110.50 is a pivot for bullishness towards 114.30;s or bearishness towards 108.80/40
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The Really Useless System 25 replies
Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies
The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies
Disliked{quote} Oh boy... weren't you stacking shorts on bunds a while ago? Hope you got out at an acceptable loss.Ignored
Disliked{quote} It just confirmed 98.60's as bear target. Looking forward for a bounce to sell towards it.. 110.50 is a pivot for bullishness towards 114.30;s or bearishness towards 108.80/40Ignored
Disliked...Europe going home falling down the cliff and there is a lot of air and very little in between at these levels (DAX 873x.x [check] ref)Ignored
Disliked{quote} I feel the pain for you (vicariously), but hey, who dares wins right?! I've been reading about bond (bund) behaviour but still staying clear as I don't 'feel' them, if you know what I mean. I was wondering if you (or Sisse) had any theories on whether there was a potential 'terminal' floor to yields? The Bund 2YR and 5YR yields are already negative. If 10YR yield is headed for zero the price by then may be around 177+. With Draghi-chatter about potential easing in March I'm wondering if the negative yields have already priced in the ECB...Ignored
Disliked...and that was it for the European session. All eyes on OIL crumbs away from steel support getting hammered since last early birds got caught horribly wrong calling the bottom (noise in the street is that they were some 'famous' MACRO players and some very well know 'genius' fund manager in the industry ...). Whatever the case -16% !!! just this week and counting. NY will / can put an end to this ....for now, OIL trading air at these levels and nobody is willing to take the other side on a super sharp falling knife ... sisseIgnored
Disliked{quote} around 167 will be enough to reach 0% That would be the floor without ECB intervening. But ECB's QE means print money and buy bonds and as long as they do that there is no yield-floor. The only thing is waiting for a change in expectations or reality like: -faster economic growth then expected -inflationary pressures or less deflationary -China selling US-Treasuries -stocks recovering -Draghi telling in March no expansion in QE etc.Ignored
Disliked---> JPY...."A long term bottom confirmed"
JPY was the other with something in play for the yearly close. We are going to hold the 120.xx handle marking a confirmed LONG TERM bottom in UJ locking levels for decades to come as high as the 90.xx handle. However, on the mid term holding 120.xx for the Q close also will extend current chop zone for the next Quarter or so while DOLLAR takes control.Ignored
QuoteDislikedExpecting BOJ to start softening down[check]late Q2and yen start to fade down below 120.xx for a sharp momentum [check] leg toward 100.xx [in play]that will leave us chopping around till the end 2016.
Disliked{quote} The only thing is waiting for a change in expectations or reality like: -faster economic growth then expected -inflationary pressures or less deflationary -China selling US-Treasuries -stocks recovering -Draghi telling in March no expansion in QE etc.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Changing short term outlook in Euro from Neutral to Sell
1.128x only level in play for the rest of the week... sisseIgnored
Disliked{quote} Interesting. A lot of variables there, most of them are trackable, except China selling US-Treasuries which apparently happened to some extent last year. Not sure when it started, fo how long or why (or the extent of 'hyperbole' in the article).Ignored
Disliked{quote} Interesting. A lot of variables there, most of them are trackable, except China selling US-Treasuries which apparently happened to some extent last year. Not sure when it started, for how long or why (or the extent of 'hyperbole' in the article).Ignored
Disliked{quote} SA and neighbors can swing the price if they want to, I'd bet a more likely scenario is a grand bargain to cut output, but maybe this is quite some time away, who knows?...maybe an emergency OPEC meeting?.......maybe the next regular meeting first week of June?..........anyway, the question for a trader is: how to trade oil now? or, should I wait? Personally, I am waiting to see wti fall below $25 before I go superbull - the latter meaning I would sell puts to fund long call spreads....in my dream I see this trade unfolding in the latter...Ignored
Disliked{quote} That break 160.xx was a very heavy blow TA wise and pretty much killed the highs until March ECB but given the latest developments ...things looks rather naked to even consider a top... {quote} Nothing new since the last update ...here: {quote} {quote} Short term, the leg is pretty much over, crumbs away 110.3x. As soon as we short term bottom in OIL we are going for a sharp retrace 116.7x with strong intermedia stop 113.9x. sisseIgnored
Disliked{quote} 90 looks like offscale target. 105-110 sure, but lower than 105 or 100 for that matter dont knowIgnored
Dislikedchester123, Unfortunately, on my live account I can not due to leverage. With all we have been watching FA/TA, I just didn't anticipate .1400 handle being in the cards since OIL and EQUITIES were at these lows and EU was trying to manage to break thru .097X. The most I saw was .135X as Steel Support if all went awry. It did and here we are. I thought I got CHEAP AND GOOD seats for the MID TERM LEG at my levels. I was wrong due to TIMING. Now, I have to sit and wait for these Openers to play and get thru their numbers for the main show...Ignored