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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #59,501
  • Feb 24, 2016 9:39am Feb 24, 2016 9:39am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Hi please go and read Gator's posts , I'm still learning though ... cheers
Hi
I have read 100s if not thousands of Gators posts but still havnt managed to work out "norm", but Tx anyway.
Keep calm and trade on
  • #59,502
  • Feb 24, 2016 9:40am Feb 24, 2016 9:40am
Looking for a bounce off 110.9xx to go long for 113.055 and 114.176
Keep calm and trade on
  • #59,503
  • Feb 24, 2016 11:22am Feb 24, 2016 11:22am
The price may rise to the level of the previous wave (115 - 114), and then re-test the level of 111.000. But there is a possibility breaking through the level during the Asian session
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  • #59,504
  • Feb 24, 2016 1:52pm Feb 24, 2016 1:52pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} was wrong about date , however bulls got what they needed 112.0x is/was the normal retrace looking for bids without new daily LL for 115 ish
well not looking bullish however it couldn't make a LL was too close , still wanting 115 without LL , let's see ... 106 ish still valid , 110 phsco level ... with a break quick test of 110+- won'T be a surprise , sit tight , market is moving volatile and choppy ... gold made $31 move and came back to the lows uj almost 30 pips away from opening ... well will see last week of the month (monday is there also) monthly candles are the movers things need to fit in together ... dead cat on usdjpy wouldn't be surprise even with LL but who knows
cheers
  • #59,505
  • Feb 24, 2016 4:56pm Feb 24, 2016 4:56pm
Weekly Fed Watch NO RATES HIKES in 2016 stands firm.

No major change since the last week. The global situation has not improved and it is not showing any signs of recovery.
The monetary policy essence indicators are not showing any improvement either.
Inflation has not performed at all. With low oil prices I dont see this changing any time soon.
Average Earnings has ticked up a bit this month. The index printed 0.5% vs 0.3% expected. This is a good sign but nowhere near enough for FED to raise interest rates.
Employment came out as a big disappointment at 151K vs 189K expected. Big set back in expectation in February.
As WSJ says:
Fed officials including Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen have signalled in recent weeks a cautious stance amid recent market turmoil, tightening financial conditions and uncertain global growth and inflation outlook.
The above could be confirmed by Commitments of Traders reports, which suggest that big guys are running from dollar in a big way. Dollar longs have been cut drastically by non-commercial traders in recent weeks. The market does not believe the hype after Decembers hike crashed equities all over the place.
Looking at probabilities, they are slightly better than previous week but still very poor.



Based on below data, my prediction NO RATES HIKES IN 2016 stands firm.
March is priced in @ 8%. This is up from 2% previously
April is priced @ 18%. This is up from 11% previously
June is priced @ 25%. This is up from 14% previously
July is priced @ 27%. This is up from 14% previously
September is priced @ 32%. This is up from 26% previously
November is priced @ 33%. This is up from 31% previously.
December is priced @ 42%. This is up from 40% previously.
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HumbleTraders
  • #59,506
  • Feb 24, 2016 5:24pm Feb 24, 2016 5:24pm
Shorting from 112.20. Target 111.50. Fibo levels.
  • #59,507
  • Feb 24, 2016 5:59pm Feb 24, 2016 5:59pm
Quoting Dream_trader
Shorting from 112.20. Target 111.50. Fibo levels.
Have you seen the monthly on USDJPY? I find it really scary since it is one of the biggest drops in years and still at it lows as well. I predict some kind of bounce any day now. Back to the monthly pivot S2 at 113,800. If it hits today it will perfectly line up with the R3 pivot on the 5 minute pivot.
  • #59,508
  • Feb 24, 2016 6:17pm Feb 24, 2016 6:17pm
Quoting gfscapital
Weekly Fed Watch NO RATES HIKES in 2016 stands firm. No major change since the last week. The global situation has not improved and it is not showing any signs of recovery. The monetary policy essence indicators are not showing any improvement either. ...
End of the year is a long long way away.

But wtf is monetary policy essence indicators. Mr Google doesn't have a clue and I sure don't either.
  • #59,509
  • Feb 26, 2016 7:25am Feb 26, 2016 7:25am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} well not looking bullish however it couldn't make a LL was too close , still wanting 115 without LL , let's see ... 106 ish still valid , 110 phsco level ... with a break quick test of 110+- won'T be a surprise , sit tight , market is moving volatile and choppy ... gold made $31 move and came back to the lows uj almost 30 pips away from opening ... well will see last week of the month (monday is there also) monthly candles are the movers things need to fit in together ... dead cat on usdjpy wouldn't be surprise even with LL but who knows...
114.93 is a gimme , waiting for 112.01 to bid some for 115+
  • #59,510
  • Feb 26, 2016 9:26am Feb 26, 2016 9:26am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} 114.93 is a gimme , waiting for 112.01 to bid some for 115+
Will need to see a weaker YEN for that Nikkei to rise.
  • #59,511
  • Feb 26, 2016 9:27am Feb 26, 2016 9:27am
Quoting taciho
{quote} Have you seen the monthly on USDJPY? I find it really scary since it is one of the biggest drops in years and still at it lows as well. I predict some kind of bounce any day now. Back to the monthly pivot S2 at 113,800. If it hits today it will perfectly line up with the R3 pivot on the 5 minute pivot.
Just hit..
  • #59,512
  • Feb 28, 2016 12:45pm Feb 28, 2016 12:45pm
Hey all, this week's outlook is now live. Read it here: http://www.forexmademillionaire.com/...ook-2-28-2016/
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #59,513
  • Feb 28, 2016 1:34pm Feb 28, 2016 1:34pm
Is uj bull staging a come-back off the 111.00 level as oil went back above the 32.00 level?
NFP dues next week.
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If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #59,514
  • Feb 28, 2016 3:29pm Feb 28, 2016 3:29pm
Last week's Commitments of Traders - JPY -Japanese Yen Futures

USDJPY picked up some bids this week. It closed the week on a positive note, for the first time since Kuroda announced negative interest rates.
Bullish sentiment remains intact among Non-Commercial traders.
They added anothr 7.8K long contracts, this is after adding 8.7K longs in the previous week. At the same time, they increased shorts but only by half as much (3K).
The long Japanesse future continues to be a theme among Non-Commercial traders.
If this sentiment continues, the next logical support at 105 could be taken out sometime this year.
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HumbleTraders
  • #59,515
  • Feb 29, 2016 12:42am Feb 29, 2016 12:42am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} 114.93 is a gimme , waiting for 112.01 to bid some for 115+
getting closer to 112 at least it is lower than 113.9x ! for bids ...
  • #59,516
  • Feb 29, 2016 3:49pm Feb 29, 2016 3:49pm
Seem like UJ has lost uplift power....

Perhaps 111 is the next landing...
  • #59,517
  • Mar 1, 2016 6:36am Mar 1, 2016 6:36am
Resistance level affecting the price now. (located in the cloud) The decrease to 112.000 is likely. At the same time, we can see that the pair USD JPY is now at the stage of correction after the pulse down earlier this month.
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  • #59,518
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:43pm Mar 1, 2016 2:43pm
Hidden divergence shows we will move to 111,question is where to entry
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  • #59,519
  • Mar 2, 2016 12:05am Mar 2, 2016 12:05am
Japan needs more YEN depreciation. Let's see if we can hit 115-116
  • #59,520
  • Mar 2, 2016 2:25am Mar 2, 2016 2:25am
Bought USD/JPY when the price bounced of the resistance and the trend line. Targeting the 38.2 fib
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