USD/CAD

I've been calling for shorts for weeks on USD/CAD and been making money on the short side. I've outlined my thoughts for this week in my weekly outlook here:

http://www.forexmademillionaire.com/...ook-2-21-2016/

money to be made to the downside I think

Oil has made good gains all day and this pair has steadfastly refused to break down. I'm short with trades slightly above and below current price....even on average. The pair seems to have decoupled from oil, but with recent weakness and oil rising all day I expected at least a downward dip. Any thoughts on current PA?

The pair will probably continue to the downside to test the support at 1.3640 again.

Exactly my thoughts James. Have already taken a little profit and have sell pending at 1.366. Will hold some to see if it breaks lower.

Yes, Blackopal, I too bear on USDCAD.

Lastest news says Venezuela is looking to get a deal done these days, and looking to boost oil 10-15 per barrel. If the deal is reached, we should be a leg down on USDCAD.

USDCAD 2/16

Attached Image

USDCAD 2/22


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Hey just sitting on my short at 1.3740 and was anyones thoughts on direction? I feel its still going to go lower but wanted to get a feel from other? Thanks for any reply currently its sitting at 1.3709 i wanted to get out at 1.3669 but missed it!!!!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...10#post8765610

hi guys ı bought 1.3660 and my is 1.3760 but still 1.3730 ı think price will hit the top line then go down

So much about the pair reaching 1.3640 as it couldn't even break below 1.3660 before it started climbing again. Next resistance is at 1.3870, but I think it's a little too late for me to open longs now.

OIL is at $32, news wasn't good except Home Sales out of the US but it climbs to 1.3821??? Is there something I missed?

babby oil

resistance abc

usdcad failed to make LL (daily/weekly) it has valid target of 1.43 ish without LL , sh't happens ....

Isnt 3.5M barrels per day bad for CAD? why is CAD gaining on these numbers?

Weekly Fed Watch – NO RATES HIKES in 2016 stands firm.

No major change since the last week. The global situation has not improved and it is not showing any signs of recovery.
The monetary policy essence indicators are not showing any improvement either.
Inflation has not performed at all. With low oil prices I dont see this changing any time soon.
Average Earnings has ticked up a bit this month. The index printed 0.5% vs 0.3% expected. This is a good sign but nowhere near enough for FED to raise interest rates.
Employment came out as a big disappointment at 151K vs 189K expected. Big set back in expectation in February.
As WSJ says:
Fed officials including Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen have signalled in recent weeks a cautious stance amid recent market turmoil, tightening financial conditions and uncertain global growth and inflation outlook.
The above could be confirmed by Commitments of Traders reports, which suggest that big guys are running from dollar in a big way. Dollar longs have been cut drastically by non-commercial traders in recent weeks. The market does not believe the hype after Decembers hike crashed equities all over the place.
Looking at probabilities, they are slightly better than previous week but still very poor.



Based on below data, my prediction NO RATES HIKES IN 2016 stands firm.
March is priced in @ 8%. This is up from 2% previously
April is priced @ 18%. This is up from 11% previously
June is priced @ 25%. This is up from 14% previously
July is priced @ 27%. This is up from 14% previously
September is priced @ 32%. This is up from 26% previously
November is priced @ 33%. This is up from 31% previously.
December is priced @ 42%. This is up from 40% previously.

With an ending diagonal that ends a pattern, USDCAD is finding new low - while watching out for the upside.

A breakdown of 1.36 would open the way for a lot of pips to be made.

Absolutely, it's not going up and all signals are down........ unless I sell it of course

Looking for sell . It has great potential to drop deep. If the price continue it's decline then thatis the entry I would take. Aggresive risk management is necessary due to proximity of recent demand zone :