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Forex Made Millionaire Thread for Blog Swing Trades

  • #1,201
  • Feb 22, 2016 11:27am Feb 22, 2016 11:27am
Quoting Lsmft
{quote} Hey Geppy, do you have a fixed risk (in terms of how much of your account in percentage do you risk) per trade?
Generally, no. Once my account is larger I may start putting rules like that in place but right now I've just putting the pedal to the metal.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #1,202
  • Feb 22, 2016 11:27am Feb 22, 2016 11:27am
Quoting Geppy
Hey, all. Things are looking decent. I like the further decline in USD/CAD, but I will not be adding to my shorts. There's just not enough meat on the bone when we're only targeting the 1.3600 zone. No point in putting on more risk for such little reward. I've added a bit to my shorts in both GBP/USD and GBP/JPY but not adding yet in USD/JPY. I'd like to see it give up some ground before I start piling more on there.
I agree with UC but kindly consider the following about GU and GJ.
The sterling has lost almost 3 big points from last close. It tested the last daily bottom and rebounded by more than a full big point. Don't u think it has a bullish stamina at least for the short term?

the same applies to GJ specially with UJ daily reversal ?
  • #1,203
  • Feb 22, 2016 11:30am Feb 22, 2016 11:30am
I think I'll wait for it to retrace to ~4180, then short it again if h1 shows signs of exhaustion. Seems resonable as it's the area of a trendline Geppy drew in his blog charts also it's a support area from mid-january, so it might hold.
  • #1,204
  • Feb 22, 2016 11:34am Feb 22, 2016 11:34am
Good work Geepy. More blessings. I just started live on a micro account last week and no lost so far. i dont think i have enough confidence yet to post charts here yet based on my analysis. meanwhile i still gained more confidence through your analysis. I will try to invite some exceptional trader that inspired me here. i hope they join also. Together we can soar high.
  • #1,205
  • Feb 22, 2016 11:39am Feb 22, 2016 11:39am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Generally, no. Once my account is larger I may start putting rules like that in place but right now I've just putting the pedal to the metal.
Okay. Thanks. I had to ask so I can look at your trades from your total perspective and levels of aggression. Once you get to a sizable account, feel free to ask and I can help you sort out proper risk management.
L.S./M.F.T.
  • #1,206
  • Feb 22, 2016 11:41am Feb 22, 2016 11:41am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I've said it before, but adding to positions is more art than science. So it's mostly experience and ability to read price action. The best way to learn is to start doing it but if you're new to it only add with very small amounts in relation to your original size. Once you figure out to do it you can make huge gains.
OK thanks, i was wondering if to add positions it is important also to check smaller time frame.

Syl
  • #1,207
  • Feb 22, 2016 12:28pm Feb 22, 2016 12:28pm
Quoting Forex147
{quote} I agree with UC but kindly consider the following about GU and GJ. The sterling has lost almost 3 big points from last close. It tested the last daily bottom and rebounded by more than a full big point. Don't u think it has a bullish stamina at least for the short term? the same applies to GJ specially with UJ daily reversal ?
I don't know what your definition of "short-term" is, but I like to focus on the long term. That's where swing traders make their money. Any short-term price action that goes against the long-term trend is simply an opportunity to add to my existing positions. That's what I'm doing.

Traders that believe price has moved too far too fast are those that either a) miss a majority of the move because they're too afraid of their profits getting retrace a bit, or b) lose a bunch of money trying to trade in and out of what is the major trend.

I don't want to be either of those traders.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #1,208
  • Feb 22, 2016 12:29pm Feb 22, 2016 12:29pm
Quoting bigbasho
Good work Geepy. More blessings. I just started live on a micro account last week and no lost so far. i dont think i have enough confidence yet to post charts here yet based on my analysis. meanwhile i still gained more confidence through your analysis. I will try to invite some exceptional trader that inspired me here. i hope they join also. Together we can soar high.
Sounds good, basho. We'll be here when you're ready to share your analysis
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #1,209
  • Feb 22, 2016 12:55pm Feb 22, 2016 12:55pm
am I the only one here watching UC and UJ and going like: "Well... COME DOWN ALREADY"...
xD
  • #1,210
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:00pm Feb 22, 2016 1:00pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I don't know what your definition of "short-term" is, but I like to focus on the long term. That's where swing traders make their money. Any short-term price action that goes against the long-term trend is simply an opportunity to add to my existing positions. That's what I'm doing. Traders that believe price has moved too far too fast are those that either a) miss a majority of the move because they're too afraid of their profits getting retrace a bit, or b) lose a bunch of money trying to trade in and out of what is the major trend. I...
Thanks for you reply.
I'm a swing trader myself , and I meant the inertia for the next couple of days.
I am holding oil and cad contracts for days now but when I mentioned this particular price movement that's from experience .
Anyway I would love to know your stop loss points on GU, GJ and UJ.
I guess there is a lot of difference of adding positions to a winning trade going your way or averaging a losing trade which is very dangerous.
  • #1,211
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:04pm Feb 22, 2016 1:04pm
Quoting Forex147
{quote} Thanks for you reply. I'm a swing trader myself , and I meant the inertia for the next couple of days. I am holding oil and cad contracts for days now but when I mentioned this particular price movement that's from experience . Anyway I would love to know your stop loss points on GU, GJ and UJ. I guess there is a lot of difference of adding positions to a winning trade going your way or averaging a losing trade which is very dangerous.
That's the huge difference. I add and keep my SL slightly in profit until I feel like I have enough. Then I ride it as long as possible for maximum profits.

The only drawback to this strategy is that the trade can come up and clip your SL, leaving you with barely any profit after being well in the money. However, that's a risk I'm ok taking since I don't let a winner turn into a loser and it allows me to really grab a lot more than I normally would when it works in my favor.

EDIT: I also happen to disagree on the direction over the next couple days. I think we see more downside.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #1,212
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:09pm Feb 22, 2016 1:09pm
Wish i could be more active but during work hours its hit or miss. Here's a list of what i'm in.

Ucad
Could of been in earlier but i wanted to wait and see what happened over the weekend. Got in from a touch of the weekly open. I already took off half the trade because i' don't know if price will get past the current months low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCad 2016.02.22.png Size: 145 KB


UJ
Looks like a good setup for short to me. Price shows activity at the prior weeks open, down trend on the daily and 4h, price recently broke last years low on the weekly.
I took a trade 112.90 that got stopped out. I got a little aggressive there and pulled the trigger a bit too quickly. Happens sometimes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ 2016.02.22.png Size: 130 KB


EU
Lotta shorting lately!
Euro is trading in a weekly range and it looks like we either have a little bit to go before hitting the top again or we've already hit the top for this cycle and are headed towards the bottom. This trade is for the latter. 1st entry got stopped. 2nd entry was after seeing price stall at the trend-line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 2016.02.22.png Size: 137 KB


GJ
Still in those shorts from last week. Took off 3/4ths of the position via stop placement and closure of 1 position. Looking to enter short again at the touch of the weekly open but i'm a bit wary of a retrace taking that out. I'll have to call it by ear once i'm there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ 2016.02.22.png Size: 146 KB


On a side note, pay no mind to those boxes i put up. It's an exercise i do to see what happened in the past in order to get me going along the correct thought process. Doesn't have any affect the current decisions.
  • #1,213
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:09pm Feb 22, 2016 1:09pm
Hi SulikFXer.

I am watching the USD/CAD also. I expect price to reach 1.374 ish before going down. CCI crossed -100 a couple of hours ago - need to wait?????
  • #1,214
  • Edited 1:26pm Feb 22, 2016 1:14pm | Edited 1:26pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} That's the huge difference. I add and keep my SL slightly in profit until I feel like I have enough. Then I ride it as long as possible for maximum profits. The only drawback to this strategy is that the trade can come up and clip your SL, leaving you with barely any profit after being well in the money. However, that's a risk I'm ok taking since I don't let a winner turn into a loser and it allows me to really grab a lot more than I normally would when it works in my favor. EDIT: I also happen to disagree on the direction over the next...
here's a look at my current GBP/JPY position. I'm averaged at 160.79 and my SL is 160.80

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2016-02-22 11.13.00.png Size: 83 KB


So I'm now sitting on a hefty position (14 minis) that aligns with the current trend (down) and has the potential to lose just 1 pip.

Gotta love that!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #1,215
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:15pm Feb 22, 2016 1:15pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} That's the huge difference. I add and keep my SL slightly in profit until I feel like I have enough. Then I ride it as long as possible for maximum profits. The only drawback to this strategy is that the trade can come up and clip your SL, leaving you with barely any profit after being well in the money. However, that's a risk I'm ok taking since I don't let a winner turn into a loser and it allows me to really grab a lot more than I normally would when it works in my favor. EDIT: I also happen to disagree on the direction over the next...
Thank you again for your kind reply, as traders have different views , we are all trying to learn from each other.
That's exactly my point is never let your profits turn into losses, and then add more to those losses.
  • #1,216
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:27pm Feb 22, 2016 1:27pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} here's a look at my current GBP/JPY position. I'm averaged at 160.79 and my SL is 160.80 So I'm now sitting on a hefty position (14 minis) that aligns with the current trend (down) and has the potential to lose just 1 pip. Gotta love that!
Ofcourse I love having 14 contracts going my way , but I am not willing to lose all this profit if prices went the other way?
I mean you won't even close some positions at a profit???
  • #1,217
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:28pm Feb 22, 2016 1:28pm
Quoting Forex147
{quote} Thank you again for your kind reply, as traders have different views , we are all trying to learn from each other. That's exactly my point is never let your profits turn into losses, and then add more to those losses.
For sure, man. And sorry... forgot the attachment initially in that last post (there now).

We're all always learning and that's what I'm hoping to foster in this thread: Smart swing traders that are helping one another to get even better.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #1,218
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:28pm Feb 22, 2016 1:28pm
Still short gbp/jpy with a few entries. Orders got triggered and reversed last night which left me well down but downtrend seems to be continuing and the big round 160 being tested as we speak again, will be continuing to hold shorts hoping for approx 157ish.
Advice to new traders would be if in a losing trade DO NOT double down as this more often than not ends in bigger losses, just get out once your s/l is hit a new trade will open up soon enough and you want to be able to afford to do it.
Winning positions yes gently add positions, I generally move the first entry s/l to close to break even at second trade and slight profit on third entry, add and repeat.
Finally guys where are we all from? I come from Ireland, interesting to see who trades when and from where.
  • #1,219
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:30pm Feb 22, 2016 1:30pm
Quoting Forex147
{quote} Ofcourse I love having 14 contracts going my way , but I am not willing to lose all this profit if prices went the other way? I mean you won't even close some positions at a profit???
I'll rarely close early simply because I have a lot of unrealized gains. That's letting psychology get the best of you in my opinion.

I generally map my trades out with a desired target and do everything possible to hold until it reaches there. The only reasons I tend to close early is if I see price action telling me things have changed and it's best to get out and wait... or if there's an event risk like we had on Friday. The whole Brexit thing was going down and I didn't feel like holding my position through the weekend with that risk on the table.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #1,220
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:35pm Feb 22, 2016 1:35pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I'll rarely close early simply because I have a lot of unrealized gains. That's letting psychology get the best of you in my opinion. I generally map my trades out with a desired target and do everything possible to hold until it reaches there. The only reasons I tend to close early is if I see price action telling me things have changed and it's best to get out and wait... or if there's an event risk like we had on Friday. The whole Brexit thing was going down and I didn't feel like holding my position through the weekend with that risk...
I would challenge people to run an experiment. Trade as you normally would, but every time you enter a trade add on an extra, much smaller position.

Trade your normal position as you always do... getting out wherever you feel is best, etc.

But with the smaller position, let it run until it either hits your original stop loss or profit target.

Do this for a month or two and keep notes on how many pips each trade makes or losses. I think you'll find that the smaller trade that you hold to SL or TP drastically outperforms your normal methodology.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
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