The Really Useless Thread | Page 6958 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,141
  • Feb 11, 2016 3:01am Feb 11, 2016 3:01am
Quoting Likerty
USD/JPY 111.90's highly probable reversal area..
It just confirmed 98.60's as bear target. Looking forward for a bounce to sell towards it..
110.50 is a pivot for bullishness towards 114.30;s or bearishness towards 108.80/40
69
  • #139,142
  • Feb 11, 2016 3:03am Feb 11, 2016 3:03am
Quoting USD-Bear
heading towards 0% for 10Y Bunds.... BUND D1: {image}
Oh boy... weren't you stacking shorts on bunds a while ago? Hope you got out at an acceptable loss.
  • #139,143
  • Feb 11, 2016 3:07am Feb 11, 2016 3:07am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Oh boy... weren't you stacking shorts on bunds a while ago? Hope you got out at an acceptable loss.
yea I was, got stopped @ 162, it hurt.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #139,144
  • Feb 11, 2016 3:13am Feb 11, 2016 3:13am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} It just confirmed 98.60's as bear target. Looking forward for a bounce to sell towards it.. 110.50 is a pivot for bullishness towards 114.30;s or bearishness towards 108.80/40
110.70's - another realistic place for correction to begin from
69
  • #139,145
  • Feb 11, 2016 3:49am Feb 11, 2016 3:49am
Quoting sisse
...Europe going home falling down the cliff and there is a lot of air and very little in between at these levels (DAX 873x.x [check] ref)
Strong opening range and now officially tested my DAX level 873x.x.

For strictly TA reasons at least until tomorrow:...

-->Changing short term outlook in european equities DAX from Neutral to Soft buy and as consequences today for currencies.

--> Changing short term outlook in Euro from Neutral to Sell

1.128x only level in play for the rest of the week...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,146
  • Feb 11, 2016 5:35am Feb 11, 2016 5:35am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} yea I was, got stopped @ 162, it hurt.....
I feel the pain for you (vicariously), but hey, who dares wins right?!
I've been reading about bond (bund) behaviour but still staying clear as I don't 'feel' them, if you know what I mean.

I was wondering if you (or Sisse) had any theories on whether there was a potential 'terminal' floor to yields?

Will Bund prices just continue to climb higher and higher as more and more investors get nervous about holding falling stocks?

The Bund 2YR and 5YR yields are already negative. If 10YR yield is headed for zero the price by then may be around 177+.

With Draghi-chatter about potential easing in March I'm wondering if the negative yields have already priced in the ECB move, and so may flatten out around -0.5% (price circa 170.0 - 175.0)

The real question is how much further can yields fall (or Bund price rise)..?..
  • #139,147
  • Feb 11, 2016 5:36am Feb 11, 2016 5:36am
...and that was it for the European session. All eyes on OIL crumbs away from steel support getting hammered since last early birds got caught horribly wrong calling the bottom (noise in the street is that they were some 'famous' MACRO players and some very well know 'genius' fund manager in the industry ...).

Whatever the case -16% !!! just this week and counting. NY will / can put an end to this ....for now, OIL trading air at these levels and nobody is willing to take the other side on a super sharp falling knife ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,148
  • Feb 11, 2016 5:49am Feb 11, 2016 5:49am
Quoting bullionman
{quote} I feel the pain for you (vicariously), but hey, who dares wins right?! I've been reading about bond (bund) behaviour but still staying clear as I don't 'feel' them, if you know what I mean. I was wondering if you (or Sisse) had any theories on whether there was a potential 'terminal' floor to yields? The Bund 2YR and 5YR yields are already negative. If 10YR yield is headed for zero the price by then may be around 177+. With Draghi-chatter about potential easing in March I'm wondering if the negative yields have already priced in the ECB...
around 167 will be enough to reach 0%
That would be the floor without ECB intervening.
But ECB's QE means print money and buy bonds and as long as they do that there is no yield-floor.
The only thing is waiting for a change in expectations or reality like:
-faster economic growth then expected
-inflationary pressures or less deflationary
-China selling US-Treasuries
-stocks recovering
-Draghi telling in March no expansion in QE
etc.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #139,149
  • Feb 11, 2016 5:49am Feb 11, 2016 5:49am
Quoting sisse
...and that was it for the European session. All eyes on OIL crumbs away from steel support getting hammered since last early birds got caught horribly wrong calling the bottom (noise in the street is that they were some 'famous' MACRO players and some very well know 'genius' fund manager in the industry ...). Whatever the case -16% !!! just this week and counting. NY will / can put an end to this ....for now, OIL trading air at these levels and nobody is willing to take the other side on a super sharp falling knife ... sisse
any thoughts about JPY and particulary UJ for reference ?
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #139,150
  • Feb 11, 2016 6:01am Feb 11, 2016 6:01am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} around 167 will be enough to reach 0% That would be the floor without ECB intervening. But ECB's QE means print money and buy bonds and as long as they do that there is no yield-floor. The only thing is waiting for a change in expectations or reality like: -faster economic growth then expected -inflationary pressures or less deflationary -China selling US-Treasuries -stocks recovering -Draghi telling in March no expansion in QE etc.
That break 160.xx was a very heavy blow TA wise and pretty much killed the highs until March ECB but given the latest developments ...things looks rather naked to even consider a top...

Quoting hoom
{quote} any thoughts about JPY and particulary UJ for reference ?
Nothing new since the last update ...here:

Quoting sisse
---> JPY...."A long term bottom confirmed"

JPY was the other with something in play for the yearly close. We are going to hold the 120.xx handle marking a confirmed LONG TERM bottom in UJ locking levels for decades to come as high as the 90.xx handle. However, on the mid term holding 120.xx for the Q close also will extend current chop zone for the next Quarter or so while DOLLAR takes control.
Quote
Expecting BOJ to start softening down[check] late Q2 and yen start to fade down below 120.xx for a sharp momentum [check] leg toward 100.xx [in play]that will leave us chopping around till the end 2016.

Short term, the leg is pretty much over, crumbs away 110.3x. As soon as we short term bottom in OIL we are going for a sharp retrace 116.7x with strong intermedia stop 113.9x.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,151
  • Feb 11, 2016 6:06am Feb 11, 2016 6:06am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} The only thing is waiting for a change in expectations or reality like: -faster economic growth then expected -inflationary pressures or less deflationary -China selling US-Treasuries -stocks recovering -Draghi telling in March no expansion in QE etc.
Interesting.
A lot of variables there, most of them are trackable, except China selling US-Treasuries which apparently happened to some extent last year. Not sure when it started, for how long or why (or the extent of 'hyperbole' in the article).
  • #139,152
  • Feb 11, 2016 6:22am Feb 11, 2016 6:22am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Changing short term outlook in Euro from Neutral to Sell
1.128x only level in play for the rest of the week... sisse
I dont exacly understand how to play this 1.128 level in play in your Sell short term outlook.... everything what is above, we should sell? or sell only on the levels extension like 1,134x ???
  • #139,153
  • Feb 11, 2016 6:25am Feb 11, 2016 6:25am
Quoting bullionman
{quote} Interesting. A lot of variables there, most of them are trackable, except China selling US-Treasuries which apparently happened to some extent last year. Not sure when it started, fo how long or why (or the extent of 'hyperbole' in the article).
Nice article, it underlines the disparity of investors, there is nothing to buy anymore maybe its time to buy some agricultural's like sugar, corn wheat a sector where farmers hardly survive these days and global weather changes more and more tend to influence crops harvests in a negative way.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #139,154
  • Feb 11, 2016 6:56am Feb 11, 2016 6:56am
Quoting bullionman
{quote} Interesting. A lot of variables there, most of them are trackable, except China selling US-Treasuries which apparently happened to some extent last year. Not sure when it started, for how long or why (or the extent of 'hyperbole' in the article).
Yeh there was quite large amount sold few hundred bill, FX reserves are more important factor however. They are draining those at fast speed. As long as Chinese economy stays in downturn it will countiniue along with yuan devaluation. They are mixing the two to get best possible result, sparing reserves would only leave too agressive QE/devaluation on board.
  • #139,155
  • Feb 11, 2016 7:01am Feb 11, 2016 7:01am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} SA and neighbors can swing the price if they want to, I'd bet a more likely scenario is a grand bargain to cut output, but maybe this is quite some time away, who knows?...maybe an emergency OPEC meeting?.......maybe the next regular meeting first week of June?..........anyway, the question for a trader is: how to trade oil now? or, should I wait? Personally, I am waiting to see wti fall below $25 before I go superbull - the latter meaning I would sell puts to fund long call spreads....in my dream I see this trade unfolding in the latter...
Talkin my language....
  • #139,156
  • Feb 11, 2016 7:02am Feb 11, 2016 7:02am
Quoting sisse
{quote} That break 160.xx was a very heavy blow TA wise and pretty much killed the highs until March ECB but given the latest developments ...things looks rather naked to even consider a top... {quote} Nothing new since the last update ...here: {quote} {quote} Short term, the leg is pretty much over, crumbs away 110.3x. As soon as we short term bottom in OIL we are going for a sharp retrace 116.7x with strong intermedia stop 113.9x. sisse
With FED hikes, and BOJ NIRPing 90 looks like offscale target. 105-110 sure, but lower than 105 or 100 for that matter dont know, unless there is very dovish FOMC/hawkish ECB in March.
And then there is also BOJ, just spiking JPY 200 pips downwards (alltough it has retraced most of it already heh).
  • #139,157
  • Feb 11, 2016 7:17am Feb 11, 2016 7:17am
hey @IMARICH1: are u fading the 1,134x lvl for prepositing for tomorrow german GDP and short/mid term?

I should as I layed out in my plan yesterday. However, I guess im gonna wait for NY as the parabolic gold move looks like this is more risk-off to come as soon as today - higher spikes in E/U. Lol this timing is really pain plus the volatility + risk-off times it even worse :/
  • #139,158
  • Feb 11, 2016 7:25am Feb 11, 2016 7:25am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} 90 looks like offscale target. 105-110 sure, but lower than 105 or 100 for that matter dont know
This was interesting, regarding YEN 110 being the minimum before the situation is considered serious:
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/201.../#.VryKci4jC98
  • #139,159
  • Edited 8:01am Feb 11, 2016 7:33am | Edited 8:01am
chester123,

Unfortunately, on my live account I can not due to leverage. With all we have been watching FA/TA, I just didn't anticipate .1400 handle or HIGHER being in the cards since OIL and EQUITIES were at these lows and EU was trying to manage to break thru .097X. The most I saw was .135X as Steel Support if all went awry This is what I leveraged for. It did and here we are.

I thought I got CHEAP AND GOOD seats for the MID TERM LEG at my levels. I was wrong due to TIMING. Now, I have to sit and wait for these Openers to play and get thru their numbers before the main show that starts! Hope I am around to see what I paid to watch. FYI: I don't like these opening acts!

Nevertheless, I have been fading the HIGHS of the close on EU on my demo account which is not as rewarding (profit wise)and took sisse's challenge. I believe...I know the demo will pan out as to what he was referring to. These will better seats.
  • #139,160
  • Edited 8:42am Feb 11, 2016 8:02am | Edited 8:42am
Quoting IMARICH1
chester123, Unfortunately, on my live account I can not due to leverage. With all we have been watching FA/TA, I just didn't anticipate .1400 handle being in the cards since OIL and EQUITIES were at these lows and EU was trying to manage to break thru .097X. The most I saw was .135X as Steel Support if all went awry. It did and here we are. I thought I got CHEAP AND GOOD seats for the MID TERM LEG at my levels. I was wrong due to TIMING. Now, I have to sit and wait for these Openers to play and get thru their numbers for the main show...
Completely understand. In any case this leg up was pretty tricky as clouded by the equities and oil route - even though now it looks nice and measured. I did not play the ping pong in between and suprisingly managed to not jump into the mid term leg too early. But honestly: Ive been in your situation many and many times. The worst thing is patience. And mostly with mid term swings ---- from my experience: You/I think that you could/would not mind miss/ing a short term swing but there may be only 2/3 mid term swings in a year. And clearly everyone wants to catch them from the beginning to a pip (wrongly!) and not miss them!! Thats why tracking these mid term ones is much harder mentally as it takes so much time to wait for them and than you dont wanna miss them and the frustration gets bigger the longer is the waiting and its so easy to press the trigger much much earlier ---- as happened to me many times.

But I bet the trick is in what sisse wrote --- if we take into account that the mid term swing composes of many short term/news flows - and you can jump in on the nods in the mid term swing if one was not lucky enough to fade the very lvl where the mid term swing starts-- with this in mind Its much easier to have relaxed attitude to these mid term turning points/beginnings of mid term swings. Well, Im still learning like you - cuz I would be suprised if next time I was not in your position - the dificult part is that timing is not only about charts and price but also about what one can stand mentally Lol, one day we gonna be masters of timing!
24 traders viewing now