Commit to the Trade

Hi TraderinSD, do you consider this area in red as a zone?

Hi jovinus,



Yes...to answer your question directly. But if you look at my chart you will see something a bit different. Its what I call a " Volume Push".. Ideally we want to see Candle #1 with the highest Volume /Activity. ( defines a Supply Demand area ) But that is not always the case. So I also look for what I call a " Volume Push" As you can see they are outside the the text book Candle #1 / most Volume. When you look at the move you see the Origin of the Move = Demand just prior to Candle #1. Sam Seidenalways talks about this Origin of the Move.. All I did was to add my Volume analysis in such a way so I can define which area. As we see Candle #3 has the largest Volume but Smallest range, preceded by Candle #2 with the greatest Range.. preceded by Candle #1 with the lowest Volume but good range. So when I am looking for area I not only looking for the text book large range candle matching volume in the right place but, also a Volume Push appearing in the right place. For me it is simply telling me where Smart Money really took hold of price and moved the the market. Price can "only" move like this if Smart Money is at play. This is a bit more of an advanced way of looking at this type of trading and can be a bit challenging to explain.



Lets look at Candle #4. The pattern here is a Rise - Base - Drop.. The Drop is Candle #4 with corresponding Volume. Now look at Candle #5.. SD text book would have you seeing Drop-Base-Drop.. Price very little time side ways ( again text book ) so price should turn at this point base on the conventional thinking. But when you put Volume to both # 4 and # 5 we see a different result. Price did fade a slight bit at #5 but price did not enter this Supply with any significant Volume and looking at #4 this would have told me not to trade Supply from this Level, but to wait from price to move into the next Supply Level #4

As we can see price did continue on to the #4 Supply level ( where the volume came from ) and turn short.

In closing, for me, when I see Volume Spikes or a Volume Push, combined with Supply Demand patterns, I look to trade from these areas. Again the basis for this thought is that Smart Money is the only group that can move Forex ( Volume/Activity ) in this manner. I want to trade from the same areas as they are.

The other thing I do is to look at different time frames.... looking for Volume to really jump out at me. The premise here is that Smart Money trades in all time frames.

This way of trading is not 100% but does give me a bit more of an edge in many cases. Trust me.. I still take my losses too

Hope this helps

TSD

Trading the CAD live



Here is an example of what I was writing about earlier. Hopefully we will see some follow through



A larger Time Frame view indicates the trend is up. We also see a possible Supply level over head. IMHO when price makes its turn at the Supply or Demand act as magnets for price to return. Granted, price does not always get there in a text book way.. But price does seem to arrive more often than not. So I am trading from a Lower TF Demand with Supply in the higher TF being the magnet that hopefully pulls price upward.




TSD

Ah, I see... using volume to analyze the price leaving the zone do give different perspective. After all, it always perplexes me that zone in one time frame may not look like zone at all on different time frame. Using volume however make the zone stands out.
BTW, do you see any benefit of using Volume at Price indicator?

Volume at Price indicator? No


TSD

Trading the CAD live




We hit our target for 61 pips.

TSD

@TraderinSD,


Great thread you have created. This is the way I wish knew how to trade BEFORE I actually started "trading"/losing my funds years ago. Keep up the great posts and education of how retail traders should be looking at price action. Since we are traders of FX, yet we don't know where the players orders lay, we need to let them make their respective moves and follow in their footsteps. Looking at Wide Range Bars (body, not wick) combined with high volume measures, one bar at a time, is a great way of working our way through the markets.

Wide Range Bars can be interpreted two ways: 1.) the most obvious is heavy MMM (Market Maker Move), which in essence is a repricing of any given pair. An adjustment to value. An adjustment to their books. Usually take place post High Impact Events. To which we will see continue further away from the closing value of the given WRB. 2.) Move to Supply or Demand Zones. This one can be the confusing move for the inexperienced. "Is price moving into a known support or resistance?" "Is there recent price action to the left of current price level?" "Is the price cycle exhausted?"....These would be questions to help identify what these WRB's are trying to achieve. Is it a Market Maker Move that shall continue forward, creating a trend? Or is price manually being pushed, "manipulated", to fill a Supply or Demand order, only to retrace the WRB move and then go a trend?

I offer an image with how I see the price action, lots of chart notations. Recent price action on GbpUsd on a 4hr chart offers great points for illustration.

sjc

MOST EXCELLENT Chart Coondawg71

Yes.. Took me a long time to get it as well. Damn costly to be sure.

Thank you for the kind words and contributing to the thread. Feel free to post or commit at any time.

TSD

@TraderinSD,

Thanks for the compliment. Just trying to help/offer my experience. My apologies, I didn't realize my cursor(blue dashed x,y lines) were blocking the image. I look forward to more posts within the thread.

sjc

@TraderinSD,

Another chart that is offering some great points of interest, AudUsd.

sjc

Trading the EUR Live



#1 Candle. Highest Volume (activity) in just over 1 1/2 months. IMHO this is were Smart started the move and created Supply.
#2 Candle. Highest Volume (activity) in just over 3 months. IMHO this is were Smart started the move and created Demand.
#3 Extreme High Volume but yet no range to this candle. For me this is indecision ??? We know there is accumulation happening based on the sideways pattern. One could even say they could be looking to take price to Supply... logical in my book but ??? is this an area we can trade from..???? NOPE !
#4 Price make an aggressive move into Supply. Confirmed by good range on the candles and a strong Volume Push.

So we got short.



He is a broader picture showing how Volume is relating to Price. The point is, there are many candles that have large range between #1 and #2. But where does the highest percentage lye ? For me its #1.. Why?? Again, the only group that can move the Forex market in this manner is = the Smart Money. It just too friggin big for any other group to pull this off. We ( retail traders ) want to trade from these levels.

Target .. Why this area? Lets take a look. Starting from he 3 yellow vertical lines on the far right of the chart and looking left, we see price has created a Support Resistance level. In many cases price broke these areas with strong ( large range ) candles. When you see this happen over and over you begin to see where the real SR levels are. So for my money, this is were price should retrace to.



As you can see I held this trade over the weekend. Why? The level is strong and in a higher time frame.

Now we wait

TSD

Coondawg71

Good stuff.. Appreciate the post. Please continue on what you are seeing and how you see it. very interesting



Here is what I'm seeing now on the AUD. Price form a range and we see a Supply and Demand Area created. What I find interesting is the Volume in the middle of the Range. At #1 on Volume we see the Highest Relative Volume since Jan 28 for this time frame. The associated candle is in the middle of the range. so one would ask??? What is happening? Accumulation ( disguised ).. Smart Money then pushed price up just above the range. You know there were order sitting, waiting... to going long on the break of this range.. They took these orders adding to their inventory and then went short back to Demand. Look how strong they can into Demand. They bought is back all the way down .. Picked up the orders at Demand and they were off to the races again!



For my money.. Next stop is supply out in front

Tons of fun !

TSD

Trading the AUD Live



This set up was a Support Resistance trade. Price printed a High Relative Volume PIN candle at a Resistance area. Price then printed a second PIN candle at resistance. ( slightly less Volume ) Price then retrace back into the Resistance area on on significantly lower Volume. We then got short. Price turned and came back down with a very large print with a WIDE RANGE CANDLE. Price definitely heading for the target. Price moving with this large of a candle, in this smaller time frame, I would be looking to see is we stay with a large body and not have real amount of wick at the bottom.



As you can see we started getting some wick and, we are just off the top of the Demand level, so I took profit for 12.9 pips.

TSD

Trading the AUD Live - Part 2



This turned out to be a continuation from the short mentioned earlier today. As you can see a nice PIN Candle formed inside the SR level. We had reasonably high volume ( next screen shot ) on this PIN and it did touch a Support Line below.



So we got long as the PIN held against the range. The top white line is also Resistance. This will be a stall point as price is moving to Supply overhead. Don't be afraid of trading Support Resistance within Supply Demand levels as they can present some really good opportunities. For those who have followed my trading for a while you will recall me mentioning that Supply Demand levels can and do act like Price Magnets on many occasions. I am of the opinion that price is always looking for a place to go. Our job is to try and figure out where? Supply Demand does help us in determining that "where"



Price approaching the top Resistance Line in white. We should see some stall at this level.

TSD

Trading the EUR live: cont.



Just an update on the EUR short opened last week. Due to the holiday in the US we probably we much movement after the London session.

TSD

Trading the AUD Live - Part 2



Looks like we cleared the Resistance Line without any trouble.


TSD

Hi traderinSD, have two question:

1. what time do you usually trade the forex market?
2. How often do you look into larger time frame trend? If there is a supply and demand in your current timeframe, do you trade from both? or with respect to trend in larger TF?

Thanks

Trading the AUD Live - Part 2



Trade moving along nicely.

TSD

Hi jovinus

1. what time do you usually trade the forex market?

I tend to trade the Asian session..Maybe into the London session if the trade takes me into London.

1. How often do you look into larger time frame trend?

All the time. I look at the dominant trend based on the larger time frame

1. If there is a supply and demand in your current timeframe, do you trade from both? or with respect to trend in larger TF?

No, I try and determine where price is either being pulled to ( like the current AUD trade above ) or where price is being pushed away. As I am most often trading the Asian session I am usually between to major Supply Demand Areas. I try and trade according to where price seems to be moving to. For me price moves between Supply and Demand constantly in the higher Time Frames.

TSD

Trading the AUD Live - Part 2





We hit our target @ 40 pips for this trade.

TSD