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Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

  • #4,261
  • Feb 26, 2016 7:22pm Feb 26, 2016 7:22pm
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} all gbp pairs will be carney bullish for one last run before it's demise
Hey G!

You made it out of bed, we are so proud of Canada! Oh Canada!

Carney is a dope, but that is what I am expecting.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #4,262
  • Feb 27, 2016 4:14am Feb 27, 2016 4:14am
Hi Mr. Scott, do you follow CADJPY? Would be posible to have your view on this pair?
Much appreciated, small and bigger picture if that's ok.
Thank you!
  • #4,263
  • Feb 27, 2016 5:54am Feb 27, 2016 5:54am
Quoting Rcubic
Hi Mr. Scott, do you follow CADJPY? Would be posible to have your view on this pair? Much appreciated, small and bigger picture if that's ok. Thank you!
Hi Rcubic,

Can't say so, but took a look. Shame could have helped with timing of long CAD. CAD is tricky one, she so strong, look she have rejection/strength on many. But she can still go down and not change anything....Think UCAd is around here.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #4,264
  • Feb 27, 2016 5:59am Feb 27, 2016 5:59am
UCAD looking have similar, look CAD pairs weekly/monthly candles, e.g. ECAD.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #4,265
  • Feb 27, 2016 6:01am Feb 27, 2016 6:01am
Almost forgot, raising rates = inflation, brought it up, maybe Squawk will like it. Start here and continue on links....

http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/20...-or-lower.html
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #4,266
  • Feb 27, 2016 12:23pm Feb 27, 2016 12:23pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Almost forgot, raising rates = inflation, brought it up, maybe Squawk will like it. Start here and continue on links.... http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/20...-or-lower.html
Thanks Scott, are the models broken???

Like this interviews 1. Jim Rickards, "Rickards, McCullough Unplugged on Fed, USD, Economy & More" (5/9/2014)

Worth a watch if you have some time. There are a couple of other good ones there as well.
  • #4,267
  • Feb 27, 2016 12:25pm Feb 27, 2016 12:25pm
ZAR again looking interesting after sharp thin pullback.
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  • #4,268
  • Feb 27, 2016 2:23pm Feb 27, 2016 2:23pm
Although I think we have seem the top of U/C for now the possibility of BC leg is there when price drives into support and sets up, retesting before further down. If Oil has not yet hit the floor then you would think we are looking at the perfect place to short crude again if price action presents and a retest of UC.

Interesting call from Abu Dhabi's biggest bank and an interview with Chakib Khelil (former OPEC president) who thinks we have reached stabilization though.

Just some point of views although I still remain long CAD NC and EC but cautiously now until we get a retest.

Then again if Crude trades start covering shorts??
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  • #4,269
  • Feb 27, 2016 2:27pm Feb 27, 2016 2:27pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Almost forgot, raising rates = inflation, brought it up, maybe Squawk will like it. Start here and continue on links.... http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/20...-or-lower.html
Expansion of 2 year debt story.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...amental-anchor
  • #4,270
  • Feb 27, 2016 2:35pm Feb 27, 2016 2:35pm
Quoting squawk
Caught some nice moves in the ZAR and MXN. MXN tightly correlated to Crude but obviously helped with the surprise decision to raise rates by Mex Bank. Emerging markets seem to be unwinding nicely with Interest rates increase by the Fed being priced out of the market. Shorting the emerging markets does not seem so appealing now. {image} {image}
MXN another with possible retrace if Crude falls again.
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  • #4,271
  • Feb 27, 2016 2:36pm Feb 27, 2016 2:36pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Thanks Scott, are the models broken??? Like this interviews 1. Jim Rickards, "Rickards, McCullough Unplugged on Fed, USD, Economy & More" (5/9/2014) Worth a watch if you have some time. There are a couple of other good ones there as well.

Thanks Squawk. :nerd:
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #4,272
  • Feb 27, 2016 2:39pm Feb 27, 2016 2:39pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} I think we are thinking around the same area for a setup. {image}
Are we there yet Scott? I think just a little lower based on Cable weakness still and NU spiking into consolidation area. Just waiting on this one still but it is bidding.
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  • #4,273
  • Feb 27, 2016 2:50pm Feb 27, 2016 2:50pm
Quoting squawk
ZAR again looking interesting after sharp thin pullback. {image} {image} {image}
Hi Squawk,
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #4,274
  • Feb 27, 2016 2:52pm Feb 27, 2016 2:52pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Are we there yet Scott? I think just a little lower based on Cable weakness still and NU spiking into consolidation area. Just waiting on this one still but it is bidding. {image}

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #4,275
  • Feb 27, 2016 5:39pm Feb 27, 2016 5:39pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi Squawk, {image}
Just out playing tennis with my son. Looks good Scott..
  • #4,276
  • Feb 28, 2016 12:47pm Feb 28, 2016 12:47pm
US market still smells of denial, don't panic phase. Maybe a good time to invest in a good inverse, index ETF.
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  • #4,277
  • Feb 28, 2016 12:50pm Feb 28, 2016 12:50pm
Quoting squawk
Some good charts Scott. Idea possible USDCNH. {image}
The vice-governor of China's central bank on Sunday deflected concerns over the possibility of an extended fall in the country's foreign exchange reserves and reaffirmed confidence in the strength of the Yuan. China still owns the world's largest currency reserves but has been burning through them at such a pace that some economists and foreign exchange professionals have been questioning how low can they go before Beijing is forced to choose between fresh capital controls or giving upselling dollars to defend the yuan, also known as the renminbi. Foreign exchange reserves in China declined by $99.5 billion in January to $3.23

Enter SOROS???

(Reuters)
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  • #4,278
  • Feb 28, 2016 1:11pm Feb 28, 2016 1:11pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Ok this chart have problem and yes there are bigger ones at play which are hinted at, but two patterns meet at the exact same place. Just sayin' {image}
Hi Scott, been watching this as well and everything lines up but with no bids at the moment just looks like it will test the lows unless some news comes in.
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  • #4,279
  • Feb 28, 2016 1:25pm Feb 28, 2016 1:25pm
Quoting sniperdebt
{quote} Scott, scary on cable BRexit & Interest rate could be drive cable, interest rate expected late 2016 @ early 2017 {quote} {image}

After 1 month
  • #4,280
  • Edited 1:54pm Feb 28, 2016 1:33pm | Edited 1:54pm
Quoting squawk
EC another long term set pattern. Lot of pips here if the Euro gives up some and folds. {image} {image}
Nice trade this one. Anyone else trade this setup? Still holding but more cautious of a pullback now.
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