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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,101
  • Edited 6:13am Feb 10, 2016 6:08am | Edited 6:13am
Quoting chester123
OK, Ive been thinking more about this and I think there is a mistake in my analysis when it comes to timing and the wave structure!!! I keep the old post in case anyone wants to see where this comes from and where its heading. Sorry for the length!!! Here is what I wanna correct: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- On E/U: For the leg to evolve we need the oil/equities and most importnatly China to be clear so the unwinding of carry trade and risk off does not weight on the price...
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Great value at these areas and agree with your map, Chester. The trick was not to lose our shirts on the way up or better yet, profit from the volatility. I think you've got the techs covered there- definitely from a R/R point of view.

In my case it's just about taking back the key levels: the yearly levels on equities; 96.27 on the dollar (still holding the breach for now.) and 1.1143 on the pair to put a mid-term floor on the dollar.

Equities are itching to unwind the latest moves plus I suspect an asymmetric play from German GDP and we're where I suspect Yellen has to really go out of her way to further disrupt the dollar because we already priced in a very dovish scenario for the year on this brief bout of volatility. I think recent action and diminishing returns from aggressive monetary policy (especially from JPN who have been on that path for a long time.) will make her even more steadfast on the normalisation path. She's got a softer dollar to work with (for now.) too.

So anticipating common sense from Yellen and just concentrating domestically mentioning "full employment" and a focus on domestic and inflation data where there were already encouraging signs from the latter with the last NFP. And that alone dictating the path of hikes for the year. March may be off the table but once markets settle down it could be a lot more hawkish than expected.
  • #139,102
  • Feb 10, 2016 6:20am Feb 10, 2016 6:20am
Agree with you as well ClinicalEX!! And definitely on Yellen

Practically I would like to see the 1,134 lvl again today or tomorrow as I would take this aggresive entry into the short/mid term as well. Even though there are gonna be other opp to load the mid term on the first retrace as suggested.... weŽll see. For now yellen is the first step even though not much expected as u suggest
  • #139,103
  • Feb 10, 2016 6:32am Feb 10, 2016 6:32am
Quoting chester123
Even though there are gonna be other opp to load the mid term on the first retrace as suggested....
Chester, what is the target for mid term leg? Are we going to make a lower low, i.e. below 1.046x? What do you think?
  • #139,104
  • Feb 10, 2016 6:47am Feb 10, 2016 6:47am
Quoting Maks
{quote} Chester, what is the target for mid term leg? Are we going to make a lower low, i.e. below 1.046x? What do you think?
well, i have 1,050x as the 2015 low and bellow its not so clear to me. From some conversations with sisse I recall he has 1,020x and 0,98x. So maybe we could say 1,020 as a target and 0,98x max extension. However, I think the map is gonna get clearer on the way cuz there is also a lot of fundamental uncernties I guess so for now those lvls may be unlocked but for me too far away to call them.

In any case if I ever manage to even just try to load for the mid term - I would hold for the 2015 low minimum and lower - the pace/scope is gonna be detrmined by the news flows/short term legs in between. But in any case I would be very vigilant for any "game changers" as sisse call them for there sems to be nothing certain these times!
  • #139,105
  • Feb 10, 2016 7:48am Feb 10, 2016 7:48am
Quoting Maks
{quote} Chester, what is the target for mid term leg? Are we going to make a lower low, i.e. below 1.046x? What do you think?
Not before making a new high I.e., 1.171xx ... In my book ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,106
  • Feb 10, 2016 7:58am Feb 10, 2016 7:58am
We need to see the amount of the ecb qe extension in march. On my side i'm betting on big nuke from ecb. We got awful economic data in ez plus zero inflation plus eurusd back to high level plus that time no fed interference compared to last december where rates hike was 99% sure
  • #139,107
  • Feb 10, 2016 8:00am Feb 10, 2016 8:00am
€100 billions ?
  • #139,108
  • Feb 10, 2016 9:13am Feb 10, 2016 9:13am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} dax med term targets hit.. possible bounce soon. eu pullback 1161 normally expected before 1374/99+.. atm high 1249.. atm level 1237 {image}
dax no bounce target yet.. uj had hit 114.95 also. it usually will bounce some also. unless uj gets above 115.54,, the dax (equities )and eu drop. probably wont go far. eu normal drop is 1161/64 (1164/1086) 1115/1086 a support zone. just below 1161 is 1159. a valid st bull target to 1374/99 exist as long as above 1086.. even than uj +- 115.54 should be taking into consideration. uj 106.xx drop still a target
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  • #139,109
  • Edited 10:01am Feb 10, 2016 9:47am | Edited 10:01am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} dax no bounce target yet.. uj had hit 114.95 also. it usually will bounce some also. unless uj gets above 115.54,, the dax (equities )and eu drop. probably wont go far. eu normal drop is 1161/64 (1164/1086) 1115/1086 a support zone. just below 1161 is 1159. a valid st bull target to 1374/99 exist as long as above 1086.. even than uj +- 115.54 should be taking into consideration. uj 106.xx drop still a target {image}
Indeed. 'Everything' ok now...chaos averted ...for now. Nice call on the dax, my reference was a handful of ticks below but it was a soft one in my case so pretty much I'll take that too. On the rest simple legs with same levels same trades same all till Friday...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,110
  • Feb 10, 2016 10:08am Feb 10, 2016 10:08am
Important updates coming with the European close.

--> Changing short term outlook in OIL from strong sell to NEUTRAL...will revaluate when China comes back to the table next week.

--> Changing short term outlook in GOLD from buy to NEUTRAL.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,111
  • Feb 10, 2016 11:31am Feb 10, 2016 11:31am
Quoting sisse
Important updates coming with the European close. --> Changing short term outlook in OIL from strong sell to NEUTRAL...will revaluate when China comes back to the table next week. --> Changing short term outlook in GOLD from buy to NEUTRAL. sisse
Actually, sisse, maybe stupid question but the outlooks:

do I understand it well that the state of neutral/(strong)sell/(strong)buy short/mid/long term outlook represents the state of the price as being in a swing at the given timeframe? Or is it more as describing the dominant fundamental forces at the given level?

Its more the second option, right? I.e. right now there is strong sell mid term but the price has not started yet the mid term swing cuz its still being in the 2015 range so the mid term leg is not really evolving - the renge is just being composed of many short term up/downs.

Maybe its nonsense to know this.... but I was interested if the "outlook" describes the price being in certain swing on certain timeframe or if it describes the fundamental forces. Most of the time these two thing are gonna corespond but not always, right? Cuz as the example shows.... we have strong sell mid term but the price is not yet in the swing.

Thank you
  • #139,112
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:07pm Feb 10, 2016 1:07pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Actually, sisse, maybe stupid question but the outlooks: do I understand it well that the state of neutral/(strong)sell/(strong)buy short/mid/long term outlook represents the state of the price as being in a swing at the given timeframe? Or is it more as describing the dominant fundamental forces at the given level? Its more the second option, right? I.e. right now there is strong sell mid term but the price has not started yet the mid term swing cuz its still being in the 2015 range so the mid term leg is not really evolving - the renge...
NP.Outlook represent the 'path of least resistance' for trading in the specific TF. As you well point out is the stronger fundamental bias not necessarily in the exact level when I write it. So a short term outlook buy implies look for trading opps to that side whatever is your trigger of TA is irrelevant.I hope it helps sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,113
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:44pm Feb 10, 2016 1:44pm
Just for some humor.
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  • #139,114
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:57pm Feb 10, 2016 1:57pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} NP.Outlook represent the 'path of least resistance' for trading in the specific TF. As you well point out is the stronger fundamental bias not necessarily in the exact level when I write it. So a short term outlook buy implies look for trading opps to that side whatever is your trigger of TA is irrelevant.I hope it helps sisse
The second sentence completely answers the question I mean thats what I intuitively thought but intuition is not always the best guide Thank you
  • #139,115
  • Feb 10, 2016 2:00pm Feb 10, 2016 2:00pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
Just for some humor. {image}
You are in the wrong thread, nobody in this thread is interested in what you're selling.
  • #139,116
  • Feb 10, 2016 2:14pm Feb 10, 2016 2:14pm
Anywho. I'm still maintaining the oil goes to $20. Lots of weakness in it. Look at the volume on the upbars on /CL four hour. All of that selling.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #139,117
  • Feb 10, 2016 2:26pm Feb 10, 2016 2:26pm
Wow. EURUSD was bought up heavily during European session today. Looks like it wants to go to 1.20+.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #139,118
  • Feb 10, 2016 2:42pm Feb 10, 2016 2:42pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
Wow. EURUSD was bought up heavily during European session today. Looks like it wants to go to 1.20+.
From your profile seems that these 3 posts are your 3 highest quality ones. In any case im not police here but it seems like stupid trolling to which noone is used and willing to get used to
  • #139,119
  • Feb 10, 2016 3:07pm Feb 10, 2016 3:07pm
Very interesting to note how Janet Yellen highlighted the belief that "dollar strength" could weigh on economic activity, when there has been a depreciation in excess of 2.5% in the DXY since December's hike. Taking into account this contradiction, one can judge that these carefully chosen words by Janet Yellen are her way of letting the market know that the Fed is relaxed about the depreciation seen in the dollar of late and thinks further weakening would be a welcome stimulus.
  • #139,120
  • Feb 10, 2016 3:07pm Feb 10, 2016 3:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} dax no bounce target yet.. uj had hit 114.95 also. it usually will bounce some also. unless uj gets above 115.54,, the dax (equities )and eu drop. probably wont go far. eu normal drop is 1161/64 (1164/1086) 1115/1086 a support zone. just below 1161 is 1159. a valid st bull target to 1374/99 exist as long as above 1086.. even than uj +- 115.54 should be taking into consideration. uj 106.xx drop still a target {image}
Next time you're in contact with Mr. kenfen please encourage him to take out the trash
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