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  • #1,058,001
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:02pm Feb 22, 2016 1:02pm
I'm way late to the party today. Development stuff has me bogged down at the moment but I got a LOT done this weekend... If you can consider a single line of code to mean "a lot". I'm still occasionally tripped up by the move to build 600 by MT4 all those months ago. Anyways... we FINALLY got the break-out. My volatility forecast looked like it was going to rupture its spleen, had been in "break-out" mode for almost a week. Usually that stuff plays out in 48 hours or so. Most of my stuff is favoring a retracement in the E/U once the momentum subsides. Still in the early stages of those signals, could be a few days out.
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When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #1,058,002
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:32pm Feb 22, 2016 1:32pm
Quoting krishelis
From longer term perspective I am still holding my longs till 1.1306, i will open more at 1.0950
While i agree with .0960 as a target, I'm dubious about going up that much. Maybe, but in far future....

Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} Good job !! I'm short as always. Will see tomorrow. On the other hand i recalibrated my model, points at 1.1020 target price...
Sure took a week, but here we are Need more shorts.
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,058,003
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:58pm Feb 22, 2016 1:58pm
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} I know what you meant don't worry
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #1,058,004
  • Feb 22, 2016 2:15pm Feb 22, 2016 2:15pm
Going up
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  • #1,058,005
  • Feb 22, 2016 2:23pm Feb 22, 2016 2:23pm
Se you tomorrow guys.

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  • #1,058,006
  • Feb 22, 2016 2:32pm Feb 22, 2016 2:32pm
the sell is only a sclap ... in H4 on the spot 61.8% Fibu ... might go long soon :-) at least for a while :-)
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  • #1,058,007
  • Feb 22, 2016 2:33pm Feb 22, 2016 2:33pm
I went short at .1164 with target at .0954.
In a long term i think that we are in a Range. What do u think?
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  • #1,058,008
  • Feb 22, 2016 2:43pm Feb 22, 2016 2:43pm
Quoting Dalchow
the sell is only a sclap ... in H4 on the spot 61.8% Fibu ... might go long soon :-) at least for a while :-) {image}
i normally wouldn't make fun of beginners, but this is hilarious!!! This Fibo - neither the location of it (left), neither the highest point, and least of all the end of the wave (a 100) is correct.... What are you showing?? Get it in your head that ONE yes ONE Fibo must show both retrace and extension. Otherwise is just sad.

well that's my two cents, ever.
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,058,009
  • Feb 22, 2016 2:54pm Feb 22, 2016 2:54pm
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} i normally wouldn't make fun of beginners, but this is hilarious!!! This Fibo - neither the location of it (left), neither the highest point, and least of all the end of the wave (a 100) is correct.... What are you showing?? Get it in your head that ONE yes ONE Fibo must show both retrace and extension. Otherwise is just sad. well that's my two cents, ever.
I think he meant fibo retracement level - 1.1006. It's the 61.8% retracement level of the latest swing from 1.0777 to 1.1376. It is an important level just like 1.1077 was/is.
  • #1,058,010
  • Feb 22, 2016 2:54pm Feb 22, 2016 2:54pm
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} i normally wouldn't make fun of beginners
make fun, i like fun :-) but don΄t see where you get the info that I am beginner :-) where i define a start end and position of a Fib is up to me or do you have written any rule about this hihi ... this is just one screenshot not showing everything but heyho there are so many wise people here i guess just having published on this topics and being in the game for more than 20 years now makes me a real beginner in this circles ... hihi
  • #1,058,011
  • Feb 22, 2016 3:07pm Feb 22, 2016 3:07pm
Connors got it ... sorry should explain maybe a bit better was ie meant ... but thought it was self explaining (and yeah sorry for my bad english but this is not my first language :-)
  • #1,058,012
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:07pm Feb 22, 2016 4:07pm
Quoting Connors
Took a long again @1.1010, SL @1.0970, my last long attempt for the day.

Still alive and the trade is on but I think this is a terrible close for any optimistic EUR bulls. I'd very much like to hear what senior/experienced traders think. 61.8% retracement held but it is ridiculusly close to taking it, the bounce is really not giving much hope. When I look at the 4H chart, it feels like it made its decision to go below 1.10 if not 1.0900. I actually dont know why I am fighting it at the moment.

Anyway, the sl is there. Good night.
  • #1,058,013
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:13pm Feb 22, 2016 4:13pm
Same here ... just short smal positions ... mostly sitting on the sideline at the moment ... waiting for a signal ... or for bedtime :-)
  • #1,058,014
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:24pm Feb 22, 2016 4:24pm
Quoting Connors
{quote} Still alive and the trade is on but I think this is a terrible close for any optimistic EUR bulls. I'd very much like to hear what senior/experienced traders think. 61.8% retracement held but it is ridiculusly close to taking it, the bounce is really not giving much hope. When I look at the 4H chart, it feels like it made its decision to go below 1.10 if not 1.0900. I actually dont know why I am fighting it at the moment. Anyway, the sl is there. Good night.
We gunna get a bounce soon I think EURUSD long is a hard trade in general as the macro themes usually backing EURUSD long are along the lines of risk aversion and you get the sharp quick up thrusts. Its like trying to short equities, very difficult to do. But I think according to my historical testing we should be getting a correction sometime soon. Doesn't mean it cant have another leg down but we are getting into the territory where I am building long position.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #1,058,015
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:52pm Feb 22, 2016 4:52pm
Quoting Connors
{quote} Still alive and the trade is on but I think this is a terrible close for any optimistic EUR bulls. I'd very much like to hear what senior/experienced traders think. 61.8% retracement held but it is ridiculusly close to taking it, the bounce is really not giving much hope. When I look at the 4H chart, it feels like it made its decision to go below 1.10 if not 1.0900. I actually dont know why I am fighting it at the moment. Anyway, the sl is there. Good night.
Hi man, i respect your posts, and RTM's so wanted to say it.
on the other hand you seem to be using waves and hopes and expectations. I can't help with long term forecasts, and neither with Elliott waves.....I spent much time drawing waves and losing money.... Now i look at news and fundamental. I might be wrong but now i see it down to about 1.0960..... Ask tomorrow and i might have other numbers. Forget the longs, man, maximim up to that confluence zone.
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,058,016
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:59pm Feb 22, 2016 4:59pm
My weekly risk Calendar:
Seem like thursday is the day!

I highly recommend saving the below events into your google calendar as a part of weekly routine.
Please see further analysis below. It includes Tuesday to Friday trading sessions.


Very light week ahead of us in Forex markets. There are almost no high impact events happening. I guess, all data will be skewed by the situation in UK. So called Brexit caused a massive gap on Cable this morning and volatility is expected for the rest of the week in GBP pairs.

Trading Highlights of the week:
Tuesday, Feb 23th,2016 @ 11:15am – CHF – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
Tuesday, Feb 23th,2016 @ 3:00pm – USD – CB Consumer Confidence
Thursday, Feb 25th,2016 @ 12:30am – AUD – Private Capital Expenditure q/q
Thursday, Feb 25th,2016 @ 9:30am – GBP – Second Estimate GDP q/q
Thursday, Feb 25th,2016 @ 1:30pm -USD – Unemployment Claims
Thursday, Feb 25th,2016 @ 11:30pm -JPY – Tokyo Core CPI y/y
Friday, Feb 26th,2016 @ 1:30pm – USD – Prelim GDP q/q

Tuesday
Tuesday, Feb 23th,2016 @ 11:15am – CHF – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
Swiss Central Banks has a tendency to surprise the markets. They did come out few times before with a total shock but this time Jordan’s statement should have no echo. They have been saying that the Swiss currency is overvalued many times before and will probably say it again tomorrow. This stance is expected from the markets hence this event will have low impact on the prices.

Thursday
Thursday, Feb 25th,2016 @ 12:30am – AUD – Private Capital Expenditure q/q
It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their investment levels. It can be an early signal of future economic activity such as hiring, spending, and earnings.
Expenditure is expected to print a negative 3% vs a negative 9.23% previously.
Deviation in both directions can affect AUD pairs.
Thursday, Feb 25th,2016 @ 9:30am – GBP – Second Estimate GDP q/q
This could be a market mover indeed. Two important reports are out at the same time. Second estimate GDP q/q is expected to come out flat at 0.5% Prelim Business Investment q/q is expected at 0.6% vs much stronger 2.2% prior. Any positive number is good for UK economy and might spark GBP buying. This could be supported by the current double bottom printed in Cable this week.
Thursday, Feb 25th,2016 @ 11:30pm -JPY – Tokyo Core CPI y/y
Another potential market mover. As inflation is in the spotlight, JPY CPI will be closely watched by traders. The report is expected to come out at 0%, compared to negative 0.1% prior. Less than 0% is a technical deflation so any positive number will be a good news.

Friday
Friday, Feb 26th,2016 @ 1:30pm – USD – Prelim GDP q/q
Market expects this report to print 0.5% vs 0.7% Any deviations from expectation can move USD pairs across the board. Market would like to see higher GDP. This would increase the odds of FED raising interest rates this year. Personally I don’t think this is the case.
HumbleTraders
  • #1,058,017
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:31pm Feb 22, 2016 5:31pm
Quoting gfscapital
My weekly risk Calendar: Seem like thursday is the day! I highly recommend saving the below events into your google calendar as a part of weekly routine. Please see further analysis below. It includes Tuesday to Friday trading sessions. Very light week ahead of us in Forex markets. There are almost no high impact events happening. I guess, all data will be skewed by the situation in UK. So called Brexit caused a massive gap on Cable this morning and volatility is expected for the rest of the week in GBP pairs. Trading Highlights of the week: Tuesday,...
It's very helpful, thanks.
  • #1,058,018
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:38pm Feb 22, 2016 5:38pm
eu 4h
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  • #1,058,019
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:48pm Feb 22, 2016 5:48pm
Today made a trade 3x larger than my largest ever position. I figured what the hell, this is ultra high probability, and I'm up huge for the month let's give it a try. The risk reward was poor but that's because I didn't want to be stopped out by a few ticks then watch it go to profit. Could have lost 110k if I was stopped. One of these days I will try this on a trade that can target 100 points, equivalent to 500 pips in EURUSD ($1 million profit with this position size).

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TFxMRLf2FBs
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,058,020
  • Feb 22, 2016 6:15pm Feb 22, 2016 6:15pm
Hoping uj helps push eu up a little here.
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