Commit to the Trade

Trading the EUR live: cont.





We have broke through Support, now testing for Resistance. We have moved through a Swap or Flip level. For me this Swap or Flip level/area must hold. If we close above this area I will exit the trade.

TSD

Trading the EUR live: cont.



OK.. so we had some good movement down based on the previous chart post #141. One would ask themselves where might the market retrace too? Is there a potential for a turn back short / follow through? We step down in time frame to look, what I call, " a look inside the trade ". We are looking for High Relative Volume. We have multiple areas of Supply , Wide Range Candles... relative to the down move? = Pink arrows. For my money we see the highest Volume as it relates a Wide Range Candle, being the yellow dotted line. Price did in fact turn at this small level of Supply. We now look for follow through to our target? One other interesting event .. See the High Volume Spike the coincides with the small PIN Candles that bounce off the small Supply level. See how the Relative Volume associated with this turn. It is giving us a heads up. Yes, price continued on for a bit but, eventually turned. I like to see High Relative Volume when price does return to a level.. If there is weak Volume, this creates concern... ( this is one peace to the puzzle ).

So now what? If price closes above this "established " Supply level I will exit the trade. Why? We are establishing significant levels where price must hold = Trade Management

TSD

Trading the EUR live: cont.



Looks like we are getting push in our direction. Will see?.... Patience


TSD

Hi traderinSD, do you look into the shape of the candle (pin, hanging man etc) before you enter?

Trading the EUR live: cont.




Position now moving nicely in our direction.

TSD

jovinus,

Yes..I like to see a well developed PIN.


TSD

TraderinSD, your comment will be most appreciated. Trading in EUR/USD

Trading the EUR live: cont.



Given the HH's we were experiencing earlier I decided to move my SL down and we are still in the trade. A new Supply has set up. I tend to refer to these as Interim Supply Levels if I am in the trade. Simply my way of distinction between the two main Supply/Demand levels of a trade.

What's very interesting are the two SR lines that formed some time ago. ( previous charts ) They now define, as I see it, the new Interim Supply Level. We came within 20 plus pips of our target but as of this writing we are back to about 60 plus pips to target. Hopefully we see a bounce at the Interim Supply with a final push to target. We will leave our SL in place.

TSD

I agree. I see your are using the 30M. This is a good sign as this particular style of trading requires you to look at different time frames to find the very obvious levels that appear. For me the "obvious level" is the Price / High Relative Volume relationship that defines what I am trading. I see why you drew the vertical line on the Wide Range Candle as this defines Supply nicely.

You might enjoy Hidden Gap's thread as he defines Supply Demand Levels in this manner. I tend not to define my level directly off the major Volume Spike or Spikes but rather define the strong move down ( Smart Money ) as the "activity" coming from the area of Supply or Demand. The smaller candles generally within the range preceding the aggressive move up or down define the levels for me. 90% of the time I will take the opposite color from the high to the low of the big move long or short. For example: If the move is short I would be looking for a up candle preceding the down move to define Supply. If the move is long I would be looking for a down candle preceding the move to define Demand. Again, this is not 100% especially around strong tops and bottoms.... but the High Relative Volume / Price remains the same always.

TSD

Trading the EUR live: cont.



Defining Support and Resistance. I tend ( large percentage o the time ) to define SR Levels using the Open's and Close's of candle.

See the upper white Resistance line ( down purple arrow ) and the lower yellow Support /Resistance line below ( up purple arrow ).Think in terms of a cliff. At the edge of the cliff ( were the open and close are ) is the real Support is . The wick are the ropes hanging over the cliff. Sure, you can get Support from the ropes hanging but the real strong support is the Cliff .... or Open / Close The more candles you have in this event as shown ( I like to see a minimum of 3 ) the stronger the level of SR.

IMHO ... this is what works for me. I have seen SR define both at the wicks and at the bodies. .. I prefer the bodies

TSD

TraderinSD, any particular reason on why you prefer to trade Asian Market?

@TraderinSD,

Here is how I see how to read a chart with WRB:

1. WRB draw my attention to a specific point in price action. The WRB is either a move to Supply/Demand or a repricing of an Fx pair after a high impact event.
2. I mark the open and the close of the WRB as I see that as being the most important part of the WRB. Where the move begins and where it found a balance between both sides, bulls and bears.
3. Without getting too distracted by too many price bars, I limit my attention to the highest volume price bar for each week and work off of that.
4. The candle that proceeds the WRB is very telling, it tells us if price is going to follow through in the same manner of direction as the WRB or it will have very little action, showing a high probability of reversal. My signal on how to act is if we get a candles that push through the closing value of the WRB.

The chart I offer here is trying to illustrate just these points and nothing more, which you see is very significant itself. Nice and clean. WRB Open and Close levels and the candles that push through those levels.

We can make it more complex that this of course, but I will leave it at that for now.

Thanks for sharing all your efforts!

sjc

TreaderinSD you can share this volume indicator?

Trading the EUR live: cont.



I decided to exit the trade as the momentum seemed to loosing its stream. Price came within about 15 pip of target and retraced.

Exited with 159 pips.

TSD

Hi jovinus,

I trade in the evenings on the west coast of the US. It is the market hat is available. Some seem to think the Asian is difficult to trade. I will say it does present its challenges but there is also activity from Smart Money as they are building positions during the Asian session. The use of Volume help me assess what they are doing.

TSD

Hi Coondawg71,

I really like your chart There is another trade here on FF - HiddenGap - I think ?? uses some of the same analysis. I am going to add some of your analysis to my charts. See what I can discover.

Thanks for sharing

TSD

Standard Volume indicator found in the MT4 platform.




Hope this helps

TSD

Trading the AUD Live



Here is a short I took on the 1M. We can see where the Smart Money was most active. Yellow vertical lines.




A more condense view on the 15M.




We hit our TP for 25 pips. Purple UP arrow.




I did not take the long that is clearly visible on the far right edge.

TSD

@ TraderinSD,

Thanks!

Here I have a EuroUsd 4 hr chart. I see some obvious targets below offered by a WRB from the prior weeks. I add a median (dashed blue horizontal). Very interesting price action in the recent past: something you have mentioned before, the high volume bars that don't correspond with a WRB, a true battle of position between the bulls and bears. They offer good support/resistance as they are basically waving a flag to get our attention. We see the current price bar is trying to breach an important level before moving further south in the WRB zone.

sjc

continued....

We see that the bar indeed closed lower and actually became another WRB.

Downside targets remain.

I'm still working with/learning how to utilized WRB best, you will see there is an additional support/resistance level added on the WRB wick high as it seemed to have been of significant to recent price action.

The current price bar will be the tell of what we can expect further price action to do...if a good sized down bar, then definitely more bearish price action. Should the price bar be more of an indecisive price bar, like a Doji, then odds increase that price may turn bullish in future price bars.

sjc