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Top-Down Analysis

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited May 10, 2016 8:34am Feb 20, 2016 1:41pm | Edited May 10, 2016 8:34am
What is a 'Top-Down Analysis'
A method of analysis that involves looking at the "big picture" first, and then analysing the details of smaller components.

Hi
Essentially this is how I approach the problem solving of where any market is heading ,mostly I would post general outlooks
Your see what I'm trying to accomplish , taking trades hugely against a current move next tf up.

For myself

  1. Candles are my main tool ,with Support and Resistance & Trendiness ,Confluence


For the thread purpose any type analysis welcome
To avoid posts being deleted or being baned please respect

  1. Clean charts ,1 or 2 indicators max
  2. When posting an initial idea it must be accompined with a next TF up say 'D1 with W1' therefore you have considered the bigger picture
  3. Minimum higher TF H4 (i.e 30 min with a h4) , therefore you have considered the bigger picture
  4. No made up technical approaches (I'm the judge) , this is strictly a keep to the known technical concepts corner
  5. No single line specials saying I'm long or short or whatever ,weak fundamental one liners

I don't have a trade explorer ,what I'm trading is what I'm posting, I'm not going to advise any parameters ,some of my ideas will lay to rest for days /weeks .
I may not be around to post updates ,but initial ideas will be clear what I'm trading .
Really simple main rule of 2 charts per idea ,one higher, one at least H4

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  • #2
  • Edited Feb 21, 2016 6:42am Feb 20, 2016 3:20pm | Edited Feb 21, 2016 6:42am
example of what id like to see ,I guess this thread wont be popular lol
its with the bears ,could be March as monthly open is a number to be careful of ,at this time 2 wicks to north through a major area ,
if the monthly open breaks this month it can only be bad news for eur
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  • #3
  • Feb 20, 2016 3:45pm Feb 20, 2016 3:45pm
Hi Bones

I give it a shot. I like your idea for this thread.

Long (Buy) EURJPY

Based on technical analysis (trendline/support) on the daily chart, as well as indicator on the hourly chart.

I am betting on increased risk-on sentiment in the market, leading to safe-haven weakening. I consider the JPY to be strongly overbought, due to the latest risk-off sentiment.

When risk appreciation increases again, there is room for JPY weakening. JPY is at important levels in the JPY pairs I track. Buying EURJPY at the current level around 125 is attractive in my opinion.

Daily
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Hourly
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Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #4
  • Feb 20, 2016 4:09pm Feb 20, 2016 4:09pm
promising.. i believe this thread is going to be a success

my humble analysis im afraid going to contradict many opinions.. so far been seeing many gbp bulls and that scares me but have to share this anyway.. daily and h4 charts gbpjpy, with ew count and a few comments.
good luck with the thread!
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  • #5
  • Edited 4:45pm Feb 20, 2016 4:22pm | Edited 4:45pm
what can I say I'm very pleased with your post ,I believe this methodology
with deductive reasoning ,confluence across the charts you can be super accurate
end of day to see the bigger picture is where long run trades can occur ,
my weekly attached is the same ,lower channel line
but no way would I long EJ yet ,monthly weekly ,and daily =down
in fact the real direction would be break this zone

Quoting Decima
Hi Bones I give it a shot. I like your idea for this thread. Long (Buy) EURJPY Based on technical analysis (trendline/support) on the daily chart, as well as indicator on the hourly chart. I am betting on increased risk-on sentiment in the market, leading to safe-haven weakening. I consider the JPY to be strongly overbought, due to the latest risk-off sentiment. When risk appreciation increases again, there is room for JPY weakening. JPY is at important levels in the JPY pairs I track. Buying EURJPY at the current level around 125 is attractive...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: JPY month (DFB).png Size: 24 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #6
  • Edited Feb 21, 2016 6:19am Feb 20, 2016 4:40pm | Edited Feb 21, 2016 6:19am
I use lfx charts for all the majors ,Eur Lfx is down in coming weeks ,3 candle and that three candle in that location especially =high probability
but we must see what next ,in this case
more power to a doji cross


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post8766401
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  • #7
  • Edited 5:20pm Feb 20, 2016 5:06pm | Edited 5:20pm
Hi A thanks ,if you take cable bounce Friday ,its pretty ,a retrace would be a gift before the upper res
bears wont change that monthly now ,so could close that or higher imo ,
But usd jpy can only retrace this year


Quoting alayinizAMK
promising.. i believe this thread is going to be a success my humble analysis im afraid going to contradict many opinions.. so far been seeing many gbp bulls and that scares me but have to share this anyway.. daily and h4 charts gbpjpy, with ew count and a few comments. good luck with the thread! {image} {image}
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #8
  • Feb 20, 2016 5:12pm Feb 20, 2016 5:12pm
Interesting about the lfx charts. I have never used it myself. I see the benefits of using them.

It is mostly due to a suspected mood change in the market that I would go long on the EURJPY, hence JPY weakening. Maybe another currency as a counterpart to the JPY would be an equally good or better choice. It is mainly the JPY weakness I would trade.

The value of EUR detoriating as the lfx might suggest, just backs up this opinion. A mood change (risk off) would lead to EUR weakening against other currencies. What is the lfx chart showing for the JPY?

Thanks for good feedback on my suggested trade. It is a sound discussion and I will take your points into consideration
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #9
  • Feb 20, 2016 5:26pm Feb 20, 2016 5:26pm
cool you can get LFX demo MT4
http://www.liteforex.com
Im more than happy for conflicting views ,I see lower tl ,and pivot match ,could retrace ,its not for me considering the bearishness if it went up id be waiting short
eur gbp I can show will be down imo
Quoting Decima
Interesting about the lfx charts. I have never used it myself. I see the benefits of using them. It is mostly due to a suspected mood change in the market that I would go long on the EURJPY, hence JPY weakening. Maybe another currency as a counterpart to the JPY would be an equally good or better choice. It is mainly the JPY weakness I would trade. The value of EUR detoriating as the lfx might suggest, just backs up this opinion. A mood change (risk off) would lead to EUR weakening against other currencies. What is the lfx chart showing for the...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #10
  • Edited 6:07pm Feb 20, 2016 5:36pm | Edited 6:07pm
I want to broach the power of top down ,with usd lfx ,I could anticipate the sell off before that h4 closed,and actually that next candle went further but lfx close early ,
It was just a question of adding up all the confluence
You can add a lot of weight to that failure




http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post8764688
next h4 ,free fall ?
this star as in evening star ,
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  • #11
  • Feb 20, 2016 6:02pm Feb 20, 2016 6:02pm
I have only ever seen one other do this ,if Hussin is the surgeon ,I would be the junior doctor

http://www.forexfactory.com/hussin*naiji
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=69786
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  • #12
  • Feb 20, 2016 6:15pm Feb 20, 2016 6:15pm
Quoting Bones
I use lfx charts for all the majors ,Eur Lfx is down in coming weeks ,3 candle and that three candle in that location especially =high probability {image}
Hey Bones great thread start! Question what type of demo are you running on lfx? I am running ecn and all my lfx majors disappeared some time ago. I got into using them after seeing you use them in the daily thread. Thanks for sharing!
  • #13
  • Feb 20, 2016 6:22pm Feb 20, 2016 6:22pm
Hi R ,welcome ,could be you have to right click market watch ,then show all ,Hussin would say candles are better Llfx ,cleaner ,I agree
also lfx shows the way before fx

Quoting renegade
{quote} Hey Bones great thread start! Question what type of demo are you running on lfx? I am running ecn and all my lfx majors disappeared some time ago. I got into using them after seeing you use them in the daily thread. Thanks for sharing!
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  • #14
  • Feb 20, 2016 6:29pm Feb 20, 2016 6:29pm
Quoting Bones
Hi R ,welcome ,could be you have to right click market watch ,then show all ,Hussin would say candles are better Llfx ,cleaner ,I agree also lfx shows the way before fx {quote}
Hey Bones I have done that and they just aren't there anymore. I will just download another demo, but glad to find out they still have them. You got me hooked on them a long time ago. Thanks
  • #15
  • Edited 6:44pm Feb 20, 2016 6:29pm | Edited 6:44pm
eu range can be difficult ,the weekly being red this week is no surprise ,the only thing I can think is usd and eur are bear to the point range will be extended ,
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  • #16
  • Feb 20, 2016 6:58pm Feb 20, 2016 6:58pm
down is stronger jpy on this ,
that's a super pattern I doubt break for a long time ,I don't think the government could stop the force ,best case for the bears is lower wick
it also feeds my bearish view longer term equities
Quoting Decima
Interesting about the lfx charts. I have never used it myself. I see the benefits of using them. It is mostly due to a suspected mood change in the market that I would go long on the EURJPY, hence JPY weakening. Maybe another currency as a counterpart to the JPY would be an equally good or better choice. It is mainly the JPY weakness I would trade. The value of EUR detoriating as the lfx might suggest, just backs up this opinion. A mood change (risk off) would lead to EUR weakening against other currencies. What is the lfx chart showing for the...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LFXJPYMonthly.png Size: 33 KB
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  • #17
  • Feb 20, 2016 7:03pm Feb 20, 2016 7:03pm
the dax is a fav chart of mine
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...19#post8750219
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  • #18
  • Feb 20, 2016 7:06pm Feb 20, 2016 7:06pm
thread is good

uj probable target
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  • #19
  • Feb 20, 2016 7:16pm Feb 20, 2016 7:16pm
the thing ı really dont understand with the smart people is,why they trade gbpjpy?if you ever trade gbpjpy 1min chart you will know that it is 100% combination of usdjpy and gbpusd.gbpjpy has no character.and trading and believing on support resistance and trendlines make nosense.gbpjpy or eurjpy are second hand charts.my2pips
  • #20
  • Feb 20, 2016 7:19pm Feb 20, 2016 7:19pm
Quoting Bones
the dax is a fav chart of mine http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...19#post8750219 {image} {image}
Similar bearish view of US equities.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post8673375

***Nice thread Tone
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