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Top-Down Analysis

  • #21
  • Feb 20, 2016 7:20pm Feb 20, 2016 7:20pm
UJ is the king of charts ,could b it will pull back ,which feeds EJ idea up off that pivot ,but its only pull back in all prob,
looking forward end of March to be bear
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY (DFB).png Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY w1 (DFB).png Size: 33 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #22
  • Feb 20, 2016 7:35pm Feb 20, 2016 7:35pm
bONES sir i respect you and follow your post always with great interest.. ..congrats and best wishes for new thread.Absolutely ...i believe it will be popular thread. Very interested to read more. Thanks for sharing
Say something meaningful or Silence!!
  • #23
  • Feb 20, 2016 7:38pm Feb 20, 2016 7:38pm
I want to keep on track with the theme and the rules ,
For instance ,If you post with a load of tls that are minor ,no actual main tls ,or basically general lines un-respected really
I'm gonna be ruthless ,

I appreciate the conversation so far
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #24
  • Feb 20, 2016 7:38pm Feb 20, 2016 7:38pm
UJ Monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYMonthly.png Size: 24 KB
  • #25
  • Feb 20, 2016 7:39pm Feb 20, 2016 7:39pm
Thanks classy thats a very nice thing to say

Quoting classy
bONES sir i respect you and follow your post always with great interest.. ..congrats and best wishes for new thread.Absolutely ...i believe it will be popular thread. Very interested to read more. Thanks for sharing
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #26
  • Feb 20, 2016 7:40pm Feb 20, 2016 7:40pm
yea you think we could get that super sell ,maybe we should be bullish next week

Quoting srt
UJ Monthly {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #27
  • Edited 8:11pm Feb 20, 2016 7:47pm | Edited 8:11pm
Quoting Bones
yea you think we could get that super sell ,maybe we should be bullish next week {quote}
I think they'll try to push it up to 116 before a larger drop to 105.
  • #28
  • Feb 21, 2016 6:29am Feb 21, 2016 6:29am
I must emphasize that that my time horizon for trades can vary alot. If I strongly suspect +100 move, even against the trend, I will sometimes be trying to catch it. It is all about the propability for it to happen. Some trades will be longer term, whilst other will be just for the day. What is good about this thread is that the overall market/structure/trend will be clear when looking at the higher TF`s. So when posting a trade against it, it will be clear to anyone that it is against the thread.

We all know that price will not go from A to B, I will be looking to trade the inbetween as well.

You mentioned in the opening post that you didn`t want too much indicators on the charts. So I removed parts of the system. As for the EURJPY, for me it looks like the chart below, is it too much for the thread? This is how I analyse my charts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: analyse.jpg Size: 328 KB
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #29
  • Feb 21, 2016 6:47am Feb 21, 2016 6:47am
Quoting vasily
the thing ı really dont understand with the smart people is,why they trade gbpjpy?if you ever trade gbpjpy 1min chart you will know that it is 100% combination of usdjpy and gbpusd.gbpjpy has no character.and trading and believing on support resistance and trendlines make nosense.gbpjpy or eurjpy are second hand charts.my2pips
Hi vasily

When considering to trade a currency pair/cross, I consider the cost(spread, swap) and potential of the move. If you had been trading long GBPUSD and I had been trading long GBPJPY from the date 20th of January to the start of February, who would have made the most money?

An advantage with the mechanism of the GBPJPY (USDJPY, GBPUSD) is that you can be able to verify your signals. If I have long GBPJPY signals, I can check my signals with USDJPY and GBPUSD as well. If they confirms the signals, there is a higher probability for the signals to be correct.

With all this at hand, I see no reason to why not trade the GBPJPY. The moves are larger than the exchange rates between the pairs suggests.

Also trendlines/support/resistance can be self-fulfilling prophecies. Signals around these levels can give indications.

Different approaches to the trading the forex market exists, I don`t claim to have the right one or that someone else is wrong. I stick to my method and respect that other people sees it differently. That is the way it should be..
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #30
  • Feb 21, 2016 6:48am Feb 21, 2016 6:48am
Hi Bones. I am new to the LFX. I think it might be time for AUD to bounce soon? I also understand JPY is bullish. If both are valid, isn't it contradictory that both AUD (risk-on currency) and JPY (risk off currency) both go up? Thanks in advance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDLFXWeekly.png Size: 49 KB
  • #31
  • Feb 21, 2016 6:50am Feb 21, 2016 6:50am
Hi D ,looks fine ,since you already met the rule and posted 2 charts original idea ,and we know what your talking about
I don't fully it understand tho,but then theres lots I don't ,I realise lots of ways to skin a cat ,thats why I left it open
as I say I see potential for up retrace ,eur could side jpy weaker retrace ,I will be looking towards the open re eur
for me the risk in the small ups would be far to great ,


Quoting Decima
I must emphasize that that my time horizon for trades can vary alot. If I strongly suspect +100 move, even against the trend, I will sometimes be trying to catch it. It is all about the propability for it to happen. Some trades will be longer term, whilst other will be just for the day. What is good about this thread is that the overall market/structure/trend will be clear when looking at the higher TF`s. So when posting a trade against it, it will be clear to anyone that it is against the thread. We all know that price will not go from A to B,...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #32
  • Feb 21, 2016 6:59am Feb 21, 2016 6:59am
Quoting vasily
the thing ı really dont understand with the smart people is,why they trade gbpjpy?if you ever trade gbpjpy 1min chart you will know that it is 100% combination of usdjpy and gbpusd.gbpjpy has no character.and trading and believing on support resistance and trendlines make nosense.gbpjpy or eurjpy are second hand charts.my2pips
Hi V
I generally avoid G crosses but for different reason.They don't fit well with my position building style.They can be very erratic and 50pip spike common hence SL's get hit often even if direction is correct.
I find more rookies trading crosses based on results posted by traders who have lot more experience and trying to duplicate that get crashed.
G crosses and crosses in general precise entry is a must and that takes skill.Best crosses are CAD pairs.I particularly make good $$ trading EC

Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33
  • Feb 21, 2016 7:04am Feb 21, 2016 7:04am
Hi Man you are welcome ,which other chart (TF) would you put with this one

Quoting man007
Hi Bones. I am new to the LFX. I think it might be time for AUD to bounce soon? I also understand JPY is bullish. If both are valid, isn't it contradictory that both AUD (risk-on currency) and JPY (risk off currency) both go up? Thanks in advance. {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #34
  • Feb 21, 2016 7:08am Feb 21, 2016 7:08am
Hi Bones
nice thread.I do same on my trades top down approach but I also follow news and fundamentals.
Good example when Yellen was testifying Asia market went in panic and money went into Euro and Yen and Euro spiked enormously
that's when one takes advantage and sells the spike.EC dropped 500+pips in less then a week.
Charts alone not enough...
Check out EC even with panic buying EC still retreated on 78%fib.I am a firm believer of fibs.
regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADDaily.png Size: 32 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #35
  • Feb 21, 2016 7:14am Feb 21, 2016 7:14am
Hey d great to see you here ,you already know I'm 100% tech ,I keep an eye on events a but thats about it ,its too dangerous for someone like me and a dare say the majority of retail
to take a view
anyway I accept other views if your really good fundi
do you know what made $ down Friday for instance ?


Quoting Davit
Hi Bones nice thread.I do same on my trades top down approach but I also follow news and fundamentals. Good example when Yellen was testifying Asia market went in panic and money went into Euro and Yen and Euro spiked enormously that's when one takes advantage and sells the spike.EC dropped 500+pips in less then a week. Charts alone not enough... regards
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #36
  • Edited 7:29am Feb 21, 2016 7:16am | Edited 7:29am
AUD/USD....
For USD/JPY and LFXJPY, it is pretty much same as yours...
All in weekly
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYWeekly.png Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: LFXJPYWeekly.png Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDWeekly.png Size: 51 KB
  • #37
  • Feb 21, 2016 7:19am Feb 21, 2016 7:19am
It's about time Tony ... .... Best wishes for the thread.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #38
  • Feb 21, 2016 7:21am Feb 21, 2016 7:21am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi V I generally avoid G crosses but for different reason.They don't fit well with my position building style.They can be very erratic and 50pip spike common hence SL's get hit often even if direction is correct. I find more rookies trading crosses based on results posted by traders who have lot more experience and trying to duplicate that get crashed. G crosses and crosses in general precise entry is a must and that takes skill.Best crosses are CAD pairs.I particularly make good $$ trading EC Regards
hi davit
coreect.gbp always too much noisy due to too much manupilation.even if you follow boe president carney he is one of the best manipulator.not much clue on cad.ı trade the ones xxxusd usdxxx.for me the others are second hand charts.lowest cost charts with doninand on one side

thank you

carney:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...s-9561114.html
  • #39
  • Feb 21, 2016 7:23am Feb 21, 2016 7:23am
Quoting Decima
{quote} Hi vasily When considering to trade a currency pair/cross, I consider the cost(spread, swap) and potential of the move. If you had been trading long GBPUSD and I had been trading long GBPJPY from the date 20th of January to the start of February, who would have made the most money? An advantage with the mechanism of the GBPJPY (USDJPY, GBPUSD) is that you can be able to verify your signals. If I have long GBPJPY signals, I can check my signals with USDJPY and GBPUSD as well. If they confirms the signals, there is a higher probability...
hi decima
yes then why trading it when confirming on other?

open gj gu and uj 1min charts watch for 2-3 hours you will understand what ı say
think that way.how much trade run between gbp and jpy.not much.the connection between them is usd.and you take that out of formula
  • #40
  • Edited 1:56pm Feb 21, 2016 7:26am | Edited 1:56pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPDaily.png Size: 32 KB
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