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Flag trading the trend

  • #10,281
  • Feb 18, 2016 8:10am Feb 18, 2016 8:10am
Pay attention to crude report today. Nowadays it seems that CL report affects YM market quite a lot.
  • #10,282
  • Feb 18, 2016 8:53am Feb 18, 2016 8:53am
Looking for 123 or B123 in this area
  • #10,283
  • Feb 18, 2016 8:54am Feb 18, 2016 8:54am
2B Long ES 1920.50 looking to long from pivot to R1 which will test the area of the overnight high.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es p to R1.GIF Size: 18 KB
  • #10,284
  • Feb 18, 2016 9:05am Feb 18, 2016 9:05am
B123 SHORT from 30 got up 12 the it came back went up 13 took 10
  • #10,285
  • Feb 18, 2016 9:11am Feb 18, 2016 9:11am
B123 46 long
  • #10,286
  • Feb 18, 2016 9:16am Feb 18, 2016 9:16am
+1
  • #10,287
  • Feb 18, 2016 9:35am Feb 18, 2016 9:35am
very slow today
Become the casino
  • #10,288
  • Feb 18, 2016 9:50am Feb 18, 2016 9:50am
crude inventory in 10 minutes it seems there correlated at this time in history
  • #10,289
  • Feb 18, 2016 10:01am Feb 18, 2016 10:01am
Few wins, couple losses. More wins than losses, but i still hate the losers!

Going round in circles wondering whether to take all set-ups and use averages, or to try and apply experience to pick and choose most likely...

I've always found losing trades hit me more, psychologically, than they really should. I learnt a long time ago, that my natural make up is not ideal for trading. I am far too an emotional person, hence working non stop to find the best mechanical entry and exit, to combat the mental fatigue side of things!
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #10,290
  • Feb 18, 2016 10:34am Feb 18, 2016 10:34am
123 short from 95 +15 and pullback to 96 +30 plus the 12 I had before 57 total on a very tough day
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.png Size: 140 KB
  • #10,291
  • Feb 18, 2016 10:44am Feb 18, 2016 10:44am
Quoting Divergence
123 short from 95 +15 and pullback to 96 +30 plus the 12 I had before 57 total on a very tough day
Nice trading, D. Cut the first lose for -3points, and here is my second ES trade. Long 123 set up. Still have my target (not shown) above 1930 for potential re-rtest of high. I'll trail my stop behind if this moves favorably.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es mp to R1.GIF Size: 19 KB
  • #10,292
  • Feb 18, 2016 10:48am Feb 18, 2016 10:48am
nice so entry 1915.25 right
  • #10,293
  • Feb 18, 2016 10:49am Feb 18, 2016 10:49am
Quoting Divergence
123 short from 95 +15 and pullback to 96 +30 plus the 12 I had before 57 total on a very tough day {image}
Hi Divergence,

How many bars are you willing to wait for the pullback ?

Thanks.
  • #10,294
  • Feb 18, 2016 10:50am Feb 18, 2016 10:50am
Quoting The Cableguy
Going round in circles wondering whether to take all set-ups and use averages, or to try and apply experience to pick and choose most likely...
I like Al Brooks's saying: The problem with trying to cherry pick your trades is that you will invariably pick too many bad cherries and leave too many good ones on the vine.

In my opinion, if you have a valid set up with a real, tested and testable edge, then you must take each occurrence. There will always be statistical variance, meaning a string of losers (and strings of winners) will occur from time to time.

This is not about being right. This is about placing trades, stops, targets, and, as D. would say, "accumulating ticks." Sometimes, a few ticks will spill back into the market. Just keep playing your edge. Trading with an edge is no different that a card counting blackjack player: A card counter will play each hand according to his edge, knowing that he will win some hands he shouldn't have won and lose some hands where the edge is in his favor. What matters is plugging away.

All of which is, I'll admit, easier said than done. If it were easy, everyone would be doing it and we wouldn't be talking about it. So when I post these "observations," do not think for a moment that I am not guilty of the same faults myself. Thus the need continually to remind myself to stay in the zone.
  • #10,295
  • Feb 18, 2016 10:51am Feb 18, 2016 10:51am
Quoting Divergence
nice so entry 1915.25 right
Yes, D.
  • #10,296
  • Feb 18, 2016 10:59am Feb 18, 2016 10:59am
Quoting moonmist
{quote} Hi Divergence, How many bars are you willing to wait for the pullback ? Thanks.
since I am using a tick chart there is not bars to count for pb as long as it doesn't go down 25 ticks from first trade I will take the pb. to give full disclosure on my 333 tick chart I added a little buffer to assist me in getting the good setups and eliminate a great portions of the bad ones its a cci set to 6 so if I am looking at a 123 short I want it to occur while in ob conditions here is same chart I posted before but with cci to show what I mean. I still get direction from 999 charts macd for momentum on 333 chart. Also on the pb to pb 2 it went ob also
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,297
  • Feb 18, 2016 11:01am Feb 18, 2016 11:01am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Nice trading, D. Cut the first lose for -3points, and here is my second ES trade. Long 123 set up. Still have my target (not shown) above 1930 for potential re-rtest of high. I'll trail my stop behind if this moves favorably.
Stop is at breakeven on the break back above 1918.50. If price trades above 1924, I will move stop to lock in 4 points. 1931.25 is my profit target.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es mp to R1 2.GIF Size: 20 KB
  • #10,298
  • Feb 18, 2016 11:04am Feb 18, 2016 11:04am
hey DD aren't you up 10 pts right now
  • #10,299
  • Feb 18, 2016 11:05am Feb 18, 2016 11:05am
Quoting Divergence
{quote}since I am using a tick chart there is not bars to count for pb as long as it doesn't go down 25 ticks from first trade I will take the pb. to give full disclosure on my 333 tick chart I added a little buffer to assist me in getting the good setups and eliminate a great portions of the bad ones its a cci set to 6 so if I am looking at a 123 short I want it to occur while in ob conditions here is same chart I posted before but with cci to show what I mean. I still get direction from 999 charts macd for momentum on 333 chart. Also on the pb...
I like your plan, D. Very sensible. Your talk of "parlay" reminded me of a study I had once done of professional gambling. In my opinion, much can be learned as far as system development and trade management from the behavior of successful gamblers - especially sports betting and card players.
  • #10,300
  • Feb 18, 2016 11:13am Feb 18, 2016 11:13am
when I was younger and had a {friend tongue in cheek}I would trade football my favorite play was the parlay. Its simply take profits and parlay them into more profits. from the movie trading opm other peoples money. that's why my first trade I attempt to get 15 sometimes like today I had to settle with 10 since it got up 12 then 13 I had to grab something. so now I have a stake for next trade that doesn't come from my acct but from profits so I just tighten stop to 10 so if I lose I break even and start sequence again
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