EURUSD

It's not about your stops. It's your entries that need ajustment that one is in the middle of the noise

Looking at the monthly chart of EURUSD what do you guys think of the last candle ? is it a inverted hammer? do you guys think the market might reverse? I am not too good with candlesticks so just asking. Thanks

Some pretty craptacular US numbers and it didn't even glitch up 15 pip...0780 in plain sight.

Risk remains on the downside, next target would be around 1.0700 zone.

YEN BOOOOOM!!!!!

Yes an inverted hammer or shooting star. May bode well for shorts in the month ahead.

KP

I'm waiting now, coz reak of 1.0809 will bring retest of 1.0461/0517 support zone.

Hi Gator

112.12 is the middle of the red swing?
What about the orange swing? Don't we need to reach its mid also?

Weekly Risk Events

As every first week of the month the calendar if full of PMI and employment reports. All major crosses could be volatile but, it seems like AUD will get it all!
There is a number of heavy AUD releases throughout the week.
Cash rate and policy statement right after Chineses PMI on Tuesday
Australian GDP is out the very next day.
Trade balance will follow on Thursday morning.
Retail Sales m/m out on Friday.

Trading Highlights of the week:

Tuesday, March 1st @ 12:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m
Tuesday, March 1st @ 3:30am AUD Cash Rate and RBA Statement
Tuesday, March 1st @ 1:0am CNY Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, March 1st @ 1:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, March 1st @ 3:30am AUD Cash Rate and Monetary Statement
Tuesday, March 1st @ 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, March 1st @ 1:30pm CAD GDP m/m
Tuesday, March 1st @ Tentative: NZD GDT Price Index

Wednesday, March 2nd @ 12:30am AUD GDP q/q
Wednesday, March 2nd @ 9:30am GBP Construction PMI
Wednesday, March 2nd @ 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Thursday, March 3rd @ 12:30am AUD Trade Balance
Thursday, March 3rd @ 9:30am GBP Services PMI

Friday, March 4th @ 12:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m
Friday, March 4th @ 1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Friday, March 4th @ 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change

Tuesday

Tuesday, March 1st @ 12:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m
This is pretty important report. Potentially, it can be an Aussie mover. The market expects 2.9% vs positive 9.2% previously. This is a significant drop. Large, negative deviations (LOWER THAT 10%) could send AUD to the downside for the rest of the week.

Tuesday, March 1st @ 1:0am CNY Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, March 1st @ 1:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Both reports could add to AUD volatility on Tuesday. Manufacturing PMI is expected to print 49.4, compared to the same figure previously.
Caixin index is expected at slightly lower number 48.4 but also flat from prior report.
Deviations to the downside could affect stocks and commodity currencies across the board.


Tuesday, March 1st @ 3:30am AUD Cash Rate and RBA Statement
Cash rate is likely to remain unchanged. The market will be paying attention to the policy Statement. Relatively positive tone should provide some bids in AUD markets.
RBA shouldnt surprise the market by any negative comments regarding the future Monetary policy. Data has been quite optimistic. Good employment and expenditure numbers are reasons to believe that RBA is rather hawkish at this stage.

Tuesday, March 1st @ 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI
PMI is expected to print 52.3, down from the previous 52.9. Any lower print will add to the negative sentiment in GBP. If this report will show an improvement, I would expect Brexit sentiment to prevail anyway. Seems like GBP is bearish right till June.
Tuesday, March 1st @ Tentative: NZD GDT Price Index
This is one of the most important pieces of data for NZD. The GDT index has been pressured and according to experts, it is expected to be negative once more. If so, this report has a massive potential to move the NZD to the downside.

Wednesday
Wednesday, March 2nd @ 12:30am AUD GDP q/q
The market expects 0.5%, down from 0.9% previously. This is a significant drop in expectations. This report will affect AUD prices only if the released figure will be in line with the market sentiment. If Tuesday's data is bad, poor GDP will add to bearishness.
Wednesday, March 2nd @ 9:30am GBP Construction PMI
Similar to the Manufacturing PMI, Construction PMI will be read in context of the previous data. Bearish sentiment prevails in GBP markets. Any positive print will provide opportunities to short GBP.
Wednesday, March 2nd @ 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
This is a good indication of Fridays NFP report. Market is expecting 185K vs 205K prior.
I expect this pattern to feed into NFP on Friday.

Thursday
Thursday, March 3rd @ 12:30am AUD Trade Balance
The market expects a negative 3.22B, down from 3.54B prior. Again, this will follow the data released up to now. A negative deviation can add to the bearishness in this market.

Thursday, March 3rd @ 9:30am GBP Services PMI
Another piece of UK data that is expected to be negative. Market predicts 55.1, compared to 55.6 prior. Negative deviations, again will send GBP towards multiyear support.
Friday
Friday, March 4th @ 12:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m
Yet another report from down below. Retails Sales are expected to be a positive 0.4%.
This is up from 0% previously. I dont expect this report to have any major impact on the currency so late in the week.

Friday, March 4th @ 1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Friday, March 4th @ 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change
Probably two most important elements of the monetary policy. Wage inflation and employment are watched very closely by FED these days. Earnings had a good run previously and printed 0.5%. This time around, the market expects 0.2%.
NFP is expected to show 195K in employment vs 151K previously.
These two reports can go either way but I would recommend to look out for Earnings figure rather than NFP. It has had a much greater impact on prices lately.

what system you use for entries? how are you trading?

Week Ahead: USD
Over recent weeks the market has been gradually increasing its expectations for the Fed to hike rates during 2016. Just 2 weeks ago markets had almost completely priced out any chance of the Fed being able to hike rates this year, however the latest US data points to inflation likely rising quicker than the market had expected, with the latest releases for CPI and PCE beating market expectations and breaking yearly records, expectations for the Fed to hike in 2016 has now increased to almost 60%. The market will be looking for US data this week to continue supporting rate hike expectations with this weeks highlight being Friday's Non-Farm Payroll and Average Hourly Earnings.
Jobs report:

1. The U.S. job market has been a solid performer for the last two years. Hiring has slowed somewhat since the start of the year but the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.9%. Participation in the labor force continued to increase in January and wage growth beat estimates at 0.5%.

Manufacturing:

1. The economy’s weakest sector in recent months has been the factory sector. The Institute for Supply Management’s closely watched gauge of manufacturing activity for February is due out Tuesday. It has declined now for four straight months. In addition,Thursday see's the release of factory orders during January.

Services:

1. Manufacturing only accounts for about 12% of U.S. economic output and the far-larger services sector has proven more resilient in recent months. With that said, the ISM’s nonmanufacturing gauge suggested activity decelerated in January and the Markit Economics flash services purchasing-managers index fell into contraction territory in February for the first time since October 2013. That puts an extra focus Thursday on the ISM services gauge for February.

it was rhetorical

I think he use da MA crossover + MACD filter

lol

Patience is a key....I told its not time for short at that moment

complaining about US numbers wont help. compared to other countries' numbers, is there any economy/currency that is stronger? it's all relative.
if crude hits 35 or even before then, stocks will rally like hell
USD/JPY has already recovered all of that 50p drop this morning which now was obviously a big player fishing for the bottom.

disclosure: as of this posting, currently short EUR/USD

Looks like it may do an OR of 70 - 00 even better entries above 9even

[quote=Beli;8785005]{quote} Patience is a key....I told its not time for short at that moment[/qu
Right here 1.0890 is a decent level for short
Potential profit of 70-80 pips

Pending SHORT
Cancelled

Good Morning !

Today's SR levels on MT4 Templates for EURO, CABLE, DAX, USDJPY & EURGBP

momentum a bit flat now, hope the down trend continues as i am still short

EU starting to drop~!!