recuperate the losses, end up with 40trades and a loss. The problem is that I keep making the same mistake all the time. Seems I can’t learn my lesson.

What I’m struggling with now is trading ranges. Because I use M1 charts(smaller risk) my signals are all over the place and losses accumulates. But is a process, I am sure that eventually I will figre something out.
  • #20,306
  • Mar 1, 2016 5:37am Mar 1, 2016 5:37am
Quoting jupiter13
{quote} Youve just highlighted the main issue most unsuccessful traders have. How to tame emotions, when the stakes are very high. And as you said judgement will be clouded and all rules we have for a particular trade will go out of the window. Typical example is me, last Friday. My strategy was just 2-3trades in the morning and 2-3trades in the afternoon. I was profitable in the morning session but despite the profit I wanted to trade in the afternoon too. Big mistake, I had 3-4 consecutive losses at the US open and from there went downhill. As...
Yes, totally understand. I often use at least two price charts of the Dax, one on 1m to help with entries and exits, and the second chart to confirm entry/exit and trends on alternating 2m and 5m TFs. Then I occasionally, I look at 1H, 4H and Daily TFs sporadically through the day to see if there is any impending supports/resistance that I need to be aware of. I also have price charts of EURUSD and Oil on separate charts, to see their price direction also.
  • #20,307
  • Mar 1, 2016 5:40am Mar 1, 2016 5:40am
Quoting jupiter13
{quote} Youve just highlighted the main issue most unsuccessful traders have. How to tame emotions, when the stakes are very high. And as you said judgement will be clouded and all rules we have for a particular trade will go out of the window. Typical example is me, last Friday. My strategy was just 2-3trades in the morning and 2-3trades in the afternoon. I was profitable in the morning session but despite the profit I wanted to trade in the afternoon too. Big mistake, I had 3-4 consecutive losses at the US open and from there went downhill. As...
As for trading ranges on an intra-day level, if its a sideways day, plot a Fib from Start of Pre-trade Hour to Now from the High and Low, and you may find that the Fibs are being respected as support/resistance on the day. Sometimes this helps too for trading within a "range". If that's what you mean by trading a range.
  • #20,308
  • Mar 1, 2016 5:46am Mar 1, 2016 5:46am
9666, of course... for it couldn't have been anything else.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #20,309
  • Mar 1, 2016 5:55am Mar 1, 2016 5:55am
Quoting stulic
9666, of course... for it couldn't have been anything else.
9777 is now highly likely this month as well before options expire. With oil making a run to 36 and Euro heading back towards 1.05 this is possible.
  • #20,310
  • Mar 1, 2016 6:02am Mar 1, 2016 6:02am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} 9777 is now highly likely this month as well before options expire. With oil making a run to 36 and Euro heading back towards 1.05 this is possible.
This month? Anything's possible
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30Monthly.png Size: 46 KB
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #20,311
  • Mar 1, 2016 6:18am Mar 1, 2016 6:18am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} As for trading ranges on an intra-day level, if its a sideways day, plot a Fib from Start of Pre-trade Hour to Now from the High and Low, and you may find that the Fibs are being respected as support/resistance on the day. Sometimes this helps too for trading within a "range". If that's what you mean by trading a range.
Thanks for the advise. I will look into it.
  • #20,312
  • Mar 1, 2016 6:21am Mar 1, 2016 6:21am
Whilst the next major SMA resistance is the 200SMA on Daily TF, which is @ 10,376pts; there is a major hurdle coming up, and we are very near it.

Its the current downtrend line since 1 Dec 2015, which is intersecting with inner uptrend line that has been in play since 2011. Refer to the chart.

If we clear this current major downtrend line with a conformation candle on Daily TF, then I think the next target is 200sma on Daily, as noted above. This would require, stability on Chinese Equities, no US rate hikes, further recovery in Oil price, favourable corporate earnings in Germany, and EUR to hold where it is or weaken.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dax30Now.png Size: 232 KB
  • #20,313
  • Mar 1, 2016 6:33am Mar 1, 2016 6:33am
Quoting stulic
{quote} This month? Anything's possible {image}
I agree as we are currently in a bearish trend for this year so far. For the quarterly (1st quarter that is) a retrace will take place first I reckon before the drop which I expect to take place after the retrace. I guess it depends on how you draw the line and what time frame bar you are looking at. Your line is valid though as I am bearish but very very short term I am bullish.
  • #20,314
  • Mar 1, 2016 7:13am Mar 1, 2016 7:13am
DAX, Short @ 9'640 (5x)
  • #20,315
  • Mar 1, 2016 7:17am Mar 1, 2016 7:17am
Quoting stylinex
I got 9408 now but can not buy yet. {image}
#20'295

Hi stylinex!
The spread seems very high.
What is the advantage of your broker that motivate you to accept this spread?
I know there're not many broker which seems okay.
FXcube
  • #20,316
  • Mar 1, 2016 7:24am Mar 1, 2016 7:24am
Quoting Forexcube
DAX, Short @ 9'640 (5x)
#20'315

Exit @ 9'610, +30 (x10 = 300)

DAX, M1, 2016 March 01
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX, M1, 2016 March 01.jpg Size: 70 KB
  • #20,317
  • Mar 1, 2016 7:42am Mar 1, 2016 7:42am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} #20'315 Exit @ 9'610, +30 (x10 = 300) DAX, M1, 2016 March 01 {image}
Well done. I also managed to catch the move but i had few losses in the range before it. Did you trade the range just before the drop?
  • #20,318
  • Mar 1, 2016 7:51am Mar 1, 2016 7:51am
Quoting jupiter13
{quote} Well done. I also managed to catch the move but i had few losses in the range before it. Did you trade the range just before the drop?
#20'318

Thank's!
No, I didn't have much time today.
FXcube
  • #20,319
  • Mar 1, 2016 10:31am Mar 1, 2016 10:31am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} #20'295 Hi stylinex! The spread seems very high. What is the advantage of your broker that motivate you to accept this spread? I know there're not many broker which seems okay. FXcube
That spread is not all that great. But market moves more then just a few pips these days lol.. I picked them because I liked their platform on the iPhone and iPad. They also have offices here in Asia. You know of someone with a better platform and pip rates? They said they would drop spread of balance was $50K or $100K
I did not feel like putting that much money in there to get a better pip spread.
  • #20,320
  • Mar 1, 2016 10:34am Mar 1, 2016 10:34am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} 9700 around the corner..
9700 now we will probably trade between 9700-9800 until options expire. If we clear 9800 and continue up then I reckon the bear trend has reversed into bull trend again. Will be risky to trade in this range. Probably best to stay out until opportunity opens up again. Those that got in this morning around 9440 should have made a killing today.
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