Commit to the Trade

continued, we see price worked within the last WRB top and bottom. The first bar after the WRB closed up, inside the WRB, indicating retracement price action to follow.

sjc

Trading the AUD live

A top down approach

Trading the AUD live



I took my entry on the 1M at the pink arrow

Trading the AUD live




So technically we should be taking profit here at the 15 M based on a Wide Range Candle associated with High Relative Volume.
We also have major Support Resistance overhead. I have opted to stay in the trade to see if we can get some follow through from the overhead Resistance.

will see

TSD

Trading the AUD live




If we step back down to our original entry chart 1M we also see Supply. See how the Volume ( activity ) were it was created ??

TSD

Trading the AUD live




We now have price "stuck" between Supply and and SR line...its a wait and see?

TSD

Trading the AUD live



We did get some rollover to the down side.. Moving nicely back in our direction. Bit we have the 15M Demand out in front. Might be bumpy


TSD

Trading the AUD live



Price rolled back up and tested the Resistance line. Will it hold for the follow through??

TSD

Trading the AUD live



Resistance is still holding.

TSD

Trading the AUD live




Tough little Resistance level we have here. But what is important is Supply overhead. The Price / Volume relationship dictates this area. If we break north of this supply I will exit the trade. Will see??

TSD

hi traderinSD, what's the reason to enter on the pink arrow? M15 had a nice pin bar

Trading the AUD live




We have now entered back into Supply on reasonably good Volume.. Now we wait to see if we get the turn back south ?

TSD

I was trading looking at the 1M when I took the trade. You could have taken this short on the PIN

TSD

Trading the AUD live




Patience

TSD

Trading the AUD live



And its another run for the roses. Can we get some follow through ??

TSD

Trading the AUD live



We exited for 8 pips

Next

TSD

Volume = Activity in Supply Demand



Here are examples of Relative Volume/Activity as I see the Price Volume/Activity relationship. IMHO - Volume in Forex is not absolute but it is relative.

1) WRC ( Wide Range Candle ) left an area of relatively low volume and small candles.
2) A second WRC takes place creating potentially a Rise-Base-Rise pattern. We wont know till price returns if this will be a valid level but looking at Volume #1 vs. Volume #2 the opportunity exists.
3) Price returns to Demand Level #2 on good volume and we get a PIN candle. So our Rise-Base-Rise pattern held.
4) 3 and 4 create another Rise- Base-Rise pattern but again we do not know if Demand will hold until price returns.
5) Price come back into Demand on the Rise- Base-Rise pattern. Relative Volume is higher than the preceding Relative Volume. We see price do what we would expect
6) Price returns to a Demand level that has been use once already. Volume is good but not great.. relative to how Volume has been previous at levels previously.
7) Price has returned to Demand #1 with a WRC and on Higher Relative Volume.

TSD

EUR Demand Set Up



If we are able to get long from Demand our target will be the SR Line at Supply.

See how price came into this level in this Time Frame. Volume was very good but lower in Relative terms. So what looks to be a Drop-Base-Drop may not really be that strong. Will price have trouble getting through this area, I think so. There is a SR level associated with this area.

For me its the Volume / Activity that helps me define what price may do.

Will see what happens next week

TSD

Supply Demand - Support Resistance - Volume = ( activity )



1) We have a WRC ( wide range candle ) accompanied by High Relative Volume. As price progressed downward we see other WRC's but nothing really compares to #1. This is a really OBVIOUS example. It's location and Volume.

2) The Support Resistance line in yellow. See how price broke through this area strongly. Now at the time this happened we only know that it was a strong break of support. It also created a Drop - Base - Drop Supply Demand pattern...But look at the volume.. There is no High Relative Volume so from a SD standpoint, not something we would look at to trade using Supply Demand.

Price progresses we see price retracing back up quickly confirming this is a SR level... How significant?... We do not know yet. What is important is how price breaks the SR level. In this case, we see it broke pretty good so we take note and draw an SR line. ( the stronger price break a SR level the more important it becomes ). As we follow price we see a Demand level set up on High Relative Volume so we mark it. NOTICE !!! -- price really broke through the SR line above that we drew earlier. We continue to follow price noticing how price is retesting the SR line. This tells us this is an important line.. How important..?? We don't know but we are aware. we will look for PA to develop and we will act accordingly.

3) We see price break the SR line to the downside but not really that strongly But then !!! Price turns and breaks back up above our SR Line on High Relative Volume. This creates an interim Demand level we need to be aware of. Why.. There is a SD pattern associated with a SR level. For my money this is an area I will be looking to trade from if possible.

4) Look at the Volume spike. See how price touched the Demand Level we just created a few bars earlier. NOTE: High Volume " Smart Money " with SRC ( small range candle ) = indecision. What do know is that this Demand level held, as well as out SR level.. Important.

We see another attempt as price re enters slightly deeper on good volume. For the aggressive trader this would be a good place to get long. Why?? You have an established Demand Level. You have touch on very high volume - aggressive entry ( we always want to see high volume when price enters a SD level ). We see a second attempt just a bit lower on again.. good volume.. Price close well off its lows on that candle and above the SR line AGAIN !!! Do you think this SR line is important ?? Absolutely !! Next stop .. Supply overhead.

When we see this type of price action moving around SR and SD levels .. for me .. price is head back up to Supply.. Price is hold around SD and SR.

5) Price enters Supply on High Relative Volume. You could have entered on the first touch with you stop on the top side of the Supply Level. You could hunt for a PIN Candle this TF or step down in TF. You could even wait for an engulfing candle to confirm as we see here. The point: lots of ways to get in. In most cases the Stop would have been on the top side of Supply and you have entered a good trade.

Now you have to asked yourself.. If I'm in this trade short..Where is my target???? I think that would be pretty obvious. Somewhere around the SR below

Peaces to the puzzle

TSD

Trading the AUD Live



Took this short scalp on the 1M . Just too sweet of a set up to pass up. The down side is the spread at roughly 2.5.



As we see we are right there but again the spread is a challenge when scalping.

Will see??

TSD