still expecting Yen to appreciate despite the negative rates, but also fully expecting UJ to pop again like last time (2-3% pop in a few min), just don't know the number, maybe 111 is the magic area?
- #1,057,641
- Feb 19, 2016 6:49am Feb 19, 2016 6:49am
- Joined Sep 2007 | Status: simmer down now | 1,251 Posts
- #1,057,643
- Feb 19, 2016 6:53am Feb 19, 2016 6:53am
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
- #1,057,644
- Feb 19, 2016 6:56am Feb 19, 2016 6:56am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 2,310 Posts
{quote} Put the coffee back...
- #1,057,645
- Feb 19, 2016 6:58am Feb 19, 2016 6:58am
- | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Full time retard | 1,561 Posts
{quote} with cognac or straight
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
- #1,057,646
- Feb 19, 2016 7:01am Feb 19, 2016 7:01am
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
{quote} with cognac or straight
the issue is getting to ADR. AUD has adr/daily s3/ and weekly pivot all within about 5 pips, watching that closely
- #1,057,647
- Feb 19, 2016 7:01am Feb 19, 2016 7:01am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 2,310 Posts
{quote} Code name -Irish Coffee
- #1,057,649
- Feb 19, 2016 7:05am Feb 19, 2016 7:05am
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,141 Posts
{quote} Hathor could you please explain how to use this type of charting, recommend sth to read about it. I have seen this dozens of times here but truly I dont know how I should read it. Judging by the dates, you see similarity I guess, based on this are you bullish? When you have the time, no rush.
IMHO charts can be definiated pretty nice by using oldschool geometric patterns like Triangles, Butterflies and AB=CDs (and their extensions).
I try to find possible AB=CDs on every time frame and I construct, edit the possible outcome with 'caliper' and 'ruler' (target 'D' and extensions).
Than I also try to find triangles in different time frames and I try to connect it with the AB=CDs points.
AB is given by the past, so all we need to do is to seek the possible levels for 'C' and 'D'.
These points can be measured according to the previous tops and bottoms between 'A' and 'B' -> many time 'C' point is a stop-clearer move, I mean the bastards kick out the right positions, while many position will be trapped in the wrong direction...
...so if an ABCD is pointin up, than usually 'C' point takes out a previous bottom, while when pointing down, than 'C' takes out a previous top (in the range of AB).
The butterfly is also a great tool, which is definiating a very common market pattern, which is the following:
It shows the fail of the AB=CD. When 'C' is formed (after AB) and it can't crack 'B' (to finish the move to point 'D'), than usually point 'A' will be wiped out.
I don't really respect the specific pattern rules like Crab and Gartley, the most important is the main reason of these patterns, which is:
- if a move can't evolve (so it's rejected at point 'B' after 'C' is formed), than 'A' will be erased (after point 'C').
But it's just 1/3 of the job, I extend the analysis with a system based on leaving equilibrium on diff time frames and with keeping an eye on the Long:Short ratio (FF, Daily FX and sometimes others).
The equilibrium based system helps me to enter when the pair is forming lows (and possible bottoms) and vice versa [good system gives buy signal, when price is at triangles lower line and vice versa and not while braking out - that is late], while the L:S ratio helps me to monitor the retailers sentiment.
My sentiment is mixed right now:
Monhtly - is buy since March, 2015
Weekly - was buy until sell signal appeared over my target on the posted picture
Daily - buy signal since 16 of Febr
Intraday - changes recently
So overall I have buy sentiment since quite a while, but now I would like to get a new weekly (buy) signal (with a daily), which would mean every higher time frame aiming in the same direction.
Currently I would like to see the pair to test or at least try to test the new weekly top, while a Daily sell signals should come.
This would mean I have Monthly buy, but Weekly+Daily sell signal, which would let me sell until weekly buy (and daily buy) arrives...than the lower I can buy, the better will be the Risk:reward.
A quick example:
If current top holds, but the pair will go higher later, than maybe a giant AB=CD is under construction like this (target is to get stops over 1.17140):
But every coin have two sides:
Two know which one is valid, you have to use other analysis IMHO (I use 3 diff analysis, because than I can see the market in "3D").
If something is not clear just ask!
f(z)=z2+c
- #1,057,650
- Feb 19, 2016 7:06am Feb 19, 2016 7:06am
- | Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Trader | 2,815 Posts | Online Now
{quote}
- #1,057,651
- Feb 19, 2016 7:08am Feb 19, 2016 7:08am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Fear makes us see who we really are | 4,822 Posts
{quote} UJ will rally. ATM it's looking better to play EJ because of EU. However, I'm playing it with AUD, medium term (1-3 week swing trade) AUD is overdue for a rally similar to NZD last October. Probably AUDNZD up this time as I don't think NZD will outpace AUD this time. Unless AUD pulls a CAD-like final blow off move , I think it looks set to rally long term (bottom could be in) NZD had it's freak out short squeeze last year (800 pips), CAD just had it's short squeeze (1000 pips), YEN had it's short squeeze (1000 pips in 2 weeks) now it's AUD...
If news are US + it will be a hard spike down on eurusd and spike up on usdjpy.
They think they are smarter than I am.
- #1,057,652
- Feb 19, 2016 7:09am Feb 19, 2016 7:09am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 2,310 Posts
{quote} ADR with pivots is proving to be a powerful combo, mofu/adr/pivot a giveme the issue is getting to ADR. AUD has adr/daily s3/ and weekly pivot all within about 5 pips, watching that closely
- #1,057,654
- Feb 19, 2016 7:12am Feb 19, 2016 7:12am
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
{quote} add 3 days low there too
To correct: the issue is getting to ADR, which I'm seeing is often @ resistance or suppot pivot 3....seems like within a few pips more often than not. Only a few weeks in so I don't want to say anything concrete, but that specific trade d3 + adr is at the top of my trade list to watch
- #1,057,655
- Feb 19, 2016 7:14am Feb 19, 2016 7:14am
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
- #1,057,656
- Feb 19, 2016 7:17am Feb 19, 2016 7:17am
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,141 Posts
f(z)=z2+c
- #1,057,657
- Feb 19, 2016 7:20am Feb 19, 2016 7:20am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 2,310 Posts
{quote}
- #1,057,658
- Feb 19, 2016 7:22am Feb 19, 2016 7:22am
- Joined Jun 2012 | Status: ケンジ | 21,416 Posts
{quote}
- #1,057,659
- Feb 19, 2016 7:24am Feb 19, 2016 7:24am
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
{quote} looks like need to close under 0.71005 first {image}
fancy shmancy Yup, been debating on closing all morning- if news is USD bad I'll close, weekly open 7100, and you see ds2 there
- #1,057,660
- Feb 19, 2016 7:27am Feb 19, 2016 7:27am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 2,310 Posts
{quote} I see you've got both pivot methods there