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Flag trading the trend

  • #10,301
  • Feb 18, 2016 11:28am Feb 18, 2016 11:28am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Stop is at breakeven on the break back above 1918.50. If price trades above 1924, I will move stop to lock in 4 points. 1931.25 is my profit target.
Moved to stop to lock in +3 which will guarantee a no worse than breakeven day. Still have profit target at 1931.25 and if $SPX cash goes positive, I should be able to move stop loss to lock in 3.5 to 4 points.
  • #10,302
  • Feb 18, 2016 11:33am Feb 18, 2016 11:33am
DD don't forget to lock in some profit its a slow crawl but its moving you way it looks like you got up 9 points you already answer this before I posted lol way to go it might take awhile but its a free trade all around eat lunch end up profitable
  • #10,303
  • Feb 18, 2016 11:37am Feb 18, 2016 11:37am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} I like Al Brooks's saying: The problem with trying to cherry pick your trades is that you will invariably pick too many bad cherries and leave too many good ones on the vine. In my opinion, if you have a valid set up with a real, tested and testable edge, then you must take each occurrence. There will always be statistical variance, meaning a string of losers (and strings of winners) will occur from time to time. This is not about being right. This is about placing trades, stops, targets, and, as D. would say, "accumulating ticks." Sometimes,...

Yeh with you there DD. In fairness, i am still tinkering with the system as to what designates a trade. The silly thing is, (and this is specific to my system), by negating a set-up whilst normal divergence is preceeding and also by only taking the macd crossovers for longs when cross is in positive territory (and vica versa for shorts), it has a very high success rate, but it is the constantly sitting on your hands watching the others turn out to be winners, that is proving really hard to ignore... then of course as soon as you trade one of the riskier ones, it turns out to be a loser!

I am still tinkering, me thinks, but of course, what works one day, does not the next, so perhaps i am over complicating matters and also over-trading too?!
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #10,304
  • Feb 18, 2016 11:57am Feb 18, 2016 11:57am
Quoting The Cableguy
{quote} In fairness, i am still tinkering with the system as to what designates a trade.
Then, imo, you should be paper trading and/or backtesting, but not trading real $$ until you know without any doubt or confusion under what conditions a trade opportunity with an edge exists per your system. Again, I'm as guilty of pre-mature trade execution as you are. Please don't think that I think myself "superior" in any way. I am a human and subject to all the same susceptibilities as other humans. Sometimes, I am actually able to protect myself from those weaknesses.




Quoting The Cableguy
{quote} it is the constantly sitting on your hands watching the others turn out to be winners, that is proving really hard to ignore... then of course as soon as you trade one of the riskier ones, it turns out to be a loser!
Which is exactly what my post was meant to address: if you do not take all the set ups, if you try to "cherry pick," you will find yourself picking the rotten cherries while the others are eaten by other birds.
  • #10,305
  • Feb 18, 2016 12:10pm Feb 18, 2016 12:10pm
here's what my day should have looked like(n.b. ended with two +1's as i had cci setting wrong):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ym18feb16.png Size: 48 KB
Become the casino
  • #10,306
  • Feb 18, 2016 12:25pm Feb 18, 2016 12:25pm
Hey CG every plan has to start with a viable consistent setup/setups. Without that there can be no plan. So to me it seems you like the cup setup fine so instead of Divergence see if momentum is verifying your setup instead. Keep it simple pa + momentum is nice combo don't over complicate things
  • #10,307
  • Feb 18, 2016 12:58pm Feb 18, 2016 12:58pm
3rd time the charm? Bought the tes of today's low 1912.25 ... stil looking for 1930's.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es p to R1 looking for the charm.GIF Size: 21 KB
  • #10,308
  • Feb 18, 2016 1:04pm Feb 18, 2016 1:04pm
Hopefully you grabbed some profit from other trade. You warned me yesterday about inferior PA would you call this good PA?
  • #10,309
  • Feb 18, 2016 1:09pm Feb 18, 2016 1:09pm
Quoting Divergence
Hopefully you grabbed some profit from other trade. You warned me yesterday about inferior PA would you call this good PA?
Timing is excellent: Low made before 11:30 AM, followed by choppy lunch time trade, then a test of the low after 1:30 EST makes for a high probability double bottom rally for the afternoon session. Always keep an eye on the high of the AM session and the low of the AM session and also the high of the overnight session and the low of the overnight session. Trade accordingly.
  • #10,310
  • Feb 18, 2016 1:09pm Feb 18, 2016 1:09pm
So if your goal is 4 pts a day and you lost 3 points and last trade got you up 7 wouldn't you have achieved goal without this trade
  • #10,311
  • Feb 18, 2016 1:18pm Feb 18, 2016 1:18pm
Quoting Divergence
So if your goal is 4 pts a day and you lost 3 points and last trade got you up 7 wouldn't you have achieved goal without this trade
I was up seven but had a +3 stop so I am even for the day.
  • #10,312
  • Feb 18, 2016 1:25pm Feb 18, 2016 1:25pm
Quoting ddaytrader
3rd time the charm? Bought the tes of today's low 1912.25 ... stil looking for 1930's.
Moving stop up, will lock in 4 points soon ...


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es p to R1 looking for the charm 2.GIF Size: 17 KB
  • #10,313
  • Feb 18, 2016 1:47pm Feb 18, 2016 1:47pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Moving stop up, will lock in 4 points soon ...
Locking in 5.25 points, but still keeping open to the possibility of a run at the 1930's before the close. I'm letting this go to autopilot and I will exit at the close if my stop or profit target has not been hit.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es p to R1 looking for the charm 3.GIF Size: 18 KB
  • #10,314
  • Feb 18, 2016 1:51pm Feb 18, 2016 1:51pm
Super job it reminds me of yesterday except your pa better than mine
  • #10,315
  • Feb 19, 2016 4:32am Feb 19, 2016 4:32am
Morning rant warning

Quote
... as i had cci setting wrong

CCI !?

We're going round in circles (but hopefully not of "quiet desperation"*)

or

"With a tweak, tweak, here,
A tweak, tweak there.
Here a tweak, there a tweak,
Everywhere a tweak, tweak..
Old MacDonald had a farm..."

or

"My name's jt and I'm a tweaker..."

My point, this foggy Friday morning, is that I think I'm done (or should be done) tweaking & it's time to get radical & stick with the program - no tweaks - for the rest of the year. It seems we ALL tweak and no-one's trading more than 3 or 4 lots (mostly singles). Whilst that's much bigger size than 99% of people at FF, it signifies lack of genuine, long-term progress, even in the face of some knock-it-out-of-the-park weeks (Harold : you & I were having those back in 2007/8 trading multiple full size FX lots).

Ah, well, just some rambling from this cranky 64 yr old, who will be contemplating the above over the weekend...

*"Every year is getting shorter never seem to find the time.
Plans that either come to naught or half a page of scribbled lines
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way
The time is gone, the song is over,
Thought I'd something more to say."

  • #10,316
  • Feb 19, 2016 5:32am Feb 19, 2016 5:32am
Quoting Divergence
{quote}since I am using a tick chart there is not bars to count for pb as long as it doesn't go down 25 ticks from first trade I will take the pb. to give full disclosure on my 333 tick chart I added a little buffer to assist me in getting the good setups and eliminate a great portions of the bad ones its a cci set to 6 so if I am looking at a 123 short I want it to occur while in ob conditions here is same chart I posted before but with cci to show what I mean. I still get direction from 999 charts macd for momentum on 333 chart. Also on the pb...
At the beginning of this thread, you used CCI to locate the bull/bear flag. It seems that you are combining the old and new stuffs.
  • #10,317
  • Edited 6:25am Feb 19, 2016 6:06am | Edited 6:25am
Quoting jtrade
It seems we ALL tweak and no-one's trading more than 3 or 4 lots (mostly singles). Whilst that's much bigger size than 99% of people at FF, it signifies lack of genuine, long-term progress, even in the face of some knock-it-out-of-the-park weeks (Harold : you & I were having those back in 2007/8 trading multiple full size FX lots). Ah, well, just some rambling from this cranky 64 yr old, who will be contemplating the above over the weekend... *"
I think it depends on the trading instrument too. For CL and YM, 3 or 4 lots per trade can be considered to be plenty. For ES, it is a different story.

Just my two cents.
  • #10,318
  • Feb 19, 2016 6:31am Feb 19, 2016 6:31am
Quoting jtrade
It seems we ALL tweak and no-one's trading more than 3 or 4 lots (mostly singles). Whilst that's much bigger size than 99% of people at FF, it signifies lack of genuine, long-term progress, even in the face of some knock-it-out-of-the-park weeks (Harold : you & I were having those back in 2007/8 trading multiple full size FX lots).
Indeed. When profitable good way of trading is found, one should prevent himself/herself to tweak it. Start tweaking if there has been multiple weeks of losses or no gains.

I'd like to go to multiple lots in YM, while why limiting yourself to some lotsize if method is good. One could trade 10-20 lots in YM. With constant tweaking I guess it's not possible.

Just my half cent. I am guilty of tweaking too, while tweaking is fun and exciting and going with the same old can feel boring at times. But what I have realized is that after the boredom there comes new wave that makes doing the same thing over and over exciting. Just like in golf or any other craft you are basically doing the same thing over and over and start getting "kicks" out of doing it the right way.
  • #10,319
  • Feb 19, 2016 6:45am Feb 19, 2016 6:45am
Quoting tdforex
But what I have realized is that after the boredom there comes new wave that makes doing the same thing over and over exciting. Just like in golf ....

I like the sound of that, td, especially if I can apply it to my golf !
  • #10,320
  • Feb 19, 2016 7:30am Feb 19, 2016 7:30am
Quoting jtrade
{quote} I like the sound of that, td, especially if I can apply it to my golf !
Ye, think about it. After golfer has found his swing (after many tries) and has honed it with tutor/pro, next thing is to make 30 000 repeats (i made the number out of my head) remember the swing with every cell you have and just execute. Perfectly, every time.

It is not possible to keep changing swing and expect top notch results. After every alteration you make those 30 000 repeats again, until everything is automatic.

Of course, it's not exactly same in trading, but didn't you say JT that you have friend that has had same charts and indis 10years +
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